East: Stability on cliffhanger after election

The government conducted the first provincial elections in two decades on May 10 in the Eastern Province. The ruling colaition of the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) through an electoral alliance with the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) and an "understanding" with the dissidents of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) grabbed 20 of the 37 seats in the Eastern Provincial Council. The TMVP is a breakaway group of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a group that seeks a separate state for the country's minority Tamils in the north and east.

The United National Party (UNP), which contested the elections in alliance with the main Muslim political entity, the SLMC, won 15 seats. The UNP alliance accused the government of rigging the elections and committing gross malpractices, especially in the Ampara and Batticaloa districts. According to UNP spokesperson Lakshman Kirielle, "in Pottuvil, Akkaraipattu and Mutur, government goon squads invaded 40 polling booths and stuffed the ballot boxes to their hearts content while the presiding officers and police simply looked on."

President Mahinda Rajapaksa who won the Presidential elections in 2005 on symbolic agendas of an anti-Tamil and anti-federal platform interpreted his party's election win in the Eastern Province as a people's "mandate" against what his government coined as war against the Tamil terrorism and to drive the Tamil Tigers from the Tamil-dominated north where the LTTE runs a de-facto ethnic state.

Elections are important political events, and political elites conduct these elections for different reasons at different times. However, there is no guarantee whatsoever that elections would bring about peace and stability to the country, or for that matter to any particular ethnic group. Therefore, the key questions are, will the eastern elections help establish stability? Will it generate peace and harmony among the different ethnic groups in the region? Can it pave the way to build genuine power-sharing between different ethnic groups?

The on-going ethnic/civil war requires a political solution. Commitments to a political solution need imagination, willingness and ability as well as guts to challenge the past and seek a new future.

However, the key political actors in Sri Lanka are lacking in such progressive efforts. The ruling Sinhala elites show no genuine interest in searching a political solution in the form of genuine power-sharing arrangements with the minorities, particularly the Tamils who claim they were discriminated against by successive Sinhala-dominated governments in favour of the Sinhalese. Besides, the government, which accommodates Sinhala nationalist agendas and Sinhala extremists, who oppose all forms of extensive and irrevocable power-sharing, is actively engaged in identifying the LTTE as malicious terrorists, while conveniently covering up its own anti-democratic and anti-minority activities. Some of these activities are aggressive and cruel and according to Tamil nationalist opinions, they meet the definition of state terrorism.

Elections alone would not guarantee any stability to war-ravaged Sri Lanka. Stability is a reflection of political willingness to meet the needs and the reasonable demands of the masses. In a democracy, when political elites fail to appreciate the needs of the masses, serious instability is the likely outcome. Sri Lanka, which once aspired to be the Switzerland of Asia, can only gain real peace and progress, if there is sincere political will for a negotiated reconciliation and compromise. Such a political will should engage the Tamil Tigers. One may have deep reservations about engaging the LTTE. But peace between the opposing ethnic actors can be achieved only when today's enemies prepare to engage one another seriously. In short, we need to engage enemies constructively if we are serious about peace.

The major problem in Sri Lanka is the absence of "willingness". Both the Rajapaksa regime and the LTTE are inherently nationalist. They play the ethnic card for political and military gains. This is indeed an unfortunate political trend and could help deepen the conflict. All this would close the door for compromise and reconciliation. Theoretically speaking, this sort of political eventuality is inevitable when political actors systematically employ nationalist agendas in deeply divided societies.

We have some serious problems. But they still can be solved in a human way. This should involve some tremendous efforts by the global community. In other words, there must be more sticks than carrots from highly-interested global actors both on the Tamil Tigers and the Government when they do not comply with peace requests that seek meaningful power-sharing democracy.

The high efficacy of global leverage often works well between countries connected through international aid and trade. The Tamil Tigers, who have been banking on solid support from the Tamil Diaspora, must be warned of further political and military repercussions if they refuse to go along with a negotiated compromise. Equally, the Government needs to be directed to study the Kosovo-style political outcome, if it closes its ears to the call for genuine power-sharing.

It is true that elections are key for any functioning democracy. But they alone would not produce any miracle between the warring and mutually-suspecting ethnic groups. Also, elections often trigger further instability when they are ethnicised and politicised. The just concluded Eastern Province elections can do more harm than good if the Sinhala political elites poititicise the outcome for their benifit. It also can further increase ethnic disharmony between the Tamils and Muslims if there is any agendas for politicisation. Such dangerous political scheming could frustate the already alienated Muslim youths who increasingly respond to the call for a struggle in the name of their religion.

The political stakes are high. They can erode not only the stability of the country, but also its ethnic unity. Therefore, Sri Lanka's ruling elites should seek some rational choices, rather than trying to manipulate the "victory" of the May 10 elections to consolidate their power and to win the next elections.

Any move in this direction could seriously weaken Sri Lanka's commitment to democracy and social progress. Alternatively, the Tamil Tigers need to understand the new political climate of the island. Specially, they should understand the fact that their suicide attacks on innocent civilians further strengthen the hands of extremists and thus weaken the liberal voices for peace. Sri Lanka will continue to bleed if peace has no chance.

(The writer, a political scientist from Sri Lanka, is currently, affiliated as a visiting scholar to the Department of Political Science, Temple University, USA.)