Situation Report

25th February 2001

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Peace talks in two months - cbk

For the third time in succession, President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga said a firm 'no' to the LTTE's call to accept its unilateral ceasefire, now extended for a third month.

This time, her refusal came from New Delhi, where she was on a three day visit.

"Just the ceasefire itself doesn't mean a thing, because the LTTE has had several ceasefires … and they have played the fool with it," she told CNN's South Asia Bureau Chief, Satinder Bindra, in an exclusive interview at the Taj Palace at Chanakyapura in New Delhi. The LTTE had offered several ceasefires before but never agreed to talk about substantive issues, she pointed out.

The ceasefire was purely to re-arm and re-group their forces, she said. "They never agree to talk about substantive issues in order to end the war, because they don't want to end the war," she said. "They are an organisation that we must not forget is born, bred, fed and lived on violence," she said.

"We are willing to have a 100 ceasefires. But we have offered much more, a permanent peace… to sit down at the table and talk issues," she said.

In a news release faxed to the media from its so called International Secretariat in London, the LTTE said:

"The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in an official statement issued from its headquarters in Vanni, Northern Sri Lanka, extended its unilateral cessation of hostilities for another month, from 24th February, to 24th March 2001.

" The organisation has also appealed to the international community, particularly the United States, Britain, European Union and India to persuade the Sri Lankan government to reciprocate favourably to this goodwill gesture and resume negotiations in a cordial atmosphere of peace and normalcy.

"The LTTE has been strictly observing a self-imposed truce for the last two months in spite of provocative military operations by the Sri Lankan armed forces. The Tamil Tigers declared a month long cease-fire on 24th December 2000 as a gesture of peace and goodwill for the festive season and called upon the Government of Sri Lanka to reciprocate positively. But the government of Chandrika Kumaratunga rejected the LTTE's peace offer as a 'political stunt' and launched major offensive operations in the Jaffna peninsula to regain territories at the cost of casualties on both sides.

" The LTTE strictly observed peace and engaged only to defensive war during the period. To demonstrate its genuine desire for peace the Tamil Tigers extended the unilateral cessation of hostilities for another month from 24th January 2001 to 14 February 2001.

"We have decided to extend the truce for another month as a gesture of goodwill and to provide further space and time to help to promote the facilitatory peace effort undertaken by the Norwegian government. In spite of serious military disadvantages in a defensive war, our decision to observe peace for a further period simply demonstrates our serious and sincere commitment to peace and peaceful means of resolving the political conflict. We are determined to offer maximum opportunity to peace efforts because the entire Tamil nation yearns for peace and normalcy.

"It is the collective inspiration of the Tamil community that the war which has been ravaging our historical homeland for decades should be brought to an end and peace talks commence. There is growing mass upsurgence in Tamil area demanding peace and self-determination, in defiance of Sinhala military occupation and repression. It is in compliance with the collective will of our people we are pursuing the path of peace", the LTTE's statement declared.

Despite the assertion that they were only playing a defensive role in the ongoing battles, military officials say LTTE mortar barrages on the new Muhamalai defences in the Jaffna peninsula were a daily occurrence.

This was whilst cadres were being re-trained both in the Wanni and in a number of locations in the east. This week, intelligence sources were also speaking about fresh procurements the LTTE were making from a country which is a leading manufacturer of military hardware. Details on what the items were was still sketchy.

The security forces, on the other hand, are on a concerted re-training programme as most of their procurements have now begun to arrive. Since the Government has made it clear that the LTTE's self imposed ceasefire is no barrier to any offensive operations, the likelihood of further military crack downs on the LTTE cannot be ruled out. This of course is until Norway, which is now playing the role of a facilitator, succeeds in bringing the two sides for direct talks.

Mrs. Kumaratunga told CNN this process would take two months. In other words, talks proper cannot begin until May.

Of course, she made it clear the Government was interested in starting talks "as fast as possible." She said "We don't have two agendas. We have only one clear objective, to somehow end this war and usher peace."

However, the delay according to President Kumaratunga, appears to be on the part of the LTTE. "They are insisting on conditions. They say the atmosphere must be conducive before we begin talks," she said.

