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The Horse Race- Curious case of the 25 UPFA portfolios
View(s):On March 22, 25 UPFA MPs were appointed ministers. Was there a basis on which these 25 MPs were chosen? Analysis by Manthri.lk, Sri Lanka’s pioneering parliamentary monitoring platform, identifies three criteria that form the basis of President Sirisena’s selection: (1) Winning potential (2) Geographical distribution (3) District targeting.
Strategy: Securing the support of ‘prized stallion’ MPs who received large numbers of Preference Votes (PV) in 2010, can increase the likelihood of securing their voter base. This can also unlock the opportunity of the two remaining PVs (a ballot paper allows for three PVs) going to favoured candidates.
Picking the winning horses: The 25 MPs represent 16 of the 22 Electoral Districts (ED) in the country, or 82% of the country’s registered voters – indicating a broad spread. Figure 1 shows the distribution of these new ministers by their EDs and their performance in terms of rank, by PVs received at the 2010 General Elections – with only one District, Gampaha, having three new ministerial appointees.
There are three key observations (1) Eight of the new UPFA ministers are ‘solo’ representatives, but a recent spate of resignations leave gaps in the strategy– most distinctly felt in Ratnapura (Pavithra Wanniarachchi) and Badulla (Dilan Perera) (2) The case of the two Colombo MPs appears anomalous, however, both MPs are closely connected to former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, a potential factor in their appointment (Jeevan Kumaratunga and AHM Fowzie) (3) 14 of the 25 MPs rank in the top three of their EDs, supporting the theory that President Sirisena is picking the ‘prized stallions’ ahead of the ‘also-rans’.
No money on the long shot: Of the six EDs without a ministerial appointment, five belong to the Northern and Eastern Provinces – areas synonymous with minority votes, where the UPFA does not fare well. The last remaining ED is Polonnaruwa, President Sirisena’s stronghold, which will be considered the first District to align with his faction.
Does this selection of 25 MPs reflect the meritocratic potential of the PV system currently in place? Or is popularity over-determining the composition of the executive? Share your thoughts and questions at www.manthri.lk/en/blog; over Twitter @manthrilk, or by text to the manthri.lk hotline: 0714 639 882.