IMF Executive Board suggests Sri Lanka to tighten fiscal policies
View(s):Sri Lanka faces a policy challenge to reduce external vulnerabilities and address the deterioration in the balance of payments. Tighter fiscal and monetary policies could help restrict aggregate demand, contain the recent sharp rise in imports, and strenthen the externalbalance,International Monitoring Fund(IMF) executive board revealed in its assessment after its conclusion of fourth post-program monitoring in the island.
However, to be more effective, these policies should be supported by greater exchange rate flexibility, reduced foreign exchange intervention, and efforts to deepen the foreign exchange market, as well as structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, a media release issued by the IMF said.
It said that the financial sector remains relatively stable, and the authorities are taking measures to tackle remaining vulnerabilities in the nonbank financial sector. However, there is the need for continued progress in consolidated bank supervision and in developing a more robust stress testing framework.
The Executive Board of the IMF concluded the Fourth Post-Program Monitoring (PPM) with Sri Lanka,on November 13, 2015.In view of high public debt, fiscal developments this year pose a risk to the economy and call for ambitious measures in the 2016 budget to put Sri Lanka’s fiscal position on a more sustainable footing, the release said. Sri Lanka has a very low tax-to-GDP ratio, and high levels of current expenditure constrain needed development spending, limit policy space, and threaten debt sustainability. Therefore, a comprehensive reform of tax policy and administration, and a prompt resumption of fiscal consolidation supported by increased revenues should be a key policy priority.
With the recent acceleration in private sector credit growth and rising core inflation, there is now little scope for further monetary easing. Most factors—including the deterioration in the balance of payments and pressures on the rupee—suggest that the Central Bank should be prepared to tighten monetary policy in the coming months, albeit at a gradual pace.Recent economic developments reflect a more challenging external environment as well as a sharpening of macro-financial imbalances that began to emerge late in 2014. During the first half of 2015, growth picked up to 5.6 per cent versus 4.5 per cent in 2014, the release said.
Headline inflation fell to -0.3 per cent in September before rising to 1.7 per cent in October, while core inflation (excluding fresh food, transport, and energy prices) has risen since the beginning of 2015, reaching 4.4 per cent in October.. However, the large increase in wages and salaries in the revised 2015 budget and lower administered prices have boosted incomes. Together with a reduction in import taxes on vehicles, this has fed through to a sharp rise in imports, a deterioration in he non oil current account balance, rising core inflation, and continued weakness in the structure of public finances, the release said. Further, external risks have risen. Global growth prospects have weakened it said. Global financial conditions have tightened and may rebalance further when the U.S. Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates, according to the release.
Economic growth continued to be fairly strong in 2015, while headline inflation has remained low. The external current account deficit is projected to narrow moderately in 2015, due largely to lower oil prices. Private sector credit growth has picked up sharply in 2015. At the same time, deterioration in the overall balance of payments, the loss of central bank foreign exchange reserves, the weak state of public finances, and growing public debt are reasons for concern.Despite continued access to international debt markets, these trends suggest that financial risks for Sri Lanka have increased. To mitigate these risks, the authorities should take appropriate corrective actions to safeguard macroeconomic stability and lay the foundation for durable and inclusive growth. Improvements in the business climate, reform of state owned enterprises, and a more open trade regime are key to boosting competitiveness and growth media release disclosed.