War is over but problems remain
The Gulf war is over and all of us can breathe a collective sigh of relief. The dire predictions of a sharp downturn in the economy had the war been prolonged can now be set aside.

The crisis caused by the war highlighted our dependence on the Middle East for much of our foreign exchange earnings.

So closely is our economy tied to the Middle East that the shock of the war, and the dislocation caused by the uncertainty even before the actual fighting started, was immediate.

The most visible impact was on the Ceylon tea trade. The Middle East is one of the two biggest markets for our low grown teas, which now make up more than half the crop and are produced by thousands of smallholders mainly in the south. This is too important a vote base for any government to ignore.

In the run-up to and during the war, tea prices fell sharply and significant quantities remained unsold because of reduced demand from buyers who are uncertain about the timely arrival of shipments and the ability to move the tea across Middle Eastern borders, many of which remain closed.

Much of our tea is also transshipped or smuggled across the borders to the southern states of the former Soviet Union, our other big market. Had the war dragged on or expanded in scope these markets too could have been affected.

Fortunately, none of this happened and the tea industry can look forward to a recovery in demand and prices.

Likewise, our migrant workers are safe and can continue to send back the dollars that help to keep the economy afloat. Despite all the talk about the growth of domestic industry and services the sad fact is that it is our migrant workers in the Middle East, mainly female housemaids, who are our biggest foreign exchange earners.

About a million migrant workers are employed in the Gulf and they sent back about $1.2 billion last year.

Exporters of desiccated coconut are also heavily dependent on demand from the Gulf. They had been suffering even before the war owing to an inability to meet orders because of the shortage of raw material caused by the effect of drought on coconut production. DC millers are now hoping for a recovery in demand and are gearing up to restart the mills that they were forced to close.

The stock market too can breathe more freely. Brokers had warned that a long war could result in the downward revision of corporate earnings, which have seen healthy growth in the last few quarters.

But we are far from being out of the woods yet.

The unexpected crisis may have passed without causing too much economic dislocation but the problems that were affecting the economy remain.

Our debt burden keeps rising while conspicuous consumption continues unabated.

It is certainly commendable that the government has managed to cushion some of the more severe impacts of the external shocks to the economy, as Finance Minister K.N. Choksy has said elsewhere on this page.

But it is also clear that the government is not making enough effort to rein in expenditure and set an example to the rest of the nation.

The Cabinet remains bloated. Ministers and MPs continue gallivanting around the globe at state expense, and to enjoy a subsidised lifestyle while the government slashes the subsidies of the really poor under foreign donor pressure.

Perhaps the government is too embarrassed by its own extravagance to make too vigorous a call on the people to tighten their belts and suffer more hardships until the economy is put back on the rails and we can be assured of solid growth.


Year-end pay hike for public servants
A wage hike is on the cards for public sector workers towards the end of this year - provided international economic conditions remain favourable, according to Finance Minister K.N. Choksy. In this interview with The Sunday Times FT, he speaks about the measures the government has taken to control the cost of living and tackle corruption, the peace dividend and the regulation of financial markets. Excerpts:

In the privatisation of six cluster bus companies, in which control is being given to the British Ibis consortium, President Chandrika Kumaratunga herself has said that the government has violated Cabinet procedures and her spokesman has called it a plunder of national assets. The government is being accused of favouring Ibis and giving them privileges not given to other potential candidates. Could you explain what happened in this transaction?

The privatisation of state-owned institutions is done by the Ministry of Economic Reforms through PERC (Public Enterprises Reform Commission). The recommendation of PERC is placed before the Cabinet of Ministers for a final decision.

The privatisation of the six cluster bus companies has come before the Cabinet for consideration on more than one occasion.

The privatisation transaction commenced as far back as July 2002 with PERC publishing the particulars of the six cluster bus companies, 39 percent of whose shares were being offered to the public. At that stage five or six foreign bidders collected the requisite information from PERC but at the end of three months, when the bids were due to be closed, no bids were received.

Thereafter, PERC re-advertised the offer last September and kept it open till December when the 39 percent was put up for sale on the stock exchange.

The sale of shares openly on the stock exchange is possibly the most transparent method of privatisation. Furthermore, the offer was kept alive on the trading floor for the maximum number of days allowed under the stock exchange rules.

Ibis was the only bidder and therefore PERC recommended the sale to Ibis. Subsequently, negotiations did take place between PERC and Ibis in regard to certain terms of the transaction.

These negotiations were also handled by the Ministry of Economic Reforms in conjunction with PERC. I'm aware that the Attorney General was consulted at certain points by the PERC and then the transaction was placed before the Cabinet.

One issue that has arisen is in regard to the guarantee to be given by the government to enable Ibis to raise the initial capital funds required to refurbish the transport fleet.

This itself was considered in detail by the Cabinet in conjunction with the Attorney General and has not yet been finalised. (According to the request for proposals issued last year by PERC the government guarantee will be subject to a maximum of 30 percent of the value of the equity purchased by the investor who has to make suitable arrangements for mortgaging the assets of the company and the shares purchased by the investor.)

The final agreement has not yet been signed because the outstanding matters, particularly the granting of the government guarantee, are being examined closely by the Prime Minister himself.

The Treasury has not given any guarantee up to-date. In order to ensure transparency and integrity in the award of public tenders the Prime Minister, immediately after assuming office appointed a Cabinet sub-committee on tenders. This sub-committee is chaired by myself as Finance Minister. The other members are Ministers Tilak Marapana and Rukman Senanayake.

Every recommendation of the Cabinet appointed tender board is closely screened by this committee, which makes an independent evaluation and reports to the Cabinet. It is only then that the Cabinet awards the tender. However, privatisation transactions go directly from PERC to the Cabinet for scrutiny.

