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What’s the subtext to the Chinese submarine’s Colombo call?
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The recent docking of a Chinese submarine at the Colombo port caused much consternation in Sri Lanka. The event also triggered reactions from India, Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour and a regional power. Speculation was rife as to the type of sub, the purpose and dates of its stopover, its destination and its mission. A submarine stopping over in Colombo port is not a commonplace occurrence and hence the public concern is not surprising. Chinese submarine presence in the Indian Ocean is a relatively recent phenomenon.
Not least of the concerns has been the fact that the sub’s arrival, not once but twice within a period of several weeks between Sept and Oct, was kept secret until the media raised questions. If the submarine visit was a non-controversial event, timely information about it from relevant authorities could have prevented needless alarm. In a newspaper interview on Wednesday Sri Lanka’s Navy Commander Jayantha Perera gave details:
“The Chinese submarine Changchen 02 accompanied by another vessel Changxingdao reached Colombo on Sept. 7 for refuelling and crew refreshment. The vessels left on Sept. 13. They were on their way to the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somalia. The same vessels arrived at the Colombo port on Oct. 31. They were to leave today (Nov 5).”
‘Xinhua’ news agency quoted a Chinese Defence Ministry official saying “the Chinese submarine docks during its escort missions in the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somalia” – where anti piracy operations are known to take place.
India’s concerns
The navy chief further said it was not a nuclear sub as reported, but a ‘conventional’ one — meaning that it is powered by diesel and not by means of a nuclear reactor. A ‘nuclear sub’ can remain submerged for several months. It does not require refuelling as its energy supply can last up to 30 years. The only resource that limits the time underwater is the food supply for the crew and maintenance of the vessel, according to Wikipedia. Indian media continued to refer to the vessel that visited Colombo as a nuclear sub, even after assurances to the contrary from Sri Lanka.
India’s concerns over what it called ‘China’s increasing military presence’ were expressed during separate visits last month of Sri Lanka’s Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Navy Commander Perera to Delhi. Rajapaksa met both India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Dhoval and Defence Minister Arun Jaitley. The navy chief was quoted in Indian media saying, “We will never compromise on (India’s) national security. India’s security is our security.”
The second docking of Chengzheng 2 on its return journey from the Gulf of Aden took place after these meetings, to Delhi’s annoyance. According to the ‘Times of India:’
“Sri Lanka allowed the docking despite NSA Ajit Doval’s warning to Lankan defence secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa that any presence of a Chinese submarine in Sri Lanka would be unacceptable to India. The government is now left with no option but to look upon Lanka’s defiance as “inimical” to India’s interests.”
A different complexion
An entirely different complexion to the Sino-Lanka relationship, than that which is suggested in the Indian (media) reactions, was given during a seminar held at the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute on Friday on the subject of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road.’ The Silk Road initiative was actively canvassed by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his Asian tour in September. It seeks to draw on the historical, cultural and civilisational connectivities associated with the ancient trade route that linked China to the Mediterranean and Arab world.
Sri Lanka’s former Ambassador to China and former Secretary General of SAARC, Nihal Rodrigo in his talk made a fleeting reference to the ‘Chinese vessels in Colombo.’ He said that after Gotabaya Rajapaksa had indicated they posed no threat “it is accepted now that it is to combat certain criminal activities.” Elaborating further on the sidelines of the seminar Rodrigo told the ‘Sunday Times’ that a submarine being in the Indian Ocean was not surprising. “It may be considered routine in a normal situation.” The Defence Secretary was able to explain that this was not some ‘vicious thing’ and we were not ‘plotting with the Chinese’ he said. “Basically the Indians are not sort of screaming about it.”
The whole question of what exactly the dangers in the Indian Ocean are is not clear, according to the former ambassador to Sri Lanka’s Permanent Missions to the UN in New York, Geneva and Vienna. But it is known for certain that people smuggling, drug smuggling and gun running are going on. People smuggling was a huge issue for Australia as well, and Sri Lanka worked with China to curb it, he said. As further evidence of growing acceptance of the importance of Asian connectivity, he cited the Asia Infrastructure Development Bank soon to be set up in China – a kind of alternative to the ADB – whose chief will be an Indian.
Western suspicions
Western perceptions of China’s expanding naval capabilities remain fraught with suspicion. According to the ‘Wall Street Journal’ the first known voyage of a Chinese submarine to the Indian Ocean was in December 2013, when a nuclear powered attack submarine passed through the Malacca Strait, resurfaced near Sri Lanka and then in the Persian Gulf, before returning in February.
“The message was clear: China had fulfilled its four-decade quest to join the elite club of countries with nuclear subs that can ply the high seas.” The article also refers to the deployment of a diesel powered sub in September which stopped off in Sri Lanka. This year China is set to launch a sub carrying nuclear missiles for the first time, WSJ cites the US Office of Naval Intelligence as saying. It adds:
“Beijing isn’t likely to try matching the U.S. sub force, having studied the way the Cold War arms race drained the Soviet Union’s finances. “We’re not that stupid,” says retired Maj. Gen. Xu Guangyu, a former vice president of the People’s Liberation Army Defense Institute. “But we need enough nuclear submarines to be a credible force-to have some bargaining chips.”