Sunday Times 2
Warsi resignation: Lessons for Lanka
Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, the first-ever Muslim woman cabinet minister, made media headlines when she resigned the other day accusing Britain’s coalition government of a “morally indefensible” policy on the Israeli killings in Gaza.
She was the first cabinet minister to resign in 11 years, the earlier resignations being those of Foreign Secretary Robin Cook and International Development Minister Claire Short also over Britain’s Middle East policy.
Why should this resignation of Baroness Warsi, a Senior Minister of State in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, matter to us in Sri Lanka? After all, is it not an internal, domestic matter and of little relevance to us, some might well ask.
Baroness Warsi: Britain’s Gaza policy is neither consistent with “our values, specifically our commitment to the rule of law and our long history of support for International Justice”
To dismiss Warsi’s quitting as purely a domestic issue or, at best, one that is relevant to the Middle East and of no significance for Sri Lanka would be myopic because it misses the point.
The crucial factor here is the importance of the minority ethnic and religious vote which can tilt the electoral outcome of a substantial number of marginal seats in the British electoral map.
With a general election due in May next year the marginal seats are going to be critical in deciding which party comes out on top, especially so in a political situation that is fluid and uncertain as it is today.
Recent opinion polls show that the opposition Labour Party is just a few points ahead of the Conservatives — and Cameron’s coalition partner the Liberal Democrats in a sorry state even below Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party which is opposed to large-scale immigration from Europe and sees Britain as an appendage of the European Union with limited sovereignty.
If the Warsi resignation was triggered by the Government’s failure to denounce the Israeli attacks on Gaza in which several hundreds of civilians including children have been killed or wounded, it has already found resonance among the Muslim minority in Britain.
That would surely damage the Conservative Party’s ability to garner even the 12 per cent of the Muslim voters who backed the party at the last election.
This is becoming increasingly evident. Though Warsi’s departure was on a matter of principle, she is also a Muslim, the daughter of Pakistani immigrants and her own ethnic background would have made it virtually impossible for her to continue in her position without being subject to strictures by her own community.
Statements coming out of Downing Street since the Gaza incidents deteriorated into disproportionate Israeli responses that resulted in UN compounds housing civilians also coming under attack, have shocked not only Baroness Warsi and caused serious misgivings in the Foreign Office but even within the Conservative Party itself.
In a recent statement Downing Street “expressed condolences for the deaths of Israeli troops” but only “concern” about the “mounting casualties” in Gaza.
One cannot overestimate the angry reaction of UK’s Muslim community reflected in some of the statements made by prominent members who have also complained bitterly that Muslims have been subject to more than normal scrutiny and harassment by security authorities.
If as Baroness Warsi implies in her letter of resignation to Cameron and in interviews she has since given, this lopsided Middle East policy which Cameron claims is even-handed, is bound to affect Conservative electoral prospects come next May.
There are 60-80 marginal seats especially in urban areas with minority ethnic populations. If much, if not the entire Muslim vote, can be written off as far as the Conservatives are concerned, they will have to look elsewhere for ethnic minority votes.
It is here that the Tamil minority, more so the Sri Lankan Tamil community, though relatively small in number compared to the Muslims, will play an enhanced role.
Admittedly the Tamil vote will not be as decisive as the Muslim vote, especially in the northern part of the country. But there are urban pockets, such as Harrow and East Ham for instance, where the Tamil vote could tilt the balance. It is that vote that has returned Tamil councillors, deputy mayors and mayors to several borough councils in and around London.
If the Conservatives are desperate to seek ethnic minority votes, as they would surely need to in order to pip Labour at the polls, then they would indeed woo the Tamil vote even more assiduously than they have been doing since the 2010 election when they realised the value of minority voters.
Just as in Canada where Stephen Harper’s governing party played up to the Tamil minority for votes and to enhance its presence in the Canadian parliament, the Cameron Government has been bending over backwards to accommodate the Tamil diaspora and its diverse organisations vying for influence and power among those in the governing circles.
It is publicly known, partly because the Tamil organisations themselves have publicised their ‘success’ in websites and press releases, that Foreign Office ministers and officials have had regular meetings with Sri Lankan Tamil groups to press their case against the Mahinda Rajapaksa Government.
It is these groups, of which their are several here, who have fed information to British officials and the media on alleged war crimes and other offences supposedly committed during the last stages of the war.
What has emerged in recent years is a symbiotic relationship between some British politicians and officials on the one hand and Tamil diaspora organisations on the other.
What needs to be keenly watched in the coming months is the form and shape of this growing nexus. If the Conservatives have to rely on the ethnic minority vote in some marginal seats and the Muslim vote is going to be lost as a result of Conservative policy then where will the Tories turn to keep its electoral prospects alive?
One group they will seek help from is the Tamil diaspora. But there will be a price to pay. The Tamil community will inevitably demand its pound of flesh in terms of a much tougher stance by the British Government against Sri Lanka at every international forum and in bilateral relations.
The British government has already played a lead role in the UN Human Rights Council on the US-sponsored resolution last March. But in the current circumstances there will be even more pressure by the Tamil lobby on Cameron to try and make a case against Sri Lanka to the International Criminal Court (if that is possible), press for sanctions and even a travel ban on government politicians and senior officials.
This toughened stance against Sri Lanka will probably be reflected during next month’s annual party conferences and the fringe events where anti-Sri Lankan groups will have the opportunity to make their play.
While this drama is being played out on the British political stage, Sri Lanka can also make use of the Warsi resignation to prove the point that Sri Lanka is the victim of double standards as President Rajapaksa and others consistently argued.
In her letter of resignation Baroness Warsi wrote: “Particularly as Minister with responsibility for the United Nations, the International Criminal Court and Human Rights, I believe our approach in relation to the current conflict is neither consistent with our values, specifically our commitment to the rule of law and our long history of support for International Justice.”
In an interview with the Sunday Times, London, she was much more specific and trenchant. “We go around the world talking about our values and human rights and we will be accused of being hypocritical if we are seen to be applying them selectively. That has impact on us both domestically and internationally,” she said.
Here is evidence presented on a platter which, if Sri Lanka is wise enough, it can exploit against its detractor. It will be a hard case to dismiss for the criticism comes from one who was in a position to know.
Time will tell whether we are alert enough to make use of this opportunity to show the world that while Sri Lanka is accused of lack of accountability, the same stringent standards are not demanded of others.
Moreover, it would be a mistake to put too much weight on the opinion among some that the Conservatives would be back in power, especially now that the deck is stacked against them.
(The writer was Sri Lanka’s Deputy High Commissioner in London until last week)