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Potpouri of fringe parties splinter T’Nadu polls festival
It is election time in Tamil Nadu. On May 16, nearly 58 million voters (of which 29.1 million are women) will elect 234 representatives to the Tamil Nadu Legislature, who in turn will form the next provincial government in the State.
Sri Lankan politics or “ethnic Tamil problems” are of no significance in this election. Whoever the winner in Tamil Nadu, will have no impact on Indo-Sri Lanka relations, so long as the BJP-led Narendra Modi government is in power at the Centre. The only points being mentioned by the AIADMK and the DMK, the main protagonists in this election, are the age-old Katchatheevu islet and Sri Lankan Navy “attacks” on Tamil Nadu fishermen.
A fringe party named Naam Tamilar led by a controversial movie maker Seeman Sebastian, is the only outfit which speaks about Eelam and ethnic issues in the island nation. But, other than a group of ruffians who accompany him wherever he goes, Sebastian has no followers. His campaign rallies are well decorated with larger than life banners and portraits of LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran who was the main accused in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case. Moreover, Seeman Sebastian is an accused in sexual harassment cases filed by some actresses, and there is no likelihood of a conservative Tamil society in the State accepting a politician like him.
The characters or players in this electoral battle are AIADMK, DMK, Congress, BJP, DMDK, PMK, MDMK, the Lefts and some communal outfits such as the Muslim League, Puthiya Tamilagam and VCK. In India, there is no proportional representation system and all the candidates are elected directly by the people on the ‘first-pass-the-post’ system.
The only important issue in this election is whether the ruling AIADMK would retain power or the DMK regains the power it lost at the 2011 election to Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. As Returning officers across the state started receiving nomination papers from the candidates on Friday, the AIADMK led by Jayalalithaa, seems to have a slight edge over the others. But that is no indication of the outcome on May 16, as each day is a long day in politics.
At the 2014 Indian Parliamentary elections, the AIADMK, without any allies or fronts, literally swept Tamil Nadu. Of the 39 seats at stake, the AIADMK walked away with 37, leaving one seat each to the BJP and the PMK, an outfit promoted by the Vanniyar community. The AIADMK bagged 44% of the total votes polled in that election. The DMK and the Congress were obliterated from Tamil Nadu and both the parties are yet to recover from that shock. What stands out this time is that there is no visible anti-incumbency factor against Jayalalithaa, as she has won all by-polls held in the State, after she came to power in 2011.
Tamil Nadu politics has been dominated by the DMK and the AIADMK since 1967. The Congress, which ruled the State from 1947 to 1967, was defeated and unseated by the DMK at the 1967 assembly elections. The Grand Old Party of India is surviving in Tamil Nadu only because of the support provided either by the DMK or the AIADMK. When Congress contested the 2014 parliamentary elections on its own, 38 of its 39 candidates lost their security deposit having failed to secure the minimum votes required.
The DMK which unseated the Congress in 1967, had an unbroken reign of 10 years. It suffered its first defeat in 1977, at the hands of the AIADMK formed by M.G. Ramachandran. MGR, as Ramachandran was popularly known, was inducted into the DMK by party founder C.N. Annadurai, with the hope of exploiting his glamour as the reigning superstar of Tamil films, for the benefit of the party. But, when MGR became the face of the DMK, Karunanidhi who became party president and Chief Minister (CM) in 1969, following Annadurai’s death, felt uncomfortable because he saw MGR as a possible threat to his own son Stalin, whom he wanted to anoint as his successor.
This resulted in the ouster of MGR from the DMK on flimsy grounds in 1971. MGR responded by launching the AIADMK, which trounced the DMK at the next assembly elections held in 1977, and MGR was sworn in as CM, the first ever film actor becoming a government leader anywhere in Asia. Karunanidhi had to be on the sidelines till 1989, as MGR reigned supreme till 1987. With his passing away in 1987, the mantle fell on Janaki, his widow, but she could not last long.
Though Karunanidhi was returned to power at the 1989 assembly elections, his government was dismissed by the Centre in 1991, using Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, citing a breakdown in law and order in Tamil Nadu, as well as Karunanidhi’s closeness to the LTTE. In the ensuing election, the Congress forged an alliance with the AIADMK and literally obliterated the DMK. The DMK won just two seats in a House of 234.
By 1996, Jayalalithaa had squandered the public’s goodwill and her reputation was at its lowest ebb. The Congress underwent a split in Tamil Nadu, following the Central leadership’s decision to continue the alliance with the AIADMK. The breakaway faction led by G.K. Moopanar, a loyalist of Sonia Gandhi, entered into an alliance with the DMK. This time it was the turn of the DMK-Moopanar duo to defeat Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK suffered a humiliating defeat and Karunanidhi sworn in as CM again. The next five years turned out to be a period of Agni Pareeksha (trial by fire) for Jayalalithaa, who was arrested on charges of corruption and convicted in two major cases of corruption, criminal conspiracy and misuse of official power. She was sentenced to 3-years rigorous imprisonment in a deal involving government-owned land.
