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CICA, SAARC and a ‘Modified’ India
View(s):As the dust settles after India’s stunning election, the aggressive campaign rhetoric of the triumphant BJP’s prime minister-elect Narendra Modi has been replaced with a distinctly softer tone, one of inclusiveness in respect of India’s diverse population, and of reaching out to neighbours in the region. Modi’s unprecedented invitation to SAARC leaders to attend his oath taking ceremony tomorrow has been warmly received by members of the regional grouping. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s initial hesitation to accept may be on account of resistance from his army generals. His office yesterday announced that he would attend the ceremony. His attendance would no doubt give the finishing touch to the anticipated picture-perfect ceremonial event.
A doubt that arises in the minds of many is, of course, whether this is just ‘feel good’ stuff arising from the euphoria following victory. On Friday, days before Modi could even take his oath, gunmen armed with heavy weapons attacked the Indian consulate in the Afghan city of Herat. Maintaining harmonious relationships with neighbours has not been easy for India’s leaders, and Modi will find his situation no different. It would seem premature at this stage to attempt to predict the trajectory of the new government’s neighbourhood policy.
BJP and foreign policy
Protests over the invitation to Sri Lanka’s President Mahinda Rajapaksa by Tamil Nadu’s political parties, including the NDA-allied MDMK led by Vaiko, have been countered by the BJP, whose party’s spokesperson Nirmala Sitharaman asserted the invitation was to ‘celebrate democracy,’ and should be seen in that context. “Inviting the Sri Lankan President does not mean we will compromise on the rights of Tamils,” said Pon Radhakrishnan, BJP’s state president in Tamil Nadu, according to the Hindu.
While the guessing continues as to who will get the key External Affairs portfolio, BJP leaders appearing on TV have expressed the view that foreign policy does not arbitrarily change with a change of government. They point out that foreign policy will have continuity in that it reflects India’s national interest. This is consistent with the view expressed on the Tamil issue by the BJP delegation that visited Sri Lanka last year. The leader of the delegation, then Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Ravi Shankar Prasad told Indian journalists that “India-Sri Lankan relations have a bipartisan consensus in India.”
However, the BJP’s tough-talking former ambassador to the UN in New York Hardeep Singh Puri, on a NDTV panel discussion indicated that the BJP would be different from Congress. On the subject of the Mumbai bombings and threats from Muslim extremists he said that former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had been weak, emphatically asserting that with the BJP “there will be a response.”
Puri who joined the BJP after his retirement, and is among those tipped for the foreign ministry’s top spot, supported previous US-led resolutions against Sri Lanka at the UN Human Rights Council. “Notwithstanding assurances to India, the “Brothers” running Sri Lanka appear to have no intention to move on political reconciliation and devolution” he wrote, in an opinion piece in the Hindu. “This “majoritarianism” in total disregard of respecting and protecting the rights of minorities is a narrow and calibrated political strategy designed to safeguard Sinhalese parliamentary strength. …. India did the right thing by supporting the resolution on war crimes.” He said that the only safeguard for Tamils in Sri Lanka was delivery of the promised devolution based on the 13th amendment.
CICA’s new security framework
Few in Sri Lanka had heard about the Conference on Interaction and Confidence building in Asia (CICA) till President Rajapaksa attended its fourth summit a few days ago in Shanghai. CICA was launched on an initiative that came from Kazakhastan and its first summit held in 2002. Sri Lanka got observer status last year. The association’s stated objective of ‘promoting peace, security and stability in Asia’ may seem ambitious at this point, simply looking at the long list of member states, some of whom are not exactly the best of friends. Alongside each other as permanent members for instance are Israel, Iran and Palestine. So are India and Pakistan, while China’s ongoing maritime quarrels with Vietnam dominated the news even as the summit was underway on 20-21 May.
According to reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call for a “new security concept” for the region has caused some concern in the West. CICA is seen as an attempt to counterbalance US initiatives such as, for example, the trade pact called the Trans Pacific Partnership that pointedly excludes China.
“Many Chinese analysts see China’s efforts to establish alternative multilateral groups as a logical and restrained response to Washington’s economic and military “pivot” to Asia, which Beijing has angrily condemned as an attempt to contain the country’s rise,” said ft.com, an internationally known business news organisation.
Coinciding with CICA was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China. The navies of the two communist giants held joint drills in the East China Sea during this time. While in Shanghai Putin also signed a $400 billion deal to supply natural gas to China, giving Russian trade a much needed boost at a time when the US and the EU have imposed sanctions over the crisis in Ukraine.
Though India and China are generally seen as rivals in the Asian theatre, it’s of interest that India’s delegate expressed support for development of new security architecture in the Asia Pacific through CICA. He advocated a pragmatic step by step approach as a way to “strengthen faith in the ability of Asian countries to work together to resolve Asia’s problems.” The comments may be a pointer to the significance of Modi’s gesture of inviting SAARC leaders to his swearing in ceremony.
While the developments of the past week in India and China may be said to have caused some tremors in the region, the question as to whether they signal a tectonic shift in the global balance of power as well, is likely to preoccupy analysts in the years ahead.