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Major parties prepare for presidential poll, January date likely
Despite a turbo charged campaign with lethal weapons from its political armoury, the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) faced a humiliating outcome at the Uva Provincial Council elections. It won with a lower majority and faces higher concerns.Lawlessness reigned in the run-up to the September 20 polls. Intimidation and thuggery were rampant. The Police were blind to new Defender Jeeps sans number plates clogging the outback of Badulla and Moneragala Districts. Unidentified but well-built men were canvassing in different ways for the ruling party candidates. Various forms of inducements were offered.
A VIP distributed envelopes with money amounting to between Rs 2,500 and Rs 5,000. Opposition party supporters feared to walk into a Police Station. In one instance on polls day, the Mayor of Bandarawela was assaulted inside the Police Station by three Government politicians. The Officer-in-Charge of this headquarters station was transferred for failing to prevent the incident. However, no action so far seems to have been taken on the assailants. Polls laws were violated with impunity. The Polls and Police Chiefs were buck-passing complaints from those who sought a free and fair poll.
All these and much more did not obscure the single most important message voters in Uva delivered — that they were now disenchanted with the UPFA. Though victorious, the UPFA’s votes dwindled to worrisome proportions. That was with a voter turnout of 76 per cent, a phenomenon usually experienced not even at a national election. That message extends even further. Cash, goodies, lower electricity and fuel tariffs have all failed to retain the UPFA’s vote base, leave alone garner more. Fears of a repetition of the scenario at the upcoming presidential election next year have pushed the UPFA into high gear. On Thursday, a Presidential Elections Operations Room was set up at R.G. Senanayake Mawatha (former Gregory’s Road) in Colombo at the auspicious hour of 10.01 a.m. Unlike in Uva where the area is limited, the UPFA’s enormous campaign resources at a presidential poll would have to be distributed widely to encompass all provinces. Whether goodies and goodwill alone will change hearts and minds would be a challenge for the UPFA.
The move came as speculation mounted in UPFA circles that a proclamation would be issued on November 20 for the presidential election possibly on January 9 next year. If that is confirmed, the date could see the cancellation of the three-day visit to Colombo by Pope Francis on January 13. Yet, arrangements for the visit, including tighter security measures to prevent possible incidents by radical international Islamic groups, are now being formulated. Officially the Pope’s visit is on. External Affairs Ministry sources say Rajapaksa has scheduled a visit to the Vatican for a meeting with Pope Francis in the first week of October though the exact reasons are not known.
Since the military defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the UPFA has won elections to provincial councils with comfortable margins, except the Northern Provincial Council (NPC). The staggered elections were held to emaciate the opposition and demoralise it thoroughly before a Presidential poll. Such victories exuded euphoria and UPFA leaders declared they were a continued voter endorsement for the defeat of terrorism. It was also interpreted as public approval against the US-backed resolutions at the United Naitons Human Rights Council over alleged human rights violations and war crimes. Has the gloss rubbed off against people’s mounting hardships? If that is the main cause, there were a multitude of other reasons too. An Insight report by the Sunday Times elsewhere in this newspaper provides the details.
Compared to the PC polls in Uva in 2009, the votes for the UPFA in nine electorates in the Badulla District and three in Moneragala District showed a reduction of 21.5 per cent. The UPFA polled 72.39 per cent in 2009, but it dropped to 51.24 per cent. In numerical terms, the UPFA polled 349,906 as against 418,906 at the 2009 PC polls. Of course, the earlier poll (2009) is not a realistic yardstick since it came immediately after the military defeat of Tiger guerrillas, a development that placed the UPFA at a distinct advantage. However, the UPFA decline is reflected by other factors. At the presidential polls in 2010, President Mahinda Rajapaksa secured 61.12 per cent in the Uva Province. At the 2010 parliamentary elections, the UPFA won 66.9 per cent of the votes in the same province.
Even ahead of the poll, the UPFA leaders were aware they were facing an uphill task, as revealed in these columns last week. A state intelligence arm had forecast a 48 per cent vote for the UPFA in the Badulla District and 58 per cent in the Moneragala District. That was almost a bulls-eye prediction. This was why efforts were made at the eleventh hour to heighten canvassing. The result was marginal victories in some electorates — Bandarawala (by 280 votes) and Uva-Paranagama (by 197 votes). Ministers Nimal Siripala de Silva (Badulla) and Dilan Perera (Hali Ela) lost in their respective electorates.