President Kumaratunga also told CNN troops were consolidating their positions after significant gains made recently in the north. She said the LTTE was very weak and had lost more than half its cadres.

Most others had run away. This may be the major reason for them to talk peace, she explained.

Another reason, she said, was the international community. They have now realised that the LTTE is not a liberation organisation but a terrorist organisation.

Mrs. Kumaratunga and her entourage return to Colombo today at the end of a three day official visit to New Delhi. The main thrust of her visit was to rejuvenate the SAARC – South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation – which has remained dormant since General Pervaiz Musharaff seized power in Pakistan.

She also seized the opportunity to brief Indian leaders on the recent Norwegian initiatives towards peace and the progress made so far.

Asked by Mr. Bindra how hard it would be to shake hands with the LTTE leaders, who nearly succeeded in having her assassinated, President Kumaratunga replied "I have learnt to compartmentalise my life, my feelings and my thoughts. I sit at the table and talk with people I detest. I do so simply in the best interest of my people and my country."

In President Kumarat-unga's own words, peace talks will become a reality in two months. She would have to shake hands or talk to people whom she has detested most. Whether that would see the end to a prolonged 18 year long separatist war remains the billion dollar question.

Former Air Chief tells President follow 'my vision' to end the ongoing war

Almost three years after retiring as Commander of the Sri Lanka Air Force, Air Marshal Oliver Mathew Ranasinghe, has written to President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumara-tunga, telling her how to end the 18 year long separatist war – follow his own action programme titled "My Vision."

An unsolicited four page document, accompanied by a page long letter by Air Marshal Ranasinghe tells President Kumaratunga, the Commander-in-Chief of the nation's security forces, what is now wrong with the war effort and what she should do.

He is critical of the Army and the Navy and calls for an increasing role for the Air Force. He also says "what I wanted to achieve for the Air Force and to the country has not been achieved to date," in the letter dated December 5, 2000. Here are edited excerpts:

"My vision"

"The present conflict between the Sri Lanka armed forces and the LTTE has been going on for the last 18 years. To date we have not been able to get them on their knees…..

" I may term, "My Vision" (sic) how to bring about an effective military contribution to this problem which will help the politician to arrive at a lasting solution for this country to survive as one nation in the future.

"As such this vision is spelt out very briefly. It will be some help to the country and to ease my conscience.

BACKGROUND

"At present we are fighting a war which I say is not ours but that of India's. We are fighting it in our country for India. No country will want to fight a war in their own country, but today we have brought the war into the country and are fighting a guerrilla war in the jungle. This has proved so far that we cannot win …….

"Like the Americans we should have fought the war in somebody else's country such as India, UK, Germany or Canada where funds are being generated to the LTTE. We are not powerful enough to do so.

"We fight a battle on land, inside the country and we have kept the sea open. By doing this we have given the enemy freedom of movement to take their injured across to India and other countries, to transport medicine, arms and ammunition and for the LTTE top cadres to move overseas freely…….

"There is nothing on record to say that LTTE has got their supplies through BIA (Bandaranaike International Airport) or the Colombo harbour. All their supplies come from the sea where they use the coastline of 600 kilometres from Kalpitiya to Kumana freely.

Concept

"The concept is to fight our war somewhere else and not on our soil. So the best we could do is to take the war to the sea where we convert the guerrilla war to a conventional war….. where the enemy has no place to hide……..

How to implemet the concept
Army

"Army has to harass the enemy all the time…. In fact they should continue to do what they are doing now at a faster pace but not concentrate on holding more than the required. If the Army thinks they are the only fighting force and this is their war and they could win it, they are wrong. This is what was happening during the last 18 years.

"Over the years the Army managed to convince the politicians and increased the strength, grabbed the lion's share of the available funds, promised the politician something better than the "promised land", brought the war into the land and are fighting at their own cool pace pushing the Navy and the Air Force to a supporting role only. That is why we are in this "no win" situation today.

"Army should concentrate on increasing the number of fighting cadres and reducing the support cadres. Sri Lanka Army has only about 15,000 fighting troops …………, that is scattered all over the country thus increasing the strength of support cadres. They must try to do away with the small Army camps that are in peaceful areas……...

