Sunday Times 2
Battle lines drawn: National security and development vs. corruption and CoL
A President, who has two years of a six-year term yet to go, calls for an election for a good electoral reason.
The reason is captured in the figures in Table 1. The last presidential election was held in January 2010. In the Provincial Council elections of September 2012 the Government lost its voter share in six of the seven districts by margins that varied between about 3.7 percentage points in Kegalle, Ratnapura and Anuradhapura to as much as over 14 percentage points in Ampara and Trincomalee. Batticaloa was the only exception. One year later in September 2013 the government did very well to hold its own in all five districts in Wayamba and Central Province. The PC election in Jaffna and the Vanni was in territory that the TNA dominates.
The Provincial Council elections of March and September 2014 reflect the most recent opinion of the public as to government performance. The elections were in the voter-rich Western Province and the Southern Province that together account for as much as 40 per cent (about 6 million voters) of the14.5 million strong national electorate. Compared with 2010 statistics, the Government lost, on average, about 5 percentage points in the Western Province and over 6 percentage points in the Southern Province. The trend continued in September 2014 when the government lost over 5 percentage points in the ethnically mixed Badulla district and over 10 in the 96% Sinhalese Buddhist rural district of Moneragala.
The reading on the wall was clear. The popularity of the government was slipping. In 2010, fresh from war victory, Mr. Rajapaksa was beyond reach electorally. As war memory faded, cost of living issues were taking over. The president quite rightly judged, especially after Uva, that it would be risky to wait any longer. The economy was likely to prove unsustainable in the long run. The issues that frame the current election campaign confirm the above reasoning.
The Government’s main arguments boil down to three issues. The first is the argument that the security of the country is safer in the hands of Mr. Rajapaksa. Arguments about patriotism, foreign conspiracies and the like are simply sub-plots of this main plot.
Second, the Government asserts that the peace dividend is seen in its mega development projects.
Third, the Government argues that the 2015 budget provided the first taste of the peace dividend for the people and further goodies will be available to them if Mr. Rajapaksa is re-elected.
The Opposition has challenged the Government on all three of the above arguments. They concede that Mr. Rajapaksa played the lead political role in securing victory against terrorism. But it also, rightly in our opinion, gives credit to General Sarath Fonseka and the soldiers for being the true and authentic war heroes. More importantly, the Opposition argues that national security is now safe and secure and alleged foreign conspiracies are electoral red herrings to mislead the voter.
Second, the opposition sees mega development projects not as a great benefit to the country and ordinary people but as white elephants that have paved the way to waste, bribery, corruption on an unprecedented scale that has benefited the ruling class and a few of their cronies.
Third, the 2015 budget is seen as a pure election gundu (trick) to bribe voters. The Opposition argues that the high cost of living is the result of wastage and corruption that can be eliminated only if the dictatorial executive presidency is abolished, and a cleaner all-party national government that respects the rule of law and democracy is established under new leadership.
The great merit of the current presidential campaign is that the voters have a clear choice before them. They can either choose to vote for continuity and the stability of sorts that comes with it or vote for change to make a fresh start. Each side appears to discover that it is not as easy as it looks to make its case. Voters do, generally speaking, like continuity and stability. But if the Opposition is to be believed, it will be continuity and stability of a very undesirable type. Voters also may like to start afresh after 30 years of war. But they also do not want instability and uncertainty let alone chaos.
Often election campaigns are under-estimated as mere political theatre and a waste of time and resources. That is almost never the case and the current election cycle is no exception. The winner will be the side that conducts an effective and vigorous campaign for the remaining fortnight or so leaving nothing whatsoever to chance.