The fact that Rajapaksa, who kept his hands on the political pulse in Uva, had the stamina to go from place to place during the campaign is a major contributory factor to victory. Yet, to say that the poor performance hurt his image is no exaggeration. He campaigned personally for his nephew Shashindra Rajapaksa, the son of Speaker Chamal. At the previous PC polls Shashindra had created history. He received 85.52 per cent or 136,697 preferential votes in 2009. This was the highest percentage at that time. However, this time he had polled only 96,619 votes. He lost 29 per cent of the preferential votes this time, a sign that his popularity has been badly dented.
Only 17 UPFA members were returned to the Uva PC as against 23 (25 with the bonus seats) in the previous polls. With the two bonus seats, the UPFA number went up to 19. In contrast, the main opposition United National Party (UNP) gained six seats more bringing its total to 13. The two remaining seats in the 34 member UPC went to the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
It is thus clear that the voters who were disenchanted with the UPFA have turned largely to the UNP, the main opposition party in the fray. A clear distinction in this cannot be ignored and that is the message which the UNP would have to read carefully. The vote it has polled is not the result of a proactive programme of action placed before the voters by the party. It is rather the voter dislike towards the UPFA for a number of hardships including — soaring living costs, unbridled corruption and apathy towards people’s needs — among them.
This is by no means to take away some positive factors. One is the role played by the young and energetic Harin Fernando, who was elected with a record number of 173,993 preferential votes. The other is, to a lesser degree, the message reaching the grassroots level of the party that national leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and then Deputy Leader designate Sajith Premadasa have patched up their differences.
UPFA's new campaign office at R.G.Senanayake Mawatha, Colombo 7 . Pic by M.D. Nissanka
They stood on an election platform holding hands at the party’s crowded 63rd anniversary rally in Passara. News spread that ‘unity’ has returned to the party. Yet, the UNP lost the Passara electorate, a traditional stronghold, by a majority of 6,762 votes. A leading UPFA dignitary was directing the campaign in that electorate through a retired Army Major General and a large team. They were under orders not to return to Colombo until the polls ended. Yet another factor is the fact that votes of those newly registered, besides that of some of the UPFA, came to the UNP. However, the party still riven by internecine rivalries has a long way to go. Last Tuesday’s Working Committee meeting and resultant developments clearly highlight this factor. More on that subject later.
The UNP polled 40.24 per cent or 274,773 votes while in 2009 it received 129,144 or a mere 22.32 per cent. This is a marked increase of 17.92 per cent or 145,629 more votes than the previous polls. Six of its former MPs – Upali Samaraweera, Ravindra Samaraweera, Harin Fernando, Samantha Vidyaratne, Hema Ratnayake and R.M. Ratnayake – were elected UPC members.
Another plus factor for the UNP came in the Moneragala District, where the rural heartland is predominantly Sinhala Buddhist. The decline of votes for the UPFA is quite significant. The decline was from 81 per cent in 2009 to 58 per cent in 2014. The UNP’s gain of more than 31 per cent (from 15.5 per cent in 2009) underscores a clear signal. The party that was branded as pro-west and reliant on minority groups for its support base has won the hearts and minds of the rural Sinhala population no matter whether it is by design or otherwise. Even in the multi-ethnic Badulla District, with the presence of a sizeable population of Tamils of Indian origin, the UPFA was able to muster only 47 per cent.
The JVP, as predicted last week, also increased its vote base which rose to 5.35 per cent or 36,580 votes. In 2009 the JVP had won only 2.53 per cent or 14,639 votes. Both for the JVP and the UNP, there was also a marked increase in postal votes, a shift in the loyalties of those who worked for the state sector. The Democratic Party led by former General Sarath Fonseka polled only a paltry 6,076 votes (or 0.89 per cent). Not surprisingly, both he and his party face a bleak political future. Minister Wimal Weerawansa’s National Freedom Front (NFF) received even less, 4,835 votes (or 0.70 per cent). However, his party contested only the Badulla District. It was also a blow for the Democratic Unity Alliance (DUA) which recorded 5,045 votes (or 0.73 per cent). The DUA was made up of two UPFA partners – the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the All Ceylon Makkal (People’s) Congress.
With the UPFA’s dismal performance, the fortunes for the main opposition UNP have increased. In the eyes of the voter, the party appears rejuvenated. Can the party therefore harness the growing public support and displeasure towards the ruling party to offer a serious challenge to Mahinda Rajapaksa, the presidential candidate of the UPFA? Has the UNP got its act together and does it have a plan of action? The simple answer is “no, not yet.” It is against this backdrop that the party’s main policy making body, the Working Committee met at Siri Kotha in Pita Kotte, the UNP headquarters, last Tuesday evening.
