Sunday Times 2

I wish to draw your kind attention to the article by Mangala Samaraweera in the Sunday Times of October 6, 2013 and would like to respond to it. Samaraweera bases his arguments mainly on the following grounds, as summarized below;

Yes, Ranil Can: Why I support him.

1.The successor to the incumbent President must have the experience and vision to boldly challenge the catastrophic direction the country is heading today.

2.He must be a person who has the courage of his convictions to abolish the Executive Presidential system, a leader who can establish meritocracy in place of the nepotism we have today. A leader who is not tainted by corruption and a proven record in economic and administrative management, a non-communal leader who can give leadership to a multi-ethnic, multi-religious identity and who can rally international community behind our country. In effect, the next leader should be effective, efficient and an invisible leader like Lee Kuan Yew (the man and not the system). The only leader who fits the bill in Samaraweera’s opinion is Ranil Wickremesinghe.

3.He reckons that while the party leader must be held accountable for the string of defeats, the party electoral organisers are equally, if not more accountable for electoral failures in their respective seats.

4.Wickremesinghe scored the most number of votes in recent times in the 2005 presidential election and was short of a mere 126,000 votes from outright victory and only 23,000 votes short on a second count. Just as Ranasinghe Premadasa won the 1989 elections thanks to a JVP boycott in the south, Mahinda Rajapaksa grabbed victory in 2005, thanks to an LTTE-enforced boycott in the North.

5.Wickremesinghe has continuously scored the highest preferential votes in Colombo district and in the last Municipal Council elections in Colombo, Wickremesinghe, together with Ravi Karunanayake spearheaded the CMC elections to resoundingly defeat the government campaign carried out with all its might. However, in many of the electorates led by party dissidents, the UNP vote base fell below 25% and most notably, Tissamaharama where the UNP managed to muster only

Ranil Wickremesinghe

20%.

6.A united party with well-oiled election machinery, which can deliver the UNP block vote to the ballot is a “sine qua non” for victory. To do so, we need to energise the party rank and file at the grassroots levels and energetically implement the reorganisation programme of the UNP leader.

7.Wickremesinghe has the most astute media sense and is one of the most astute campaign coordinators Samaraweera has met, since working with Chandrika Kumaratunge in 1989.

8.The next presidential candidate must also be able to win the trust and confidence of the Tamil and Muslim communities who are increasingly being marginalised by the present regime. He believes Wickremesinghe will be much more acceptable to the minority communities, than many of the other Presidential aspirants both from within and outside the party.

9.The silver lining of the results in recent Provincial Council elections is that it shows that the Govt. is not strong as it would like the people to believe, in that the combined opposition parties polled an average of 41% of the votes cast, which shows that the margins are bridgeable in a Presidential/General election.

10.The leader that most of the opposition parties will be most comfortable with as a presidential candidate is Wickremesinghe.

No, Ranil cannot. Why I do not support him

1.Wickremesinghe is not necessarily the only person who has the experience and vision to challenge the catastrophic directions that the country is headed today. If all mature democracies in the world are to think that there is only one person who would have the vision to lead a party, then, there will be many a party in the world, where there will be eternal leaders of the opposition, despite successive electoral defeats. This is a negative connotation and is the perception of only interested individuals. The numerous electoral defeats are a testimony to this fact.

2.The present incumbent of the presidency, despite all the negatives that are being mentioned against him, is able to win elections convincingly and continuously, because of his ability to give leadership to rally people together and keep them together, which Wickremesinghe has failed to achieve. Leadership is about bringing people together, keeping them together and inspiring them to motivate themselves. As for corruption and administrative capabilities, the UNP cannot divest itself of these shortcomings, as per its past performances and the large amounts of unaccounted funds from campaign monies under the Wickremesinghe leadership.

