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As March draws nearer, public anxiety grows over an impending showdown in Geneva where it is expected the US will succeed in having a third anti-Sri Lanka resolution adopted with far more serious implications than the previous two in 2012 and 2013. Meanwhile government spokesmen continue to project a cheerful picture, publicising the diplomatic and propaganda initiatives taken to meet this challenge. The sense of false optimism and defiance in the face of external threat may invigorate campaigning for the upcoming provincial council elections, but is unlikely to help in the long run.

There are at least three myths afloat in government circles that feed into a dangerous complacency. One is the idea that ‘China (and Russia) will save us’ at the upcoming UN Human Rights Council session. External Affairs Minister G L Peiris returned from a visit to Beijing with assurances of China’s support in international forums. “China opposes other countries’ interference in the internal affairs of Sri Lanka under the pretext of human rights issues,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Peiris. The excellent bilateral relationship with China is not in question. But China has only one vote in a council of 47 members, and how many others can China persuade to vote in favour of Sri Lanka at the HRC? Political analysts have not hesitated to point out that China cannot and will not come to Sri Lanka’s aid in any showdown that involves India or other military powers. The same goes for Russia.

Another misconception periodically fuelled by statement and innuendo from the government benches is the idea that ‘India is the enemy.’ This feeds on unhappy memories from history, manifesting in ways that, at best, could strain the relationship momentarily and at worst, risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Much has changed since the days of the IPKF and after the murder of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE. India sees stability in its backyard as being in its own interests – Sri Lanka’s war could not have been won without its neighbour’s support.

Wishful thinking
Analysts with a somewhat more global perspective than that which prevails within the foreign policy decision making circuit have long decried the folly of demonising India. A harmonious relationship with India is pivotal to an enlightened foreign policy. The Indian central government has consistently signalled that it supports an honourable resolution of the Tamils issue that respects the country’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. The most recent version of this message was conveyed this week in New Delhi through interactions between Indian External Affairs officials and a group of visiting Sri Lankan journalists.
At the same time External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid has been forthright about domestic pressures in an election year. “We are in an election mood. In election time it is not always easy to explain to people. There is no time and no willingness to listen to things…,” he is reported to have said. Pressed on the subject of India’s stance on the anticipated resolution at the UNHRC, he urged that “Lanka should do things that will enable India to help it.”

Khurshid’s tone here seems to echo that of a longtime friend of Sri Lanka, Yasushi Akashi, Japan’s Special Envoy when he visited in December. With regard to things not done, Akashi conveyed a hint of impatience, and with regard to things that have been done, he indicated there was a need to communicate better with the world. Japan’s stance probably represents the most sympathetic that may be expected from a responsible UN member state.

Another example of wishful thinking known to prevail in government circles is that a BJP victory in the upcoming Indian Lok Sabha polls would bring an end to Sri Lanka’s troubles. The BJP’s formal announcement three weeks ago of a tie-up with the MDMK led by the pro-Eelam, pro-LTTE Vaiko, should have put paid to this one. The ‘Times of India’ reported Vaiko having ‘expressed confidence’ that a government led by the BJP’s Narendra Modi will ‘help Eelam Tamils realise their dream.’ Vaiko was among those who lobbied hardest for an Indian boycott of the Commonwealth summit in Colombo last year. He has repeatedly been arrested in Chennai for making inflammatory pro-LTTE speeches.

We are in a crisis
At least one new development that gives hope that better counsel may reach the president in matters relating to foreign policy, was an internal consultation with experts convened on Thursday by National Languages and Social Integration Minister Vasudeva Nanayakkara at his ministry. Presentations were made to the group by former UN ambassadors Dayan Jayatilleka and Tamara Kunanayakam, and academic/activist Kumar Rupesinghe. Apart from Nanayakkara parliamentarians present at the closed door session, the ‘Sunday Times’ learns, were Ministers Rajitha Senaratna, Reginold Cooray, Douglas Devananda, Navin Dissanayake and MP Wasantha Senanayake. Also present were the Executive Director, Consortium of Humanitarian Agencies Jeevan Thiagarajah and Ravaya Editor Victor Ivan.

Matters discussed related to issues arising from the UNHRC session in March, the possible contents of a resolution, the charges likely to be brought against the country, how to respond to them and possible remedial measures. The group was agreed that this was a crisis. A Centre-Left foreign policy was discussed. Dr. Jayatilleka advised on certain steps that should be taken. Kunanayakam briefed the group on US policy and how R2P (Responsibility to Protect) can be applied to Sri Lanka. These moves were part of US efforts to design a new international architecture where multilateralism will be replaced with unilateralism. She said it was not necessary to go to the UN Security Council for permission to apply sanctions because the universal dimension of R2P could be used by individual countries to do so. Without India there would be no international support for Sri Lanka Kunanayakam said. The problem was not technical but political, and therefore the solution also had to be political.

A synopsis of the discussion is to be given to President Rajapaksa.