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The attainment of self-sufficiency in food is an important government policy objective. In fact achieving food self-sufficiency has been a central concern in Sri Lanka since the early decades of the 20th century.
Self-sufficiency in food is considered essential to ensure food security in the country. An underlying reason for this is that Sri Lanka has been a food deficit export-import economy since the 19th century. Being an island it is feared that food supplies from abroad could be undermined by international developments.

Food security

Food security is not synonymous with self-sufficiency and the attainment of food security does not require the realisation of self-sufficiency. Food security is achieved by a country when it has adequate food supplies, either by domestic production or imports. Household food security is achieved when households have the capacity to access adequate quantities of food for their nutritional needs.

It is not necessary for a country to produce all its food needs to be food secure. In fact food security may be better served by diversification of the economy to improve the economic capacity to access international markets rather than by producing all food needs domestically. For instance, Japan and Britain that are food secure are not self-sufficient in food.

Food security is a problem of underdevelopment. The attainment of food security is not dependent solely on the amount of food produced in the country or on agricultural and food policy alone, but on good overall economic management and social policies. The distribution of incomes and social policies have a significant role in ensuring food security of a large proportion of the country’s population that may not have the capacity to access adequate quantities of food at market prices owing to inadequate incomes.

Rapid economic growth, a diversified economy, a rational and productive agriculture, a good distribution of incomes and interventionist policies to assist people left behind in the process of economic growth, are needed to ensure food security. Increased agricultural production by improving incomes of rural households could enhance household food security as a large proportion of the country’s population is dependent on agricultural incomes, directly or indirectly.

Prospect of self-sufficiency

Today’s column is confined to the more restricted issue of discussing the prospects of achieving self-sufficiency in food. It is to assess the realistic possibilities of domestic production to meet future demand of some of the main foods. Sri Lanka would have to be dependent on imports of several food commodities. However, wherever it is possible to increase domestic production efficiently, especially through improvements in productivity, this should be attempted as there are gains in household food security through such increased production.

The projections of consumption and production of the main food items indicate that there are realistic possibilities of achieving self-sufficiency in a few commodities, while the country would have to be dependent on the import of other food items such as wheat flour, sugar, and milk.

Self-sufficiency in rice

Self-sufficiency has already been achieved in rice in a good year. Production has to increase to feed an additional 200,000 people every year at a higher per capita level. Since there are land and water constraints to increasing the extent of paddy cultivation, the attainment of self-sufficiency in rice in the next decade would require an increase in yields from current levels of about 4.35 to about 5 metric tons per hectare. This is an attainable level, as it is less than half the potential yield level of 10.5 metric tons that are achieved in several parts of the main paddy producing areas.

Sugar

Only about 15 per cent of the country’s sugar is produced locally. The country will continue to be highly dependent on sugar imports as the trends in sugar production have been unsatisfactory, whereas concurrently per capita consumption is increasing. If the present declining trend in sugar production continues, the county will have to import a higher proportion of its sugar requirement. There are fundamental structural and organisation issues in sugar cultivation that have to be resolved to increase sugar production.

Milk

Current trends in milk production lend hope of local milk production achieving about 50 per cent of consumption requirements around 2030. Although official estimates indicate that the country produces about 35 per cent of current milk requirements, this may be an overestimate. Much higher investment in the industry spurred by higher prices is needed to achieve this target.

Coconut 

Coconut is an important item of food and is an export commodity. The country’s export surplus of coconut would be reduced in the immediate future unless there are significant gains in production. If demand for coconut grows sharply, the country will not be able to export coconut and coconut products by 2030.
The extent of land available for new cultivation of coconut is limited, except for possibilities in the Eastern and Northern provinces. An increase in coconut production would have to be achieved by replanting with higher yielding varieties in existing coconut areas, higher levels of fertilisation. The encouragement of coconut cultivation in home gardens would have a direct benefit on improving household food security.

Fish

The projections in fish production indicate that there is a possibility of self-sufficiency by 2030 now that the entire coastal area is conflict free. Since fish production does not have to contend with natural resource constrains, especially as the country has right to a 200 mile ocean radius, the expansion and modernisation of the fishing fleet and improvement in fishing infrastructure could achieve self-sufficiency in fish that is important in the Sri Lankan diet. Since fishing is undertaken by poor people, increased production and productivity in fishing could enhance food security for one of the poorest sections of the population.

Wheat

Since wheat is entirely imported, the projections in demand indicate that wheat flour imports are likely to increase from the current  levels of around 536,000 tons to about 641,000 tons by 2030 which is a 20 per cent increase in imports in the next 20 years. The amazing increase in maize production could provide a means of substitution of maize for wheat.

Other food items

Production statistics of other food items such as vegetables and fruits are not adequately dependable for projections. Currently there is a high level of self-sufficiency in these. It is therefore fairly reasonable to think that production could expand to cope with increased demand.

Implications

Self-sufficiency could be achieved in only some areas of food. The country would have to continue to import substantial amounts of several food items. Unless this reality is accepted, economic policy could be misdirected. Food security in Sri Lanka has to be realised by both an increase in domestic production and increased imports.

The problem of food security is due to the underdevelopment of the economy and not confined to the performance of the agricultural sector alone. The attainment of food security requires good overall economic management and reduction of poverty. Social interventions are needed to help people left behind by the development process. They do not have the capacity to access adequate quantities of food at market prices owing to their inadequate incomes. While increased food production is vital, it alone will not resolve the problem of food security.

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