The 1996-2001 reign of Karunanidhi’s was uneventful with no visible anti-incumbency feeling towards the DMK government. Most of the poll surveys held prior to the 2001 assembly election showed that Karunanidhi would return to power. Interestingly, other than MGR, nobody else had succeeded in winning two successive elections. If Karunanidhi was voted back into power in 2001, he would have been the first CM after MGR to retain power. But what happened in the 2001 election was bizarre, strange and surprising. Jayalalithaa, whose nomination papers were rejected from four constituencies, thrashed the DMK lock, stock and barrel. She was sworn in as CM, despite being disqualified by her 3-year imprisonment.
But in September 2001, the Supreme Court, while considering a petition filed by a New Delhi-based lawyer, ruled that the Tamil Nadu governor had erred in swearing in Jayalalithaa as CM and declared her appointment null and void, in the backdrop of her conviction by the special court. Jayalalithaa selected O. Paneerselvam, one of her trusted lieutenants, as the standby CM. As she was acquitted of all charges by the Madras High Court, Jayalalithaa was sworn in again as the CM by early 2002.
The parliamentary elections of 2004 saw Karunanidhi cobbling up a rainbow alliance which had all the other parties except the BJP, to take on Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK faced a total rout in the 2004 parliamentary election, having failed to win even a single seat. The next assembly election in 2006 saw Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK losing it by a whisker. The DMK failed to win an absolute majority as it should have 118 seats of its own in a House of 234, to form a government. As the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre depended on the 16 member-DMK for its survival, the Congress extended outside support to Karunanidhi who became CM for the fifth time.
At the 2009 parliamentary elections, the DMK-led front continued its winning streak by bagging 27 of the 39 seats from Tamil Nadu. But the Congress was no more dependent on the DMK, as the party had won more seats than it had in 2004. The second term of the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government saw a number of scams and corruption charges against prominent members of the union cabinet and its constituent parties. The first to quit was A. Raja, Minister of Communications & Information Technology, following the Rs 174,000 crore scandal associated with the allocation of spectrum for mobile and internet service providers. Raja was followed by Kanimozhi, a member of parliament and Karunanidhi’s daughter by his third wife Rajathi. Raja and Kanimozhi were accused of allocating spectrum to a letter-head company which sold it to another company for a “giant kill”. Kanimozhi got Rs 200 crore as kickback in this deal.
When the scam and the case were at their peak, it was time for the 2011 assembly election. There was a total realignment of parties in Tamil Nadu. It was Jayalalithaa’s turn to form a rainbow alliance against Karunanidhi and the Congress. She roped in Vijayakant, a film actor-turned politician and the DMDK, a party launched by the latter. The communists and some fringe parties too joined Jayalalithaa. The election threw some surprises. The DMK which ruled the state many times since 1967, finished with just 21 seats, while the Vijayakanth -ed DMDK emerged as the main Opposition.
The bonhomie between Vijayakant and Jayalalithaa did not last long. Even before the completion of the government’s first year, the DMDK and the AIADMK fell out and became sworn enemies. Vijayakant declared that his only mission was to defeat Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK. But the 2014 parliamentary elections saw the AIADMK sweeping 37 of the 39 seats from Tamil Nadu, and Vijayakanth, who contested as an alliance partner of the BJP, drawing a blank in the hustings.
If in the past, the fight for the spoils was between the AIADMK and the DMK, this time Tamil Nadu is witnessing a six-cornered contest with five CM candidates. The DMK has roped in Congress and some communal and caste outfits which are fringe elements in nature. The AIADMK too has no major allies other than some fringe and caste-based parties. The Progressive Welfare Front, a rainbow alliance, is the new entrant which is being projected as an alternative to both the AIADMK and the DMK. The PWF is led by Vijayakant and has as its constituents the MDMK led by Vaiko, the VCK, a Dalit outfit led by Thol Thirumavalavan, the Tamil Manila Congress led by G.K. Vasan and the Communists.
The Vanniyar-promoted Pattali Makkal Katchi, another Tamil chauvinist outfit, is also in the fray and has projected Anbumani Ramadoss, son of party founder Ramadoss, as its CM candidate. The BJP, the ruling party, ended up as the new untouchables in Tamil Nadu, with no recognised parties showing any willingness to forge an alliance with the Hindutwa party. Then there is Seeman and his gang standing for a separate Tamil Eelam!
The AIADMK and the DMK hope the votes would split as there are six entities contesting for top honours. What are the chances of the AIADMK and DMK making it to the victory podium? Will the PWF emerge as the black horse and Tamil Nadu get its first non- Dravidian party CM in 50 years? Let’s analyse the possibilities and probabilities soon.