Columns
If Sirisena wins, what next?
View(s):Now that the initial shock effect of the announcement regarding Maithripala Sirisena’s candidacy in the presidential race has subsided, the questions that arise the ‘morning after’ are many. Sirisena’s courageous move in breaking ranks with the Government to challenge as formidable an opponent as Mahinda Rajapaksa continues to generate the admiration it deserves. What he has described in terms of a resolve to ‘rescue’ the SLFP from Rajapaksa diktat has also earned him respect.
As a presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena has a political profile that is more desirable than that of some of the previous contenders from the ‘joint opposition’ project. However, a crucial question influencing the outcome of the election will be how much cross-party support he can get from the main political parties during the campaign. Civil society representatives and organisations such as those that appeared on the joint opposition platform may contribute to creating awareness and building up momentum, but they do not represent vote banks as the established parties do. If Sirisena wins, he will immediately thereafter need the backing of parties represented in parliament to push through the constitutional changes which form the main plank of his campaign.
The ‘common candidate’ has strongly asserted his SLFP affiliation and maintains he is still the party’s General Secretary. It is still not clear what degree of support will be extended to him by the JVP, although the JHU seems poised to back him. The TNA and the SLMC have yet to declare their stance.
Opposition’s dilemma
The question as to how Sirisena expects to muster two thirds of the legislature’s votes to effect constitutional change still remains a grey area. To start with, a mass defection on such a large scale — voluntary or engineered — is an unlikely prospect. Besides, a re-enactment of the recent history of cross-overs to achieve narrow partisan goals is hardly a drama to be emulated, and would run counter to the opposition’s pledge to rectify negative aspects of the prevailing political culture.
It may be the realisation of this dilemma that has led the opposition camp to float the idea of a ‘national unity government,’ and to solicit the support of ‘all political parties’ at the initial stage when the reforms are to be introduced. This was the gist of UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe’s speech on Wednesday at the UNP headquarters, Sirikotha, where Sirisena was welcomed and he too addressed UNP party organisers. Wickremesinghe said the Government to be established when Sirisena wins will be neither a UNP government nor an SLFP government. He said this interim government that exists until a general election is held, will be formed with the support of all political parties. But does this not remain at best a case of wishful thinking? How is the voter to know whether such cross-party support will materialise? The behaviour of parliamentary MPs of different stripes in this situation is highly unpredictable.
UNP MP Mangala Samaraweera’s recent remarks at Sirikotha suggest a shift from the position of complete abolition of the executive presidency to that of scaling down its powers, according to media reports. This step-down from the original call may possibly be with a view to making the proposed reforms more pragmatic, and acceptable to a wider constituency. He reportedly expressed the expectation that the interim arrangement of a ‘unity government,’ which anticipates the cooperation of UPFA MPs, will continue till the general election.
Who will be empowered?
The biggest dilemma that voters will be confronted with in this election is the question as to which party they would empower, if they vote for Sirisena. This conundrum follows from his announcement that he will appoint Wickremesinghe as prime minister. If and when the promised constitutional changes are brought about, the locus of power will shift from the presidency to the prime ministership. So will a vote for Sirisena actually be a vote for Wickremesinghe, in disguise? And how acceptable, or even constitutional is it, to make Wickremesinghe prime minister of a legislature in which his party does not have an elected majority?
Sirisena in his speech at Sirikotha warned that the Government will try to discredit the opposition campaign by telling UNPers that it is a ploy to hand over power to former president Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and himself, while at the same time telling SLFPers that it is an attempt to hand over power to the UNP. On the contrary he said, the idea was to build a government free of corruption, nepotism, fraud an injustice with the support of the UNP, SLFP and several other parties. He invited all parties to join this interim national government that will prevail for a 100 days, and to support the move to do away with the executive presidency, after which a general election would be called.
A bold gamble
The joint opposition sought to respond to some of the doubts that have arisen at a media conference on Friday at the Opposition Leader’s office at Marcus Fernando Mawatha. It was attended by the presidential candidate along with Karu Jayasuriya, Ven Athuruliye Rathan thera and breakaway UPFA ministers Rajitha Senaratna and M K D S Gunewardena. Sirisena categorically said he would defend Mahinda Rajapaksa, his family members and the armed forces in the face of any attempt to haul them before a war crimes tribunal. However, there was a lack of clarity in responses to questions relating to the opposition’s proposed economic policy, and its views on national reconciliation.
Former president Kumaratunga’s presence at the New Town Hall media conference where Sirisena’s candidacy was announced, and her remarks there have led to some speculation as to what influence she may wield in the event of an opposition victory. Sirisena responding to a question said they had no plans to assign her any role, nor had she made such a request.
The opposition project would seem to be a bold gamble at this point. Its chief protagonists will have to address its many ‘unknowns’ in the days ahead, if they want to look like a coherent and credible alternative in the eyes of the voter.