6 % GDP growth in 2013 will see Sri Lanka’s oil import bill at US$ 6.7 bln : Analysts
View(s):If GDP grows at 6 per cent this year, Sri Lanka’s oil import bill may reach US$ 6.7 billion analysts say.
“Of this bill, $1.3 billion is for electricity,” a Capital Alliance Securities report has said. In 2012, over 30 per cent of Sri Lanka’s import bill was for petroleum products, but about 20 per cent of Sri Lanka petroleum imports go towards power generation, according to this report. As a result of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the overall cost of oil imports in 2012 rose to this 30 per cent of the total import bill, it added.
“As real GDP grows, the amount of fuel needed by the private sector will increase,” it said.
“Even when hydro comprised about 53 per cent of power generated in 2010 (highest rainfall in past 10 years) savings from petroleum imports for power generation amounted to just about $146 million.” It said that hydro power has limited potential to further improve the energy balance unless record rainfall occurs.
“Record rainfall in 2010 resulted in a nearly 53 per cent hydro contribution. Rainfall may have to increase by 45 per cent from the 10-year average of 3500 mm for a 60 per cent hydro contribution,” the report said.
Sri Lanka can still benefit from new, cheaper energy sources, it said, noting that at nearly 36 per cent contribution from coal, total cost/ Kilowatt ( KWh) still falls short of the current selling price/KWh of Rs13.6 (a figure obtained in 2011). Energy losses in generation, transmission and distribution have averaged a high 18 per cent since 2006, it added.
The power generation sector in the stock market saw its profits coming down by 7 per cent in the stock market while excluding non-recurring items profits grew by 4 per cent.
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