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Xi’s Asian tour – the arithmetic, chemistry and geography
View(s):On the last leg of his Asian tour in India, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked that “When China and India speak with one voice, the whole world will take notice.” The Chinese leader was asserting the importance of the bilateral relationship not only for the region but for the world.
This sense of the historic importance of their role in shaping the ‘Asian Century’ as it is called, is shared by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who, in an interaction with Chinese media in Delhi ahead of Xi’s visit noted that 300 years ago India and China contributed over half the world’s GDP, and that whenever they have worked and grown together, this has also led to the economic prosperity of the world. “The arithmetic and chemistry of our relations convinced me that together we can script history and create a better tomorrow for all of mankind” he said.
However, the inescapability of another subject — geography — in the regional equation became only too evident as a standoff between troops was being played out on their long-disputed border, even as the two leaders met at Hyderabad House. Scores of Tibetans, who want freedom from Chinese rule, protested outside. The reported Chinese troop incursions into Ladakh are said to have featured prominently in the talks. Modi expressed ‘serious concern over repeated incidents along the border’ and asked the Chinese leader to resume clarification of the LAC (Line of Actual Control). Border frictions came to the fore earlier this month too, when External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj remarked that India could not endorse One China policy unless China supported One India policy.
The more important lesson from the episode is perhaps is the determination expressed by both leaders, after talks, to address the issue through consultations and not allow it to undermine the growing bilateral ties. In their remarks to the press after the talks Modi had noted that ‘peace and tranquility’ on the border were essential for realising the full potential of their relationship. Xi asserted confidence that both sides could manage the situation through border related mechanisms. It would seem that the two Asian giants seek a dynamic partnership even as they compete.
Asian connectivity
Asian connectivity would appear to be very much the theme of Xi’s trip. He started his tour in Tajikistan where he attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit before travelling to the Maldives, Sri Lanka and India. In Tajikistan he attended the inauguration of a section of the China-Central Asia gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to China. In all the countries he visited Xi spoke of the ’21st Century Silk Road.’ The Silk Road refers to ancient trade routes that connected China with East, South and Central Asia, Africa and the Mediterranean, over land and sea. Further underlining the importance of connectivity, Xi won Modi’s support for a proposed Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar Economic Corridor.
Securing energy supplies from Central and West Asia and ensuring access to the shipping lanes through which they are transported assumes vital importance to China at a time when its economy is growing rapidly and going through major reforms. Some analysts have suggested that the Silk Road concept is China’s way of countering the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement in the Asia Pacific region which excludes China.
Sri Lanka an all-weather friend
It may be noted that there was far less ceremonial fanfare in India than in Sri Lanka over the Xi visit. Media were almost nonchalant, and the Times of India pointed out that China’s pledge of $20 billion investment over five years was far less than the $35 billion, for a similar period, offered by Japan during Modi’s visit there.
Of course unlike India, Sri Lanka has no disputes with China. Rather, Sri Lanka is considered an ‘all weather friend’ as Xi described it. In an article he published in the state run Daily News Xi said that China “firmly supports efforts of Sri Lanka to safeguard its national independence, state sovereignty and territorial integrity and resolutely opposes any move to interfere in Sri Lanka’s internal affairs under any excuse.”
China’s investment in the Colombo Port City project alone amounts to $1.4 billion — a figure that exceeds India’s total development assistance of $1.3 billion. But while India’s assistance targets specific post-war reconstruction needs, the Port City would appear to be mainly a flashy piece of tourism infrastructure, the need for which remains debatable. The clause which reportedly gives China ownership of one third of the land reclaimed from the sea for this elaborate project is again controversial.
Competing interests
Sri Lanka signed 27 agreements and MoUs with China in various sectors, where maritime projects figured prominently. Under a plan to ‘Deepen the Strategic Cooperative Partnership,’ it announced the establishment of a Joint Committee that would explore areas of maritime cooperation including “ocean observation, ecosystem protection, marine and coastal zone management, search for wreckage of Zheng He’s fleets off the Coast of Sri Lanka, maritime security, combating piracy, search and rescue, and navigation security.”
Asked if there would be strategic implications (of such cooperation) for the Indian Ocean Region, political scientist Dayan Jayatilleka said, “There could surely be such a perception — and even a threat perception — on the part of India, be it warranted or not.”
It would seem that ‘little’ Sri Lanka stands to gain much from the emerging Asia-centric world order, under the protective umbrella of the two Asian giants. But to reap such benefit it would have to play its cards wisely, mindful of competing interests in the region. Sri Lanka would need to iron out the wrinkles in its relations with India, and resolving the national question would go a long way in this respect. The growing synergies between the two Asian powers, and the strong will expressed by their two leaders to overcome obstacles to their partnership, should signal to Sri Lanka the diminishing value of the ‘China card’ in the context of the complex changes taking place in the world.