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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka — historic in the sense that it is the first by an Indian PM in 28 years — comes at a time Sri Lanka’s political landscape is in a state of flux. With a general election looming on the horizon, discussions are going on between the government and opposition on a range of issues — its timing, the electoral system under which it should be held and important constitutional reforms. Signs of a comeback by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa present further ramifications and fresh divisions of loyalty.

A peculiarity of the prevailing situation is that the UNP which recently formed a government, and whose members hold most of the Cabinet posts, is heavily outnumbered by opposition UPFA members in parliament. The majority in the opposition coalition also belongs to the SLFP of President Maithripala Sirisena who, as party leader, has declared his intention to defeat the UNP in the upcoming election. In spite of the fact that some of its members face legal action on charges ranging from bribery to murder, the opposition has various bargaining chips at its disposal on account of these unique circumstances. The balance of power that may emerge by the time the election is called is hard to predict.

Unsettled backdrop

The impressive crowds attending rallies in support of Rajapaksa’s return to politics and the hundreds trekking daily to his Tangalle residence may be further reasons for disquiet in the Government. It walks a tightrope in its bid to maintain all-party support long enough to fulfil the promises of its 100-day programme. Is its latest move of offering the opposition a number of Cabinet portfolios in a ‘national government,’ a sign of the jitters? The JVP has roundly criticised the proposal — which smacks of horse-trading among politicians at the expense of constituents — pointing out that the resulting jumbo Cabinet will also be in breach of an election promise.

This is the unsettled backdrop against which the Indian prime minister arrives on his first official trip to Sri Lanka. It is the last stop on his ‘islands’ tour from 10th to 14th March which starts in Seychelles, followed by Mauritius. In Sri Lanka Modi is expected to travel to Anuradhapura, Talaimannar and Jaffna. He will be accorded the honour of addressing a Special Sitting of Parliament. “President Maithripala Sirisena will hold bilateral discussions with the visiting Prime Minister and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will host a lunch in honour of Prime Minister Modi” says a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Indian External Affairs Ministry statement, however, says he will have meetings with “other senior leaders across the political spectrum” as well.

Countering China
Sri Lanka is said to be ‘at the top of Mr Modi’s agenda’ according to Reuters, which says he expects to ‘tighten defence and security cooperation’ on this visit, and ‘push for final approval’ of the Sampur power project in the strategic port of Trincomalee. It is fairly obvious that countering China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean Region figures prominently in the calculations underlying the Indian leader’s tour. China has been growing its footprint in Asia and Africa through infrastructure development projects and maritime expansion. Delhi was angered by the docking of a Chinese submarine in Colombo last year. It is against the background of re-setting foreign policy to improve relations with India and the West, that the new Sri Lankan government is reviewing Chinese-funded mega infrastructure projects launched by the previous regime.

Indian Ocean security
According to Reuters, Modi will “offer island nations in the Indian Ocean a broad range of military and civilian assistance next week in a bid to wrest back some of the influence China has gained by spending billions of dollars in the region.” It quotes Indian officials as saying New Delhi is hoping to “tie the islands into a closer security embrace.” It cites defence officials involved in preparations for his trip as saying that “India has a role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region.” The idea of India as a ‘net security provider’ in the region has been around for some time; former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh too gave expression to it in 2013.

Given the fluid political situation in Sri Lanka though, the wisdom of Modi’s visit barely two months after the government changed is being questioned by some analysts. A key political figure in the BJP who believes the visit is a mistake had tried hard to dissuade the Indian prime minister, it is learnt. As an observer constantly with his ear to the ground, he gathered that Modi would not be overly welcome in Sri Lanka at this time. This is partly because of the perception, right or wrong, that India’s spy agency RAW (Research & Analysis Wing) had something to do with Rajapaksa’s defeat. Rajapkasa in a recent interview told Dawn, a leading Pakistan newspaper, that “What happened in my country and the insurgency happening in your country, RAW … is behind it.” Even in government circles the initial relief over having gotten rid of a corrupt regime is being replaced by a sense of indignation, according to this assessment.

Building trust
A Sri Lankan analyst who concurred with the BJP leader’s view noted that “when you show so much enthusiasm over the new government, you convince that you had something to do with it.” He pointed out that after a hiatus of 28 years the first visit by an Indian head of state was taking place before even three months had passed since the regime change. From Sri Lanka’s perspective, it was as if ‘the bully was now being nice to us.’ He thought this would make Rajapaksa that much more popular.

It would appear that Delhi has a long way to go before it comes to be seen as a ‘net security provider’ in the region. To reach that level of acceptance it would perhaps need to first build up a greater degree of trust with its neighbours.