Ahead of this meeting, Last Sunday afternoon, UNP national leader Ranil Wickremesinghe met a delegation from the Eksath Bhikku Peramuna (EBP or the United Bhikku Front). It was led by Venerable Girambe Ananda Thera, the EBP president who together with other senior members in the organisation saw to the setting up of the UNP Leadership Council in October last year. The Ven. Thera is the Anunayake of the Ramanya Chapter.
As revealed in these columns last week, EBP members met at the Nalandaramaya Temple in Nugegoda to discuss moves to name Sajith Premadasa as Deputy Leader. The report said that they decided to make three different appeals – 1. Urge Premadasa to attend meetings of the Leadership Council. 2. To decide on more than one Deputy Leader. 3. Create an office of Deputy National Leader. The report added that Wickremesinghe telephoned Ven. Malabe Seelarathana Thera, who took part in the meeting, and asked him to use his good offices to persuade parliamentarian Ravi Karunanayake to accept the post of Assistant Leader. At that point, Karunanayake was reluctant.
The EBP members, during a 90-minute meeting with Wickremesinghe, placed their demands and a heated debate ensued. Others present were Tissa Attanayake, Karu Jayasuriya, Ravi Karunanayake, Wijayadasa Rajapaksha and Malik Samarawickrema, a former Chairman of the UNP and a close confidant of Wickremesinghe. Though invited Premadasa was absent. National Organiser Daya Gamage, who arrived for a different errand, also took part. Venerable Ananda charged that Tiran Alles (a National List MP of the Democratic National Alliance -DNA-) was in tow with a UPFA dignitary to ensure Sajith Premadasa was made Deputy Leader. He alleged that large amounts of money had changed hands. Wickremesinghe was to quickly assert that there was no such thing and that the delegation had got it completely wrong. Daya Gamage declared, “We cannot work on other people’s agendas.” Added Wijayadasa Rajapaksha, “The General Secretary of the party should not be a kapuwa (marriage broker). He must work for the best interests of the party.”
As the meeting ended, Ven. Ananda Thera went public. He told BBC’s Sinhala programme Sandesaya, to which Sri Lankans world over listen, last Monday that the Government was behind moves to ensconce Premadasa. Excerpts: “The Eksath Bhikku Peramuna has accused UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake of conspiring ………. with heads of private media organisations and MP Tiran Alles to destroy the future progress of the UNP.
“Chairman of the Eksath Bhikku Peramuna Ven Girambe Ananda Thera told the BBC (Sandeshaya) that the General Secretary resigned from the Leadership Council after he made this allegation at a meeting attended by the Party leader, the General Secretary and others. He said that Mr Wickremesinghe had denied the allegation at the meeting.
“Therefore there was no reason to resign. If he said there was no truth in it, we will accept it. However I feel that if he is resigning over this, there is some truth in it. The Anunayaka Thera said that the Government has a keen interest in getting Sajith Premadasa appointed as the Deputy Leader and Tiran Alles and heads of some media organisations are assisting. Mr Attanayake too has supported this move.
“The Anunayaka Thera said that though he had no objections regarding the appointment of Mr. Premadasa as the Deputy Leader, he was not active in party work for some time. We have no objections. It is he who is not coming. He said that he was opposed to the proposal by Mr. Premadasa to scrap the Leadership Council. It is because of the Leadership Council that the party has got new life. Mr. Attanayake denying the allegations by the monk said that he resigned from the Leadership Council as his attempts to get Ranil, Sajith and Karu on the same stage was criticised……”
The opposition building up ahead of the Working Committee meeting prompted UNP national leader Wickremesinghe to take a number of measures. Having failed to win over the EBP, the influential body of Buddhist clergymen who backed the UNP, he did not want things to go wrong further. One was to win over Ravi Karunanayake, a strong critic of Premadasa becoming number two in the party. Wickremesinghe approached a head of state.
It was the Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen, who had come to Colombo to attend the 8th General Assembly of the International Conference of Asian Political Parties. As the opening sessions at the Nelum Pokuna Arts Theatre ended, Yameen beckoned to his personal friend Karunanayake to join him to travel to his hotel. Some heard the former UNP Trade Minister tell President Yameen he would follow since it was not protocol for him to proceed together in his official vehicle. The duo met at the Presidential Suite at Cinnamon Grand Hotel for more than 90 minutes. Yameen broke the news to Karunanayake.
