Political Column

Political Column

Presidency or peace – Chandrika the Third, or what?
By Our Political Editor
Two terms or three terms? Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's transparent game plan was to return to Parliament as Prime Minister having summarily got rid of the Executive Presidency.

Though she has still not abandoned this hope, it appears even from the viewpoint of the closest advisors that this dream is increasingly an elusive one.

So, they are all scurrying for an alternate plan -- and look what they have come up with. The carbon copy of J. R. Jaywardene's plan to extend his own Presidency was by the simple device of lifting the term limits.

Chandrika Kuamaratunga can extend her tenure as President, or so the theory goes, by lifting the two term Constitutional limit on the Presidency by engineering an Amendment to the Constitution. For this -- or so the theory goes again - - she can get the support of sufficient numbers in Parliament, even two-thirds. The plan is to throw a challenge to the UNF to say "you guys want the Executive Presidency - - so we will retain it, but meet Chandrika Kumaraunga in a two horse race and win.'' This is a challenge the UNF will not be able to resist, it is thought, but beating Chandrika in a two horse race is an impossibility, or so the theory goes……

UNF strongman and National Organizer S. B. Dissanayake always the first to latch on to Presidential plans, told the UNP's re-organization committee last week that it will be a great idea to take up the President on, if she springs that challenge of a three term Presidency now. In his view, her obsession for being the numero uno will lead her to think that she can extend the term limits of the Presidency. For this she will have to change the Constitution. To change the Constitution she will need a two-thirds majority. To obtain a two-thirds majority she will have to go before the people. When she goes before the people this time - she will lose. Or so the theory goes…..

One clear indication from all this three-term talk is that the President clearly sees the problems with the Constituent assembly. It is not the assembly per se that is the problem - - but the fact that there is a clear difficulty in obtaining the numbers for it. But, the three-term option is still being seen as one possible option. The President still believes in her heart of hearts, that she can get away with her pet scheme, the Constituent assembly. Last week therefore, despite overtures made to the Ceylon Workers Congress by Minister Mangala Samaraweera among others, the President pouted in the end. She said the CWC can go fly a kite, if the party cannot agree to getting rid of the Executive Presidency. It is true that CWC strongman Arumugam Thondaman came up with a whole plethora of demands.

He has not been doing any direct negotiations with the President, as has been erroneously reported in some other papers. But yet - it is true that he had that one meeting with the President in Nuwara Eliya when she was on holiday there during the last long vacation. The President insists that this was to discuss business of a strictly routine nature -- the sate of Nuwara Eliya and Mr Thondaman's constituency among other workaday matters.

But, notwithstanding all that - - the President has not been allowed to forget the fact that she does not enjoy a majority in Parliament. The JVP has told her that in their very latest communication with her. In a letter, Tilvin Silva says that if the Alliance cannot show a majority in parliament the future of the administration will itself be unstable. We suppose it needed some brilliant minds to deduce that! However, the President who has several challenges ahead of her, not mentioning those of staving off any possible no confidence motions on her government, has told her Ministers to scatter around and find her a stable majority.

This they have been trying to do, which is how the CWC's Arumugam Thondaman comes into the picture. What has to be remembered of course is that the central thesis around which all the President's policy moves revolve is the fact that she needs to abolish the Executive Presidency in order to get back into parliament. In the past few days this quest had consumed her even more than her quest for a Parliamentary majority. But latterly she has realized that the two quests are in fact one -- to have a Constituent assembly she needs at least half of parliament with her, leave alone two thirds.

This is where that other cool customer comes into the equation. That's Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse. He is fully aware that if the Presidency stays intact --and if the term limits stay - - that he is going to be the next candidate for President.

Rajapakse is now cultivating his national stature, and last week he was seen working almost overtime in Anuradhapura and then in Tangalle, making his presence felt at all of the Poson observances in those areas.

Rajapske is the only man in the UPFA that can play consummate politics - - and he has played all sides including the media so well that he is the only politician of the front ranks of the UPFA who does not have a single allegation of corruption leveled against him. The usual media hounds have devoured other national figures who have more intellectual stature and gravitas. But they have not touched Rajapakse with a bargepole. This then is a measure of the man's capability to balance all the adversarial forces and remain in the race while keeping everybody including the party leader happy.

But the President can hardly have her own agenda (and the problem of Parliamentary majorities etc., are all part of her own agenda because Arumugam Thondaman has made it clear that he does not want to join the UPFA as long as dismantling the Presidency is on top of the Alliance agenda) when the issue of peace is knocking on the door so hard that it's a wonder she gets a nights sleep. Her rationale is that she has appointed other champions to look after the peace process. She figures her task is primarily to keep the government on its tracks, while gentlemen such as Jayantha Dhanapala and Lakshman Kadirgamar handle the external and internal issues that have to deal with the peace process.

Dhanapala being the thorough professional to his fingertips has asked the President's staff to take out honorifics such as Dr from all communiqués and all communications that concern the peace process and also refer to him. Just call me Dhanapala, he has said in his down home manner.

