Political Column

Sri Lanka marks six decades of independence tomorrow as the nation faces some of the gravest challenges since freedom from British rule. The most important among them is the ongoing separatist war, now a full-fledged Eelam War IV sans the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002. President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has vowed to "eliminate terrorism" that has ravaged this island republic for over two decades, will no doubt, reiterate his Government's commitment tomorrow. Those closely watching the heavy battles in the Northern theatre of conflict have seen a notable aspect in the past many days. Troops had intensified the thrust on three different fronts - in the general area of Mannar, south of the defended localities at Muhamalai and northwards from Weli Oya.

Early this week, reports claimed that the Army had seized the front line defences south of Muhamalai and at Nagarkovil. That no doubt would have been welcome news and given President Rajapaksa to declare it during his address to the nation tomorrow. However, that was not to be. Troops broke out of their defence lines both at Muhamalai and at Nagerkovil before crack of dawn on Tuesday. They damaged several Tiger guerrilla bunkers. The Army said at least 15 of them were killed but the guerrillas avoided reference to their casualties. The troops then came under heavy artillery and mortar bombardment. They made a tactical withdrawal to the lines from which they broke out.

That encounter came against the backdrop of tighter security precautions. Like the Deep South, particularly areas in the Moneragala District, this time it was the City of Colombo and the immediate suburbs; Police and even Home Guards, enlisted to protect villages, had to be deployed to ensure nothing untoward happened during tomorrow's freedom day. Intelligence reports had begun to worry the Government but they were determined that planned events should not be cancelled or reduced in scale lest there are allegations that they had chickened out. One report spoke of possible air strikes by the guerrillas. Defence officials were heaving a sigh of relief that these threats would soon be less worrisome. The acquisition of a capability to take to air and engage the enemy was now a reality, within days, for the Sri Lanka Air Force. The much talked of Chinese built F-7 interceptor jets have now been procured and will soon be put to use.

Other reports spoke of suicide cadres targeting both vulnerable points and VIPs. After a tip-off that 19 explosive laden suicide jackets were on the verge of entering the City of Colombo, Police managed to find six of them in the village of Palavi, known for its salterns, and located in the Puttalam district. Yesterday, police found two suicide jackets at Mabole, Wattala. A search is now on for the others. Suspected guerrilla cadres, who fell into Police hands somewhat unexpectedly, had confessed to a number of them coming into the City of Colombo. According to one leader, a communications breakdown had led to some disarray but he told Police it was possible they could re-group soon. Interesting enough, instructions for such re-grouping was not coming from Wanni. Instead, they were reaching Colombo on the telephone from cells in Toronto and London.

These new developments warrant a closer focus of the ground realities, looking beyond the veneer of high pitched propaganda that has generated considerable hype and hope. That is to make a realistic appraisal of the things that portend during the 61st year after independence. Such estimation, as correctly as possible, not only educates a discerning public but also makes them alive to the dangers they face and brings to mind the axiom that being forewarned is to be forearmed.

This week's fighting in Mannar, the defence lines at Muhamalai, Nagerkovil and north of Weli Oya belies one fact. In Mannar, the guerrillas have resisted the military thrust to encompass the Madhu Church. This is since July, last year. Close quarter battles have been few. The advancing troops have had to encounter minefields and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). Added to that are artillery and mortar fire. Yet, the troops are confident that they would achieve their objective near the church area within weeks. Then they hope to press on towards the Sea Tiger base at Viduthaltivu. This is where the guerrillas have begun fortifying themselves to prevent ceding an area that is vital for their supplies from Tamil Nadu.

Tuesday's incident on the defended localities at Muhamalai showed that the guerrillas were fiercely resisting any troop advance. Any breakthrough there would be the beginning of problems for the guerrillas. So far, the thrust from north of Weli Oya has posed only the problem of minefields.

But Army sources are more confident now of their thrust in the general area of Mannar than when they began. In a significant move, the Indian Navy and the Coast Guard equipped with radar and other sophisticated monitoring equipment stepped up their presence on their side of the IMBL- the International Maritime Boundary Line in the Palk Straits that divide India and Sri Lanka. They are monitoring Tiger guerrilla communications in the area. Whether defined or not, in a way, the two security arms of India have placed a blockade of sorts on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). On the one hand, the idea is to prevent them from smuggling supplies to the Mannar coast, particularly to Viduthaltivu. On the other, to prevent selected senior cadres, who are battlefield casualties, from being evacuated for medical attention to hideouts in Tamil Nadu.

