Musharraf trapped in cyclic politics

By Ameen Izzadeen

As both India and Pakistan celebrate 60 years of their independence from British rule, both countries are making news for different reasons. Sixty years after Independence, India is an economic success story and an emerging superpower while Pakistan remains a political mess that it has been throughout.

Sixty years ago, Pakistan was created to accommodate the socio-political aspirations of the subcontinent's Muslims, who ruled much of India before Britain colonized the subcontinent. In keeping with Muhammad Iqbal's vision of a Muslim State, within which the subcontinent's Muslims will live by Islamic law, Pakistan seceded from the British Raj - with the Muslim League led by Muhammad Ali Jinnah leading the campaign for a separate state.

Though Islam was cited as the unifying force behind the creation of Islam, differences began to surface on linguistic and socio-economic grounds. East Pakistan, inhabited by Bengali-speaking Muslims, rose up against the domination of West Pakistan. Instead of employing political mechanisms to address the Bengali rebellion, West Pakistan used force to keep East Pakistan under its command. The end result was the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Baluchistan almost followed Bangladesh. But the military succeeded in crushing the rebellion in 1973. Sixty years on, the country's law has still not penetrated parts of the NWFP, which was, like Baluchistan, a reluctant supporter of the Pakistan concept.

Corruption of politicians, myriad socio-economic problems, the threat to country's integrity, four million Afghan refugees, the simmering Kashmir dispute, keeping pace with India's military build up, fighting George Bush's war on terror, and foreign interference are some of Pakistan's headaches that politicians are incapable of handling. Military intervenes when politicians fail. That's why military takeovers often receive popular support. But the very people who welcome the military takeover soon become disenchanted with military rulers and yearn for politicians. Elections are held and politicians return only to make a mess of governance, paving the way for military takeover. The cycle continues.

This is happening again. President Pervez Musharraf, who came to power in a military coup in 1999, is becoming increasingly unpopular. On the plus side, he had won kudos for taking the country on an economic recovery with the country now recording 7-8 percent growth annually. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, a banker himself, is credited with the economic success but the recovery is partly due to the infusion into the economy of US$ 10 billion in US aid over the past ten years.

In the early years of Musharraf rule, the people were happy. Musharraf even won converts from mainstream political parties - the Pakistan Muslim League, the Pakistan People's Party, the Mohajir Qaumi Movement and religious parties. His support for Bush's war on terror - which he was forced to extend in the greater interest of Pakistan's security - saw an erosion of his popularity among Islamists. Ironically, the very Islamists, who opposed Musharraf's decision to join Bush's war, are propping up his government by extending support to the pro-Musharraf party in parliament.

But the decision to join the war on terror accorded Musharraf the international recognition that he lacked to legitimize his hold on power. In 2002 in a controversial referendum, Musharraf got the people's consent to rule for another five years as president. But he refused to relinquish his military post. The same year elections were held to the national and regional assemblies. The Pakistan Muslim League-Q, which supports Musharraf, emerged as the largest single party but fell short of a parliamentary majority. This forced Musharraf to strike a deal with the opposition Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal which represented the Islamist parties. With the backing of the MMA, Musharraf passed an amendment to the constitution, retrospectively legalizing his 1999 coup. Subsequently, he won a vote of confidence in January 2004 in an electoral college vote and "deemed to be elected" to the office of President until October 2007.

But when the end of his term approached, Musharraf who promised to shed his military uniform had second thoughts. To survive in the intrigue-riddled Pakistani politics, Musharraf probably feels that it is necessary for him to be civilian president as well as military ruler at the same time. But this is unconstitutional, his opponents said. They threatened to take the case to the Supreme Court.

It was at this stage that Musharraf made the biggest faux pas of his eight-year political career. In fact, several blunders. He fired Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry on corruption charges, but the move triggered country-wide protests. The Supreme Court last month reinstated Chaudhry. According to a recent poll, some 72 percent of the Pakistanis opposed Musharraf's decision to remove the chief justice.

The Supreme Court in recent judgments has demonstrated its judicial activism and ordered the release of opposition politicians. Certainly, the direction in which the judiciary is progressing is a cause for worry for Musharraf. Then he ordered his troops to storm Islamabad's Red Mosque. Some 100 people were killed. The crisis could have been sorted out amicably but Musharraf had to score brownie points with President Bush. The Red Mosque saga is still not over. It is exploding in Waziristan in the North West Frontier Province, which is home to millions of Afghan refugees. The province is engulfed in a war. Thousands of people have been killed. Among them were hundreds of Pakistani soldiers, who in the past commanded the respect of the people there.

The situation in the NWFP offers Musharraf an ideal opportunity to declare a state of emergency, which he almost did this week. If he had declared emergency, the protests would have been stronger than what the country witnessed during the crisis over the firing of the chief justice. Musharraf has still not lost his game. He could salvage his position. That's why he is trying to strike a deal with Benazir Bhutto. But the exiled ex-premier wants an assurance that Musharraf quits his post as military chief.

As things stand today, Musharraf's needs to go before the electoral college - the national assembly plus the regional assembly - to get him reelected before October. But he is uncertain that he could get enough votes. The last time he faced the electoral college in 2004, Musharraf won 658 out of 1,170 votes — a majority of 146. The terms of the assemblies also come to an end this November. Musharraf faces a gamble: Should he put off the election of President after the assembly elections or before them?