But this is not necessarily going to win the peace, no offense intended to Dhanapala either. The fact that Lakshman Kadirgamar has this time a half a bear hug with Natwar Singh of course, also while being good for the government's image is not going to win the peace either. Journalists were almost breaking the door of various Presidential spokespersons weeks back asking what will come out of the meeting between Erik Solheim and the President. But the President apparently did not have a meeting scheduled with Erik Solheim until the last moment because she had weightier party matters on her mind.

But the issue of the peace refuses to wait - - and this week's killing of Nadesan the Virakesari journalist had brought home the point that the peace in the East is only by name. Theoretically the government can take solace from the fact that the ceasefire agreement is in place - - for the simple reason that the fighting in the East is supposed to be internecine, not between the government and the LTTE, the two signatories to the MoU. But the LTTE does not seem to think so. The LTTE is pushing the envelope. So much so, that while Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar was having talks in India, almost simultaneously an LTTE representative, Mr Maran met the Indian high command including the Foreign Minister. India's best had assured him that the country will not rock the boat with regard to Rajiv Gandhi. The Tigers are emboldened. You could say they are in a bloody aggressive mood.

Uncertainty rules Lankan political scene
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
The UPFA stakeholders finally got their act together as the SLFP and the JVP met on Monday to settle an impending crisis. The dispute arising over the non adherence of the alliance MOU was cautiously settled with both parties realizing the need of the hour of was the creation of a stable government.

Mangala Samaraweera who was out of action for a few months assumed control of most of the alliance affairs as a result of this crisis meeting. Again he volunteered to settle the crisis so that the government could show a majority in parliament. The JVP though may be reluctantly agreed first to settle the dispute without causing ripples that could sink the UPFA boat. The man who wanted to topple the government with plan 18, now introduced Ops 113 to protect it. This is the mission to show a strength of 113 in parliament next week.

The key alliance partners agreed to go for a huge propaganda campaign similar to the one undertaken prior to the recent general election. This strategic decision comes in the wake of allegations that most leaders in the UPFA are not providing adequate leverage to the party as a whole.

Minister Samaraweera along with his comrade at arms Wimal Weerawansa has been appointed joint organizers of this propaganda campaign. The Freedom Alliance will hold weekly press briefings while the key members of the parties will meet weekly to assess the progress of their work.

This comes in the backdrop where most of the SLFP organizers who met at the President’s House complaining of JVP tactics making inroads into the voter base of the SLFP. The organizers meeting chaired by President Kumaratunga started off initially without her presence and this was the time most of the issues on JVP encroachment were discussed.

JVP has a well organized plan for the party's future and it includes capturing power in the form of increased number of councillors in all provincial councils. The red faction thus will become a major force once the election rounds for the provincial councils are over. This factor has been discussed in the party's politburo and since the general election the primary objective of the JVP leadership has been to actively target programmes at party building.

The large members of JVP candidates nominated to fight the PC elections from each district could have led to a split in the Alliance. Last minute negotiations between the SLFP general secretary Maithripala Sirisena and UPFA general secretary Susil Premajayantha enabled the problem to be nipped in the bud. The JVP inner circle, which decided to write to President Kumaratunga, has already decided on a course of action if their demands were to go unheeded especially after the provincial councils election.

Meanwhile Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar's visit to India was quite a significant one in the light of the peace process in the country. His comments very much differed from what he said during his US tour. But what surprises many was a statement by External Affairs Minister, Natwar Singh at a joint media conference with Minister Kadirgamar. He said "As you know, India is committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity and the unity of Sri Lanka in a federal system and the Prime Minister has said that we very much hope that a peaceful, negotiated solution will be found which will maintain the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of Sri Lanka and satisfy all sections of the people of Sri Lanka"

This is an interesting development when looked in the backdrop of the victory of the Congress in the Indian General Election. The JVP certainly would be happy to find the LTTE at the receiving end with the changes taking place in India. But never would they have expected this " appreciably perceived friend" to advocate federalism, which the reds oppose vehemently as a political solution to the country's ethnic problem.

The Indian government though may be wishing to actively participate in the peace process of Sri Lanka has necessarily to be restrained in moving against the Tigers with three major Tamil parties founded in the composition of the new Congress led alliance. Vaiko, an LTTE loyalist, is the leader of one of these Tamil parties with vested interests in Sri Lankan Tamil issues.

The new drama emerging on the local political scene is the unending saga of a Buddhist monk housed in a little corner in Moratuwa in the form of Ven. Kathaluwe Rathanaseeha. From being a humble personality he has risen to be one of the most controversial figures in Sangha politics. After submitting his resignation from parliament and rejoining the JHU from which he broke off earlier now plans to go against it once again.

Ven. Rathanaseeha has gone missing again from his temple and is said to be located in an undisclosed place in Panadura. The monk was escorted to the first sitting of the new parliament by a JVP MP elected from the Panadura district. He is bound to appear in court next week to reveal who from the JHU abducted him. Already names of two monks from Moratuwa are mentioned as being party to the abduction on which occasion he claims he was forced to sign the letter of resignation from parliament.

With all these political developments it is said the government in the event of failure to demonstrate its power in the parliament in the form of 113 seats would resort to other startling tactics that would take the country by surprise. Sri Lankans, one and all, would be kept guessing as to what could happen on June 8th when parliament meets again.

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