Wickremesinghe had appealed to him to persuade the parliamentarian to accept the post of Assistant Leader. This was with an assurance that he would be considered for an even better position in the near future. Karunanayake was adamant. However, he gave in after a lengthy conversation with Karu Jayasuriya, Chairman of the Leadership Council. The latter had declared he would be better off as “Assistant Leader than just Ravi Karunanayake MP.” Wickremesinghe also spoke with other MPs and Working Committee members who were bitter critics of General Secretary Attanayake for the manner in which he sought Premadasa’s re-entry.
So much so, the mood in the Working Committee was tame as its meeting began half an hour behind the scheduled time of 4 p.m. last Tuesday. Premadasa was to arrive a further half an hour late. Wickremesinghe who chaired the meeting announced that he proposed to nominate several persons for new positions. He wanted to know whether there were any objections. If there were none, it would be construed as a unanimous decision. No one raised objections.
The names were carried unanimously. The only exception was the name of Harin Fernando to head the youth council of the party. Ruwan Wijewardene had offered to resign the same morning at a hurriedly arranged press conference. He took up the position that Fernando had sacrificed a lot for the sake of the party by resigning his parliamentary seat and winning chunks of votes at the just concluded Uva elections. However, Fernando said, “Wijewardene is an eligible bachelor. I have family matters to attend to. Moreover, he has been doing a good job. He should continue.” Main among the new appointments was the naming of Premadasa as Deputy Leader.
Wickremesinge flaunted a copy of last week’s the Sunday Times and commented on the references made to his telephone call to Ven. Sumangala Thera in the political commentary. Information from inside was leaking to the media, he noted and added that it should be stopped. “It is not good for such things to go to the newspapers,” he said. By then, he was perhaps unaware that the approaches he had made to the Maldivian President to woo Karunanayake were also public knowledge.
With the new appointments over, members took time off to cut a cake to mark the record number of preference votes Harin Fernando had received. Karu Jayasuriya, who spoke thereafter, said he had that Tuesday morning met Wickremesinghe. He revealed that he had offered to ‘sacrifice his post as Chairman of the Leadership Council’ if it served the better interests of the party. “My mother’s house is only 200 yards from King Siri Sangabo’s,” he said much to the amusement of those present.
This King of Anuradhapura in the third century cut his head and handed it to a poor man. Wickremesinghe had then told him that the Leadership Council would remain and there would be no change of heads. Newly elected Uva Provincial Councillor Ravi Samaraweera had some words of advice to Premadasa. He appealed that he take it in the correct spirit. Since he was now Deputy Leader, he should avoid getting regular stomach aches (Badey Amaruwa) that makes him absent himself from political rallies. That was the reason given by Premadasa for not taking part in some election meetings in Uva. In the future he should make sure he attends them. Harin Fernando was to complain over the resignation from the Leadership Council by Attanayake. He said it took the shine off the party’s achievements at Uva.
Attanayake was to drop a bombshell during his speech. Whilst taking pride in the fact he was able to ‘unite’ Ranil Wickremesinghe, Karu Jayasuriya and Sajith Premadasa on the same platform in Passara, he said, there were others who were strongly critical of him. He revealed that during consultations with his leader Wickremesinghe for the return of Premadasa as Deputy, he had met both Tiran Alles and Raja Mahendran. Eyebrows were raised when the self-confession came. All that while he had told party leaders and the Sangha that he did not deal with “anyone outside.” He said the purpose of his meetings was to ensure that the media organisations owned by them did not criticise the national leader or the UNP. Did Attanayake brief Wickremesinghe about his meetings? During Wickremesinghe’s meeting with the Eksath Bhikku Peramuna last Sunday, Attanayake denied any link with ‘those outside.’ He also denied it when asked by the Sunday Times at one of his press conferences. Here are the relevant excerpts from last week’s political commentary.
“The Sunday Times asked Tissa Attanayake, General Secretary of the UNP, about reports that Alles, who is from another political party, discussed with him the appointment of Premadasa as Deputy Leader of the UNP. The question was posed when he addressed a news conference at Siri Kotha, the UNP headquarters on Thursday. It was summoned to say that the Government could have further lowered electricity and fuel prices.
