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A talk by Dr Arvind Gupta, Director General of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, New Delhi, held at the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute for International Relations and Strategic Studies on Thursday marked an interesting development in the trajectory of local research activity in international relations. It was the first time such an event was organized jointly by the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS) and the LKIIRSS.

Introducing the speaker, Sunimal Fernando, Advisor to the President and member of the BCIS’s Board of Studies indicated that the two think tanks planned to work together and ‘provide complementarities’ to each other in the future. Both institutions were concerned with the study of international relations in the context of Sri Lanka’s national interest. His observation that Indo-Lanka relations were ‘structurally imbued with tensions’ which it was imperative to resolve, perhaps had relevance to other issues discussed by Dr Gupta in his talk on “Trends in Indian Foreign Policy.”

The foreign policy stance articulated by Gupta has been spelled out by previous visiting Indian diplomats as well. The gist of their message is that India seeks cooperation rather than competition, engagement rather than confrontation, and that the prosperity of its neighbours is in the interests of India’s own prosperity. Even as he spoke however, the ripples resulting from a statement made by India’s navy chief Admiral D.K. Joshi regarding readiness to deploy ships in the South China Sea – where India has interests in oil exploration – were being felt across the wider Indo Pacific region.

Joshi reportedly made the remarks at a press briefing in Delhi on Monday, days after China announced laws that allowed police in its island province of Hainan to board and search vessels which it considered to be ‘illegally’ entering the South China Sea. China asserts sovereignty over most of the South China Sea and its islands, but these claims are contested by Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia. The area’s rich resources in oil, gas and fish, as well as its shipping lanes, have made it a flashpoint in the region in recent times.

Last year India signed a pact with Vietnam for oil exploration in the disputed waters. “Where our country’s interests are involved, we will protect them and we will intervene,” NDTV reported Joshi as saying.
Referring to a subsidiary of India’s oil exploration company Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), the Indian Express quoted Joshi as saying: “…. when the requirement is there, for example in situations where our country’s interests are involved, for example ONGC Videsh etc, we will be required to go there and we are prepared for that. Are we preparing for it? Are we holding exercises of that nature? The short answer is yes.”

China’s announcement of the new laws came after a dispute between Chinese fishing boats and a Vietnamese ship in an area where both countries have overlapping claims. The two countries have different versions of the same incident. Vietnam accuses Chinese fishermen of cutting a seismic cable that was being towed behind a Vietnamese survey vessel, while China maintains that Vietnam chased away its fishermen engaged in legitimate fishing activity, the reports say.

More recently, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei, referring to Joshi’s remarks said that China “hopes relevant countries respect China’s sovereignty and national interests,” the Hindu reported. However India’s National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon on a visit to Beijing had downplayed Joshi’s comments, saying the issue did not figure in his talks with the Chinese leadership, the Hindu report added.
Needless to say, this kind of verbal sparring between the two rising powers is not reassuring for smaller states in the region that can nowhere match the military might of the nuclear armed Asian giants. Any Indian assertiveness in the South China Sea would also need to be seen in the context of the US’s ‘pivot to Asia’ that will see 60 percent of US naval assets deployed in the Asia-Pacific by 2020 – a shift of focus widely seen by analysts as a move to counter the rise of China.

The thrust of these developments, if interpreted by China as provocations, could further undermine stability in the region, increasing the risk of war.

Responding to a question after the talk on the Indian navy chief’s remarks, Gupta said there was a need to see the issue in the context of the security of sea lanes, and that “confrontation was not the only way.”
In his talk he said India’s foreign policy had ‘changed beyond recognition’ since the end of the cold war, adapting to the new realities as it prepared to play a part in shaping the new world order. The US’s relative decline and the rise of new powers like China were among those changing realities. Opening up of the economy in 1991 and going nuclear in 1998 were developments that had far reaching consequences. With globalisation India was increasingly integrating with the outside world. But globalization also made India more vulnerable to external shocks. India was considering strategic partnerships that were unthinkable 10 years ago based on national interest, not ideology, he said.

Gupta also referred to the increasing importance of the maritime dimension of India’s foreign policy. The ‘rediscovery of the maritime dimension’ outlined by him needs to be considered against the backdrop of complex ground realities.

Noting that India could not afford to ignore the Indian Ocean, he referred to the Indian navy’s work in combating terrorism, in responding with assistance following the Indian Ocean tsunami, and in helping contain the LTTE’s activities at sea. While India sought to project its role as non-threatening and as a ‘net security provider’ in the region, he said the question was ‘would this be acceptable?’ The attempt to answer that question perhaps brings us back to Sunimal Fernando’s comments at the beginning of the event, on the inescapable tensions that beset India’s relationships with its neighbours.

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