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The new Indo-Lanka equation — what was India’s role?
View(s):There has been increasing speculation in the international media that India influenced developments in the run-up to Sri Lanka’s January 8 election, contributing to a regime change. It originated with a Reuters news agency report that said Sri Lanka last month expelled the Colombo station chief of India’s spy agency RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), for allegedly helping opposition forces oust former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. The report cited unnamed Indian officials and a Sri Lankan lawmaker.
Uniting a fractious opposition
Briefing reporters following Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera’s visit to Delhi last weekend India’s external affairs spokesman Syed Akbaruddin, responding to a journalist’s question, rubbished the story saying the official concerned had ended his tour of duty and that it was a ‘normal transfer.’ “Using unnamed sources is just hiding behind and obscuring the truth,” he said. But on Thursday another report quoted TNA parliamentarian M A Sumanthiran affirming the claims. According to Reuters:
“In the build up to the January 8 election, India played a role in uniting Sri Lanka’s usually fractious opposition, for which the station chief of India’s spy agency was expelled, diplomatic and political sources say. “At least that was the perception of Mahinda Rajapaksa,” said M.A. Sumanthiran, a prominent member of the Tamil National Alliance, a coalition of parties close to India. “He managed to get one of their top diplomats recalled.”
The Indian agent has been accused of ‘facilitating meetings’ to encourage defections from the Rajapaksa government, including that of former health minister Maithripala Sirisena, and persuading then Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe to stand down in the presidential race in favour of ‘someone who could be sure of winning.’ The agent was also in touch with former president Chandrika Kumaratunga, described as ‘a key player in convincing Sirisena to stand,’ the first report said.
Indian security concerns
The Indian displeasure is attributed to the Rajapaksa government’s pro-China tilt. “The message is clear, that you do not ignore Indian security concerns,” an Indian diplomatic source has told Reuters.
Days ahead of the election, the Sunday Times said claims that RAW station chief K. Ilango had links with the Common Opposition had cost him his job, and that the recall order followed the visit to Colombo by India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa is reported to have complained to Doval over Ilango’s activities.
Indian media reported that Doval met Sirisena, Kumaratunga, Wickremesinghe and TNA leaders ahead of his meeting with Rajapaksa during his December visit to attend a defence seminar. But the Indian High Commission in Colombo in its press release on the NSA’s visit avoided mentioning names of the Common Opposition politicians he met, only saying ‘Representatives of various political parties also met the National Security Adviser.’
Modi and the TNA
According to Reuters, “Mr Sumanthiran said Mr. Modi had encouraged the Tamil alliance to join forces with others in politics.” In Sri Lanka, the TNA’s decision to back Sirisena as presidential candidate has been seen as a key factor that swung the Tamil vote in his favour, contributing significantly to his victory.
“India most definitely influences the elections of its neighbours, although rarely to the extent of picking winners,” says Indian commentator Rohan Venkataramakrishnan. “Its diplomatic and intelligence corps exist to protect India’s interests, so this would not be out of their ambit. But the objective is reversed if the world comes to know about this influence,” he wrote in a web article.
It’s well known that India has been watching rival China’s growing footprint in Sri Lanka with increasing anxiety. The turning point in the relationship was when Colombo allowed a Chinese submarine to dock in its port last September, Reuters said, apparently without informing Delhi. However, when Tamil Nadu’s Thanthi TV in a pre-election interview asked Rajapaksa about the docking of Chinese warships in Colombo, the former president replied that “it was known to India before they left — because we informed them.” When it was put to him that his regime was ‘more China-centric than India-centric,’ Rajapaksa emphatically denied it saying “I will not allow anybody to use my soil against my friends and my neighbours. My problem is that I must develop my country.” During the election campaign Sirisena and Wickremesinghe repeatedly hinted that their coalition would reverse the pro-China tilt if they came to power.
Policy shift
Delhi was the first foreign destination of Foreign Minister Samaraweera , who met his Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj barely a week into his job. Sirisena too is expected to visit India next month, in his first overseas visit as president. While the priority given to Delhi could be seen as perfectly in order from a foreign policy point of view, there is a shadow cast over these positive moves in the light of the alleged espionage that preceded them. Responding to the allegations in the Reuters report Samaraweera told the Chennai-based Hindu newspaper “There is no substance in the report at all.” He spoke of a need for ‘course correction’ saying that “under Mahinda Rajapaksa Colombo had followed a “paranoid” foreign policy and had become alienated internationally as well.”
While the discussion between the Sri Lankan and Indian foreign ministers was described by India’s external affairs spokesman as “extremely cordial, positive and substantive,” it’s conspicuous that Non-alignment has apparently not been mentioned even once by either party. It’s significant too that at tomorrow’s Republic Day celebrations in India the chief guest, at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will be US President Barack Obama.
This will be the first time a US president graces that event. These developments would need to be seen in the broader context of the US’s ‘pivot to Asia’ policy, designed to contain the rise of China. The question that would preoccupy analysts now, if the Reuters reports are given credence, is whether the government’s ‘policy shift’ is the outcome of careful consideration of what is best in the national interest, or whether Sri Lanka has simply become a pawn in the maneuverings of big powers in the region.