“Attanayake replied: ‘I have not had such talks. There have been various reports about me. This is particularly in websites and in some weekend newspapers. I don’t mind that as I have got more publicity. But I am happy about the role I played to unite the UNP. If the party is to win (the presidential election) all should get together. No one should be left out.’ Ravi Karunanayake contested Attanayake’s claim by saying he saw the General Secretary visiting Alles’ office at Rosmead Place a number of times.”
That Attanayake, the General Secretary of Sri Lanka’s main opposition United National Party (UNP) is economical with the truth is self-confessed. That he could give mischievous spin to matters affecting party and their supporters is not only a damning indictment on his integrity, but is also a slur on the entire UNP leadership for tolerating it. He told the Working Committee he met the two non-members with the concurrence of the party. Who in the UNP gave such concurrence? Attanayake was not available for comment yesterday. An aide said he was in Kerala attending religious ceremonies at the Tirupathi Temple to ward off malefic influences. Attanayake is not elected but was selected to the UNP National List as an MP by Wickremesinghe.
Even his resignation from the Leadership Council has raised more questions than it has answered. Attanayake is an ex officio member because he is General Secretary. Others who serve in an ex officio capacity are the party Chairman (Kabir Hashim) and Head of Communications (Mangala Samaraweera). Those whose names were recommended by the Eksath Bhikku Peramuna are Karu Jayasuriya, Sajith Premadasa and Ravi Karunanayake. Talata Athukorale was named to represent women’s organisations. When she did not accept it, the position was filled by Wijayadasa Rajapaksha. Other members are Lakshman Kiriella and Ruwan Wijewardene. The tenure of the Leadership Council comes up for renewal at the next annual convention of the UNP, possibly in December this year.
The Sunday Times has learnt that UNP national leader Wickremesinghe did not yield to any of the demands Attanayake pressured him to meet. Such demands had included the immediate dissolution of the Leadership Council, the move that prompted the UNP General Secretary to tender what is termed an illegal resignation. Other demands that emerged this week were for Premadasa to be in charge of party trade unions and other organisations. UNP lawyers have opined that if Attanayake is to cease being a member of the Leadership Council, he would have to resign from the post of General Secretary. Most in the UNP leadership do not want to rock the boat; they have suggested that the newly appointed Deputy General Secretary Akila Viraj Kariyawasam (UNP parliamentarian from the Kurunegala District) take part in the Council meetings.
Since Attanayake’s demands were not heeded, Wickremesinghe sought a meeting with Premadasa on Thursday at 1 p.m. at his office to discuss his duties as Deputy Leader. Besides the national leader, Malik Samarawickrema and Tissa Attanayake waited for him but he did not turn up. Wickremesinghe leaves today for the annual conference of the British Conservative Party in Birmingham in England. Acting for him in Parliament will be the Chief Government Whip, John Ameratunga, as usual. On all other matters, Chairman of the Leadership Council, Karu Jayasuriya will act for the UNP leader.
Already a 20-member Committee has been named to formulate a strategy for the presidential election. Besides Wickremesinghe, it includes Karu Jayasuriya, Tissa Attanayake, Sajith Premadasa, Ruwan Wijewardene, Lakshman Kiriella, Eran Wickremeratne, Harsha de Silva, Thalatha Athukorale, Ranjith Madduma Bandara, Rosie Senanayake, Ajith Perera, Chandrani Bandara, Range Bandara, Ashoka Abeysinghe, Kabir Hashim and Mangala Samaraweera
Wickremesinghe told the Sunday Times there would be two more Committees. One will be to liaise between the different arms of the party, like for example, the Leadership Council and the 20-member Committee. The other is to formulate a Common Programme and negotiate with other political parties. “The SLFP and the UNP are the two largest political parties in Sri Lanka. We in the UNP need a Common Programme to form a Common Front,” he said.
For the first time, Wickremesinghe is making clear that his party will call the shots in the formation of a common front. He will be the presidential candidate and his party will formulate the guidelines for others to get together. For the other opposition political parties, whether this would be an attractive proposition remains to be seen though it seems highly unlikely.
If the UPFA Government’s plans are on track, it will be just three months before the presidential election is held. The recent events within the United National Party lays bare the fact that internecine battles and jockeying for power and positions, some at the behest of outsiders, are not going to end in just three months. They may only exacerbate. That it is coming at a time when there is a groundswell at grassroots level towards UNP in many parts of the country is damning for the party. In the past, the UNP has squandered away issues that have literally fallen on its lap almost every day. Unless the UNP wants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the leadership has to act decisively. That should begin from the top of the party. Otherwise, the leadership will have no one else to blame except themselves for their selective and lackadaisical approach.