Sunday Times 2
Deadly Middle East virus unlikely to cause SARS-like epidemic
View(s):LONDON (Reuters) – Despite its high current death rate, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) that emerged in Saudi Arabia last year is unlikely to cause a SARS-like epidemic because it is not spreading as easily, scientists said on Friday.
In the fullest clinical analysis yet of the new virus, British and Saudi researchers said that while there are many similarities between MERS and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) – which emerged in China in 2002 and killed around 800 people worldwide – there are also important differences.
The MERS coronavirus, which can cause coughing, fever and pneumonia, emerged last year and has spread from the Gulf to France, Germany, Italy, Tunisia and Britain. The World Health Organization (WHO) puts the latest global toll at 45 deaths from 90 laboratory-confirmed cases.
The WHO issued its travel guidance on Thursday for pilgrims going to the annual haj in Saudi Arabia and said the health risk posed by the MERS virus was “very low”. Ali Zumla, a professor of infectious diseases and international health at University College London, said the evidence from his study suggested a large MERS epidemic with many hundreds of deaths was unlikely.
“It is very unlikely any epidemic will ensue. The public needs to be reassured,” he told Reuters. “MERS is unlikely to spread as rapidly, and therefore also unlikely to kill as many people (as SARS).” He noted that MERS was first identified 15 months ago and there have been 90 cases reported so far. SARS, spread far more rapidly, infecting more than 8,000 people between November 2002 and July 2003.
The vast majority of MERS cases have been in Saudi Arabia or linked to people who contracted the virus there.A study by French researchers last month said MERS had not reached pandemic potential and may just die out.
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