There is a two-fold significance in this even if Brahmins in the diplomatic dovecotes swear such realities do not exist. In the first one, however indirectly it may be, India is giving Sri Lanka tacit support, or to use a common Sinhala phrase "shide support," in the ongoing Eelam War IV.

Of course one could also add that India's arch rival, Pakistan is also doing so by selling military hardware. The People's Republic of China is the other. Two weeks ago, an Israeli military delegation cancelled its planned visit to Colombo. The Government there had re-considered selling military hardware to Sri Lanka. The Palk Straits "blockage" is supplemented by various other measures. They have helped the Navy with timely intelligence to intercept guerrilla weapons shipments. This scenario assumes greater meaning in the light of remarks by External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, that the ruling Congress-led Government has "zero tolerance" for terrorism. It was such terrorism that killed their leader and one time Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi.

The second one is political. Whilst all other countries expressed concern over the abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement, India made no reference to it. Nevertheless, when President Rajapaksa insisted and won in getting the All-Party Representative Conference (APRC) to recommend the 13th Amendment to the Constitution as a means to resolve the ethnic conflict, New Delhi was happy. India described it as a "welcome first step." The two-pronged Indian approach, a marked shift from a "hands off" policy, thus emerges as a dual purpose tool. On the one hand they will crush terrorism for which one of their prominent leaders paid with his life. More than 20 years after the late Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, revenge is staring in the face of the LTTE. In backing the 13th Amendment, it was a reminder that late Rajiv's dreams are being cherished two decades after he paid with his life for taking that initiative.

Little wonder the recent Indian initiatives have given rise to different signals in different quarters. "When you declared it was the first step, did you mean first step in ten days or in a thousand days. Is this the first step, or the last," asked Opposition and United National Party (UNP) leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe, during talks with M. K. Narayanan, the influential National Security Adviser of the Indian Government this week.

The architect of the CFA, who was invited to New Delhi, spent two days talking to senior officials and politicians of the upbeat Opposition BJP, including former Foreign Minister Yaswant Singh. Sections of the Colombo-based diplomatic community who have been closely following developments on both sides of the Palk Straits are confused.

Some of the Indian initiatives, like the Palk Straits "blockade" or the political support for the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, on the one hand, make clear the Indian stance. However, on the other, some diplomats say the UNP leader's deliberations in New Delhi project a different picture. According to reports from New Delhi, they say, the authorities there were disappointed with the Government's approach. If indeed these reports are true, one thing emerges clear. India is not putting all its eggs in President Rajapaksa's basket. It is also engaging the Opposition in earnest.

For the UNP which has teamed up with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party-M or the Mangala Samaraweera faction that boycotts tomorrow's Independence Day celebrations there are other priority issues. Wickremesinghe has directed that party leaders and branch organizers mark tomorrow with religious observances as they concentrate their activities in and around Kandy, where Independence was lost to the Brits in 1815. The party will launch a campaign beginning tomorrow to formulate a set of comprehensive policy proposals for the National Congress. The exercise is being termed as National Consultation on Policy.

The first step would be meetings at provincial level where respective party members as well as well-wishers will be invited to give their views on four general topics - the future of Executive Presidency, Settlement of the ethnic issue including political proposals, Elimination of waste, corruption, malpractices and outlines for good governance. The event was to have taken place at the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall (BMICH) but permission to use this convention centre has been refused. Leader of the SLFP- M, Mangala Samaraweera, said that the National Congress had been informed that BMICH would not be available for political events in terms of a decision reached by the board of management.

"We have made history at the BMICH. The agreement between the People's Alliance and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was signed at the BMICH," he told The Sunday Times. The National Congress ruled out holding their first national consultation in a five-star hotel for fear of accusations that they chose only places of luxury.

The new moves are meeting some opposition from sections of the UNP. At least one prominent UNPer representing an electorate in the South had told senior party members that they should not be in a hurry but wait till a better situation arrives.

On Friday, Wickremesinghe berated the Government specifically targeting Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa for comments he had made in an interview with our sister newspaper Irida Lankadeepa. He spoke of good governance and asked why President Rajapaksa was not confirming the names of those nominated to the Constitutional Council that would steer the independent Police Commission, Public Service Commission and the Elections Commission in the future.

President Rajapaksa stalling these appointments was making it clear that he had no desire to run the country with people who have no personal loyalty to him. A dangerous trend is there in the making.

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