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Will Uva reflect people’s growing frustration with mainstream politics?
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The Uva provincial council election set to take place next month is the last of the nine provincial elections the UPFA coalition holds in its second term. There is much interest in relation to this election, the final one before presidential and general elections expected early next year. It’s being regarded by analysts almost as a dry run to test which way the wind will blow at the national polls.
Uva, comprising the agricultural and plantation districts of Moneragala and Badulla, is one of the poorest, least developed regions of the country. Population-wise the province is mostly Sinhala-Buddhist. Moneragala is among the worst-hit districts in the ongoing drought. Though the Government has sought to downplay the issue, a quarter of the people are suffering from severe food insecurity according to a World Food Programme report. Farmers are heavily in debt and unable to prepare for the Yala cultivation season owing to lack of water. Against this backdrop of adversity, how will voters respond to the flurry of lavishly funded campaign activity they suddenly witness to solicit their vote?
UNP and SLFP lose ground
Provincial council elections were held in succession in 2012 (North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Eastern provinces), 2013 (Central, North Western, Northern) and 2014 (Western, Southern). A few trends may be discerned from a review of the past results. One is that the popularity of the mainstream national parties (the UNP and the SLFP-led UPFA) has dropped, when a comparison is made with their performance in previous provincial elections.
With the exception of the Northern Province, the UPFA won all the PC elections upto now, but with ‘diminishing returns’ latterly. The UNP not only lost all these elections but also suffered losses in its vote share, compared to its performance in previous elections in those provinces.
In 2012, the UNP’s vote share dropped by 5.8% in the Sabaragamuwa Province and by 2.1% in the North Central Province, compared to elections in 2008. In 2013, its vote share dropped by 10.8% in the Central Province and by 3.86% in the North Western Province, compared to 2009. In March this year its share was diminished by 2.99% in the Western Province, although it increased marginally by 0.68% in the Southern Province, probably owing to Sajith Premadasa’s efforts against all odds in the Hambantota district. The UNP average in provincial elections hovers around 26%.
The UPFA’s fortunes in 2012 showed an increase of 5.8% in Sabaragamuwa (the exact percentage by which the UNP’s share dropped in that election). The same year its vote share increased by 4.86% in the NCP. But in 2013 the ruling coalition’s share in the CP election increased only marginally by 0.66%, and in the NWP it recorded a loss of 3%. In March 2014 the slide continued with bigger losses — 11% in the WP and 10% in the Southern Province, compared with 2009. The UPFA’s average in provincial elections is around 50%.
Growing disillusionment
It appears that the vote percentages lost by the UPFA in 2013 and 2014 were picked up not by the main opposition UNP as might be expected, but by Sarath Fonseka’s Democratic Party (DP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The DP got 4.34% and the JVP 1.85% of the votes in the NWP in 2013. This roughly adds up to the combined losses of the UPFA and the UNP in that election. Similarly in March 2014 the DP got 7.97% and the JVP got 6.11% votes in the WP council election, which again adds up to the percentage loss of the UPFA and UNP.
While the North and East would need to be analysed separately owing to demographics, it would be fair to surmise that voters in other provinces are increasingly getting disillusioned with the mainstream national parties, the UNP and the SLFP, and are willing to look at fresh options.
The DP comes out as a strong contender considering that it emerged from ‘nowhere’ (without the benefit of organisation networks and resources at the disposal of the older, bigger parties) and yet secured two seats in the CP council and three in the NWP council. It bettered its performance in March this year when it took nine seats in the WP and three in the Southern Province. This meant that it came in third in the NWP and WP council elections, after the UPFA and UNP.
The JVP under its dynamic new leader also looks set to make notable gains in the upcoming Uva election. It currently holds two seats in Uva. The JVP came in third at the NCP and Southern provincial council elections.
Communal politics rejected
Though neither the DP nor the JVP can win a provincial council election at this point, both could make a dent in the UPFA’s vote bank such that the Government will no longer be able to take victory for granted at a general election, once the North and East voting is also factored in. At a presidential election on the other hand the fortunes of a ‘common candidate,’ or any other, will depend largely on that personality’s ability to match the unabated popularity of Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Another trend that may be observed based on provincial election results outside of the North and East, arguably, is that voters don’t have an appetite for communal politics, although politicians persist in forming parties along communal lines. In the provincial council elections of 2013 in the NWP, NP and CP, it was clear that Muslims voted for ‘non-Muslim’ parties (i.e. parties other than the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress). The numbers tell the story in Puttalam, Mannar and Kandy districts where they are concentrated. Similarly in the CP council election, in Nuwara Eliya district where Indian Tamils account for over half the population (53%), the Up Country Peoples Front got only 7.17% of the vote. This tendency was seen in SL Tamil voting in Colombo district too, during the WP council election.
It’s worth asking why politicians show a preference for communal political formations, if people have rejected communal politics. With increasing disillusionment with mainstream political parties, up-and-coming parties like the JVP and DP would have much room to grow if they include all ethnicities in a truly national agenda, and convince people that they can deliver cleaner, better governance.