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As the Government’s 100-day programme’s deadline draws nearer, it is apparent that aspects of it are not on track. It was a gamble to start with, since the awkward UNP-SLFP coalition had no way of knowing at the time, how things would pan out it if couldn’t secure a parliamentary majority in order to implement its proposed reforms.

For the most part, important government decisions are being made by a troika consisting of President Maithripala Sirisena, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and former president Chandrika Kumaratunga. While it will be argued that appointing Wickremesinghe as PM was mentioned in the election manifesto, the fact remains that he did not assume that position as a result of his party winning an election, and it was therefore not based on a people’s mandate. Nor was the appointment made on the basis of being the MP ‘most likely to command the confidence of parliament’ as would normally be the case. As a result of these unusual circumstances, does the Government suffer from instability caused by lack of legitimacy? And does this partly explain the undue haste with which constitutional amendments that will transfer powers from the president to the prime minister, are sought to be passed? In sections of the Opposition and in the street, this idea is being expressed as an attempt to ‘pick-pocket’ power.

Disillusionment with SLFP
Questions also arise over the role of Kumaratunga, known to have been a key figure in ushering in Sirisena as presidential candidate of the joint opposition. She is also thought to have influenced a number of SLFP crossovers that strengthened the hand of the present ruling coalition. How do these attributes entitle her to a decision-making role in government affairs? In what appears to be her first officially assigned role, Kumaratunga was appointed to head a Presidential Task Force on Reconciliation. Its composition, purpose and powers have not been revealed to the public. This is a complex area of decision-making that would probably overlap with that of several others entities. One might have expected a more democratic approach in appointing such a body.

It is against a backdrop of disillusionment with the SLFP and this turn of events, that the UPFA’s coalition partners led by Dinesh Gunewardena, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, Wimal Weerawansa and JHU-breakaway Udaya Gammanpila have rallied behind former president Mahinda Rajapaksa to campaign for his return to politics as prime ministerial candidate at the parliamentary election. Nanayakkara says the power of parliament was ‘usurped’ in the appointment of Wickremesinghe and with the removal and appointment of Supreme Court judges by the president. The UNP-SLFP government was formed “without a mandate from the SLFP that got 5.8 million votes,” he told the Sunday Times. “On neither of these counts has the government acted legitimately and with credibility. The government must resign and hold an election.”

Numbers game
According to reports over 25, or roughly one fifth of SLFP MPs attended the last pro-Rajapaksa rally, held in Ratnapura. They defied orders from the party hierarchy to do so, along with several hundreds of local government representatives who form the party’s grassroots support base. At this point the number of MPs ready to openly back Rajapaksa would be around half the number that joined the government. While the huge public response to these events should in itself be a source of worry to government, the more remarkable feature, reflected in the video footage, is the palpable emotion demonstrated by the crowds.

It is now a numbers game focused on the SLFP that will determine whether the government will have the required majority to pass the 19th Amendment in parliament. The past couple of weeks, to the surprise of many, saw the release on bail of two prominent SLFP MPs — Sajin Vass Gunewardena, charged by the Commission on Bribery or Corruption for non-declaration of assets, and Duminda Silva, arrested in connection with the murder of Bharatha Lakshman Premachandra.

Selective targeting?
Meanwhile during the same period the police Financial Crime Investigation Division took a statement from war-time Air Force Commander Air Chief Marshal Roshan Goonetileke over a 2006 deal to purchase MiG27 aircraft. Wimal Weerawansa has charged that former service personnel are being harassed, including former Navy Commander Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda. While the third service chief from that period, former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka has been promoted as Field Marshal, and rightly given back ranks and titles he had been unfairly stripped of, one cannot help noticing that he happens to be with the ruling coalition now, whereas the other two represent ‘ancien regime.’

The government needs to fulfil the mandate given by the people to root out corruption and punish offenders. But it’s not helpful if its actions are seen to be selective, or politically motivated.

Sri Lanka’s war was fought not only on the battlefield but also on the diplomatic front, particularly after the military defeat of the LTTE when it took on the character of a ‘cold war.’ Former UN ambassador Tamara Kunanayakam was part of that exercise, having defended the country in Geneva when the 2012 US-led resolution was brought against Sri Lanka. However Kunanayakam was recently vilified on public television by Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, who accused her of having LTTE links. Kunanayakam has said she will pursue legal action to clear her name.

Problem with troika
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe in recent remarks has hinted at significant changes to the armed forces, suggesting that a large scale decommissioning is possibly on the cards. While the role of the army in peacetime is a subject that certainly needs to be discussed, there is a question as to the legitimacy of such decisions being made – unilaterally it appears — by an unelected prime minister.

Part of the problem with rule by a troika, of whom two members remain unelected, is that its decisions will not reflect the will of the people. Doubts then arise as to whether decisions are made to please external (Western) patrons and benefactors without whose support the government might collapse. The government proceeds along this track at its peril, because the resulting discontent will surely find a comfortable home in the ‘Bring back Mahinda’ movement.