"For the last 18 years the Sri Lanka Army has been fighting in the jungle. This is an impossible task for a human being. The troops today are tired of fighting and their morale is low. They are losing the will to fight because the same soldier is made to fight over and over. They must be provided with better food, transport and sufficient breaks to recuperate. Good leadership to motivate the soldier is something that is difficult to find today. It will be even more difficult tomorrow. So more responsibility must be taken by the Navy and the Air Force.

Navy

"We do not have positive control of vessels sailing in our territorial waters and EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). This has given the basic principle of war – "freedom of movement" on a platter to the LTTE.

"It is so sad that Navy even does not know the exact location of their own vessels at any one time. They have to ask the vessel commander where he is, and if he gives a wrong location there is no way that one could check on him.

"So the Navy must work to have positive control of all vessels in the territorial waters and EEZ including their vessels.

How to achieve positive control:

o All fishing boats of the country must be registered like motor vehicles.

o A chip must be introduced to each boat and sealed so that SLAF or maritime command centre could interrogate via satellite and establish friend or foe and position.

o Continuous track of all merchant and other vessels to be kept.

o Maritime command and control centre must co-ordinate with the Navy, Air Force and shipping agencies.

Change the concept of operations of the Navy

"Today, the Navy prefers to operate 10 to 15 miles away from the coast to avoid land based enemy gun fire, and also prefer to operate bigger vessels. This gives freedom of operation to the LTTE hugging the coast line.

"Navy operating in bigger vessels is like trying to run down a motor cycle in a lorry in an open ground. The motor cycle could out manoeuvre the lorry. This is what is happening today, where LTTE operates in small boats in groups of two to three. The Navy too has to operate in small boats bigger than the enemy, more powerful machine power and fire power than the enemy as a group in bigger numbers than the enemy, like five to six vessels together, with each boat operated by three to four personnel.

So this composition of a "pack" must patrol the seas day and night so that the Navy dominates and patrols systematically 24 hours of the day in cluster covering the coast line.

Air Force

"It is sad that Air Force has no equipped and dedicated maritime patrol aircraft …….. In the late 60's Air Force carried out anti-illegal immigrant patrols in Dove aircraft. Today not even that type of patrols are carried out ……. What the Air Force has to do is to patrol the sea (600kms) 24 hours, 365 days of the year systematically, forever, not allowing any movement undetected.

"It is so important that we patrol whether there is peace or no peace. Air Force should be equipped with appropriate and dedicated maritime patrol craft that could carry out observation from above the missile bubble i.e. 18,000 feet and carry out surveillance electronically, unheard and unseen by the enemy.

If we try to carry out surveillance below this level, the aircraft will not survive the second day in the sky.

"Air Force maritime patrol aircraft must be able to interrogate the sea vessels, find out friend or foe using computer and satellite technology. Once identified enemy must be destroyed in coordination with the Navy.

"The maritime patrol aircraft must be capable of flying and detecting in the night as well as bad weather. By doing so systematically .. ……. , the freedom of the enemy could be totally restricted so that the enemy will not be able to get arms, ammunition and medicine etc. freely. This will make them run dry gradually and weaken them on land.

"During my tenure of office, the Commander-in-Chief, Her Excellency the President approved the purchase of maritime patrol aircraft in 1996 and pilots carried out training in USA. Unfortunately this tender was cancelled. However, it must be mentioned that the local agent of one of the tenderers for the aircraft, who tendered, had somehow gone to USA during the evaluation, where the present commander was the team leader, and told Sri Lanka Air Force evaluating team that he will see that these maritime patrol aircraft are never purchased to the Air Force. True to his word they were cancelled and never purchased to date, allowing the enemy a free run in the sea.

"If the Air Force does not gain control of the sea together with the Navy, then the next step will be that the Air Force will not be able to patrol at all as the enemy may acquire land based surface to air missiles in addition to the shoulder fired missiles that they have.

Then we will lose the air superiority that is enjoyed to some extent today. We will be left with only satellite tracking which is very costly.

"To achieve this Navy strength must be increased to 25,000 and Air Force also to 25,000 where the Army strength could be reduced by 40 per cent gradually over a period of time."

Air Marshal Ranasinghe wants to further discuss his "My Vision" with President Kumaratunga.

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