Due to mismanagement over the past several years the CTB has incurred heavy liabilities to the People's Bank, Bank of Ceylon and the Treasury.

In fact, every month for several years the Treasury has had to subsidise the CTB to the extent of Rs. 70 million a month. Last month alone the Treasury paid out on behalf of the CTB Rs. 120 million.

It is not possible to continue in this fashion any longer and privatisation is both essential and inevitable. However, it does not follow that the Treasury will necessarily grant a guarantee. This will be decided on its merits.

Cabinet ministers have a collective responsibility in the transactions of government. There's a lot of talk that this deal stinks. What is your opinion about this transaction?

I don't agree that the deal stinks. Its terms have not yet been finalised. No Treasury guarantee has yet been given.

The queries raised by President Chandrika Kumaratunga are being examined. The Minister of Transport is due to meet the President on the matters raised by her.

The management has not yet been handed over to Ibis. Every aspect will be considered on its merits before the Treasury makes any commitment in the transaction.

Can you describe the way in which the measures taken to ensure there's no corruption in defence contracts are working in practice?

All defence contracts are examined by a defence procurement committee appointed by the Prime Minister and chaired by the secretary to the Prime Minister.

The committee, after scrutiny, makes its report to the Ministry of Policy Development and Plan Implementation.

There is accordingly complete verification under the control of the Prime Minister himself. Thereafter the tender comes to the Cabinet for a final decision.

Certain procurements made by the police are handled by Cabinet appointed tender boards whose decisions are scrutinised by the committee I chair.

So far there has been no complaint about the award of any such tender.

But recently a local company making body armour alleged that the army has given a contract to an Indian company through the Indian High Commission for 30,000 sets of body armour without calling for tenders.

I'm aware that body armour has been ordered under the Indian line of credit.

Manufacturers of body armour in India had been asked to make bids. These bids were evaluated in collaboration with the Indian High Commission and thereafter the contract was awarded.

The Indian High Commission has recommended the quality of the product of the successful bidder.

The Indian line of credit is made available by the Indian government only to Indian made products. The line of credit is favourable because no up-front payment is made and the payment period is 20 years.

Siemens, the German electronics and electrical engineering company, has written to you alleging irregularities in the $50 million tender awarded by Mobitel to upgrade its network and saying that theirs was the best bid? What can you say about this? Siemens did complain that Sri Lanka Telecom had not acted correctly in the award of a tender. However, there was no Cabinet appointed tender board in as much as SLT is a company registered under the Companies Act and follows its own procurement procedures. However, since the government holds shares in SLT, Siemens has been asked to make their complaint to SLT after which the government representative on SLT will take the matter up at Board level.

The Finance Ministry has no legal authority to interfere in procurements by registered companies but the government representative on such Boards has the responsibility of reporting on such complaints.

Is the government seriously considering a wage hike for the public sector?

The government has adopted several measures, both financial and market measures, to keep down the cost of living despite the increase in oil prices caused by the Gulf war. Commodity prices during this new year period have not increased. However, the increase in costs of state provided services such as electricity has contributed to an increase in the cost of living.

The government is therefore considering an increase of wages in the public sector during the latter part of this year, provided the international economic conditions remain stable. Parallel increases in the private sector will of course have to be discussed with the trade unions. Probably the increase will be announced with the budget in November.

The government made a lot of noise about the peace dividend when it came to power and started peace talks with the Tigers. But the peace dividend is not apparent to ordinary people. They don't feel their living conditions have improved despite the absence of fighting for over a year and the consequent savings on defence spending. Why?

The peace dividend is there in the sense that people can today move about freely without fear of attack and explosions. In monetary terms it may be that savings made in defence spending are not being made available in the form of wage hikes, etc.

This has not been immediately possible because the Treasury has been compelled to advance most of the savings on defence expenditure to bail out institutions such as the CEB, the CPC and the CTB.

Electricity charges today would be very much higher but for the financial assistance given by the Treasury to the CEB.

The increase in oil prices caused by the Gulf war has not been passed onto consumers for diesel and kerosene.

The Treasury has subsidised this up to an extent of Rs. 700 million to-date. In this way there has been a peace dividend given to the people, albeit indirectly.

The insider dealing scandal at the Securities and Exchange Commission has generated a lot of concern among the investing public about the lack of transparency and the conflict of interest among the gentlemen heading these organisations. As Finance Minister it is you who appoint some of these people. What can you say about these concerns? Why can't you appoint people with no conflict of interest?

The SEC has to be an institution which is business oriented. It controls the stock exchange. The stock exchange has done remarkably well because it is manned by people in the trade.

The issue of whether institutions such as the SEC should be manned by businessmen or by bureaucrats has to be dealt with in a balanced form so that the institution can function effectively. In making the choice of the former chairman Mr. Michael Mack I chose a private sector leader who had retired from active business.

There are other professionals such as chartered accountants also on the SEC Board. I therefore endeavoured to maintain a balance of talents in the Board.

When the issue of the transactions of the former chairman arose I insisted that the SEC should act on the opinion of the Attorney General and none else.

Mr. Mack has resigned.

The matter is presently in court. General Denis Perera, who himself is no longer active in the private sector, has been appointed chairman.

There is some concern about foreign aid that has been pledged being channelled through the LTTE?

All foreign aid received is given to the government of Sri Lanka and to no other institution. Disbursements are made under the control of the Treasury.

Aid pledged for north-east reconstruction also comes into the hands of the government.

Its mobilisation in the north-east is being handled jointly by the World Bank and the Peace Secretariat of the government.

Money to be pledged in June will also be channeled in the same manner.


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