3.The party electoral leaders cannot be held equally or more accountable than the party leader for electoral defeats, due to the mere fact that it is the leader who should have the ability to inspire the electoral leaders to motivate themselves. Wickremesinghe lacks this inspirational capability and there is voter apathy now within the UNP rank and file. There needs to be a new leadership to do so, just as Chandrika Kumaratunga did in 1994, where Sirima Bandaranaike, despite her sterling qualities could not do at that time. It was a new face that launched the thousand ships in 1994.

4.The situation in 2005, during the war period, is much different to the post-war period. Times have changed.Wickremesinghe’s ceasefire agreement was proven to be a disaster and the elections thereafter, from the time the war effort began in earnest in 2006, brought in a string of victories for the UPFA.

5.Wickremesinghe continuously has scored the highest number of votes amongst UNP voters because of the strong UNP Colombo vote base. Give him Gampaha or Hambantota and he may even score less than a mediocre UPFA member. Despite the strong Colombo UNP vote base, Wickremesinghe polled less than Wimal Weerawansa at the last Parliamentary elections. CMC victory was also because of the traditional UNP vote base. Not because of Wickremesinghe. If he aspires to be a national leader, he must prove himself to have a national level vote base. The best test would be if he were to lead the electorates of the UNP dissidents or in Tissamaharama.

6. To bring a united front, we need a leader who can unite people. The record of Wickremesinghe, with party loyalists leaving in droves, is not the logical leadership that is required in the present today.

7. Media attacks on Wickremesinghe’s leadership style and his string of campaign defeats do not support Samaraweera’s argument that Wickremesinghe has the most astute media sense or the most campaign coordination capabilities. This may be his perception or that of only a handful of Wickremesinghe yes-men, who will not stand a chance in hell to win popular votes. They are merely a bunch of appointed Working Committee members, kept on by Wickremesinghe to consolidate power within the party. It is good to remind Samaraweera of a quote from Sigmund Freud. “To know yourself is the ultimate form of aggression”.

8. The dismal performance of the UNP in the recently concluded Northern Provincial elections where Wickremesinghe was actively campaigning, goes to show that he does not have the trust and confidence of the Tamil or Muslim minorities.

9. Polling of a 59% to 41% gap is no silver lining for a combined opposition, totally disunited as of present, to bridge. It will take a new lease of life to be organised much before the next elections. Time is the most essential. “Time is a merciful friend, but, is also, a merciless enemy.”

10.The fact that many party loyalists are not coming together shows that there is voter apathy and loss of confidence and, therefore, to awaken the large dormant voter base, which is larger than that of the combined opposition of the JVP, the DP etc.., the party needs a new face and a new lease of life.

If Wickremesinghe is the gentleman he is purported to be, or the astute politician with a vision he is supposed to be, it is high time that after nearly 20 years at the helm since 1994 and over 20 defeats at elections and with a continuing diminution of the voter base, he should realise that a new beginning is imperative. The following may therefore be proposed in the immediate, to prepare for the elections to come;

1.Appoint a senior, experienced and a mature statesman like politician, who is acceptable to the general membership of the party (not just the Working Committee appointed by Wickremesinghe) to take on the interim leadership of the party, with a mandate to rally all the people who have left the party or who are dormant, to come together and work together, with the elections in mind.

2.Appoint a Council of Seniors in the party, as suggested by the Bikkhu Front to guide the work needed to rejuvenate the party and with Wickremesinghe playing an important role in the council.

3.By doing this, a new leader acceptable to all can emerge in time. This will also leave room for Wickremesinghe to emerge again, if the membership feels that the others have failed to rally the party around and the opposition would feel that Wickremesinghe is the best person to lead the combined team at the time of elections. This proposition is worth giving serious thought to, because business as usual, will not get the UNP anywhere. If Wickremesinghe continues as he is, there will be more voter apathy building up. Defeats in the next three provincial councils will be the end of the road for Wickremesinghe. But, he could live to fight another day, if he becomes more realistic and pragmatic in a timely manner.

The sooner those in the UNP hierarchy and the Working Committee realise these and do something for the greater common good of the people in Sri Lanka, the better it is.