Census 2012 and population scenarios focused at NCAS forum
View(s):Socio-economic implications arising from an ageing population, legal and illegal migration and other demographic shifts were the centre of a panel discussion at the National Centre for Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences (NCAS) in Colombo recently.
The purpose of the forum was to initiate a dialogue on the preliminary population estimates recently released by the Department of Census and Statistics, based on its Census 2012, which was conducted after a lapse of 30 years. The discussion was conducted by a panel of leading demographers representing the Department of Census and Statistics, universities and research organizations. The discussion provided insights into several critical issues pertaining to demographic transition in the country.
Dr. R.M.K. Ratnayake, Director of NCAS, in his opening remarks, emphasized the need to closely look at the population estimates derived from the Census 2012, which was conducted after a long lapse of three decades.
H.R. Gunasekera, Additional Director General, Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), highlighted the salient features of the recently concluded Census of Housing and Population 2011. Sri Lanka, which began her census series in 1871, has the longest history of census in South Asia. He emphasized that the Census 2011 is the first census conducted after a span of 30 years in which a complete enumeration was done in the entire country including North and East. With a well organized staff, the DCS conducted the Census 2011 in three stages: mapping, listing of buildings and census enumeration. Mr. Gunasekera pointed out that the DCS took several steps forward to improve the enumeration procedure, data capture, master-register of census block, data dissemination and definition of urban areas. Computer technology was intensively used this time for coding, editing, imputations and data dissemination. The ‘E-census’ method was used in a few metropolitan areas where cooperation of respondents is minimal.
Prof. Indralal de Silva, Senior Professor of Demography at the University of Colombo, addressed the question of why the recent population census counts differ significantly from the projected and estimated figures. The population growth rate is only 0.71 per cent during 2001-2012, compared with the growth rate of 1.0 per cent during 1981-2002. According to the current Census, the country’s total population stands at 20.3 million in 2012. This figure is lower by around 0.4 – 1.0 million than the independent projections compiled by three demographers previously. Census under-enumeration, irregular emigration (eg. boat people, refugees) and under-registration of deaths are perhaps some of the key factors that contributed to a possible under-count. Prof. De Silva highlighted the implications of the demographic trends for per capita income and poverty levels.
Raja Korale, former Director of Census and Statistics, in his presentation stressed that the population redistribution as well as external migration have had implications for the reported patterns derived from the recent Census, which was the first census conducted in the post-conflict era. He noted that there was a considerable shift of population in the North and East to other parts of the country and to the rest of the world. Taking into account the errors that could commonly occur with regard to the coverage and content, Mr Korale stressed the need to disseminate the estimates of coverage errors and evaluation methods of the counts along with the census data. He cautioned that the conduct of population censuses will be extremely difficult in the future owing to emerging patterns of public sector administration and devolution of powers.
Dr. A.T.P. Abeykoon, Senior Fellow, Institute of Health Policy, made a lucid presentation on the theme of future demographic scenarios based on the population count of 2012. He observed that under-enumeration of censuses is common to both developed and developing countries. Post-enumeration is used to minimize such errors in several countries. In Sri Lanka, however, post-enumeration results are used only for internal purposes, and they are not released to the public. Dr. Abeykoon noted that the extent of under-enumeration is estimated to be only 2.8 percent, and therefore, the Census count of 2012 can be accepted. Slower population growth would facilitate economic growth. The ‘demographic bonus’, which is likely to extend up to 2030 needs to be wisely utilized for economic development with further investments in human capital.
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