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Jaya’s shaky hold on T’Nadu depends largely on Lankan sideshow
After winning the 2016 Tamil Nadu (TN) Assembly election held on May 16 by a whisker, Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa has intensified her aggressive stance against the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL), ostensibly to appease the miniscule Tamil chauvinists within the State. She has already written two letters to Prime Minister Narendra Modi complaining against the “arrest” of fishermen from TN by the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN), and also to pressure the Union Government into taking immediate steps for the release of the “arrested” fishermen’s, as well as their “seized” boats.
While thanking Sri Lanka Northern Provincial Council (NPC) Chief Minister (CM) C.V. Wigneswaran, for his congratulatory message on her re-election as CM, Jayalalithaa has chosen to ignore other congratulatory messages she may have received from the GoSL. Usually, ‘Amma’ (as Jayalalithaa is addressed by her party cadre) issues releases through the TN government’s public relations dept about congratulatory messages she receives from dignitaries.
As she has failed to acknowledge any such messages from the GoSL, it has to be assumed that the reported letter is yet to reach her table. To get any information from the CM’s office about such a letter is near impossible. It is the law of Omerta (Italian for silence), a hallmark of the basic rule of the CM’s office, as well as the AIADMK, the party she controls.
There are some important points to be noted while analysing the Jayalalithaa government’s stance to the TN fishermen’s issue. The election process in two constituencies, of the State’s 234, has been rescinded by the Election Commission of India (ECI), following seizure of large amounts of cash and gifts distributed among the voters. The cash and gifts running to more than Indian Rs 50 million, belonged to the leaders of the AIADMK and the DMK who were candidates from these constituencies. Election to these constituencies would take place as and when the ECI feels the situation is conducive to holding peaceful and fair polls. Till then, Jaylalithaa and Karunanidhi, the main characters of TN politics, have to keep the voters in election mode.
Though Jayalalithaa won the election, it was not a landslide win, in spite of there being no anti-incumbency wave against her government. She won by a reduced majority, and it will be difficult for her to hold on to the 130 members of the AIADMK legislature party. In a House of 234 members, Jayalalithaa has the support of only 134 members while the DMK-led opposition has an impressive array of 98 members. In the previous Assembly, the AIADMK had 150 members. The margin of victory of the AIADMK has come down drastically. Jayalalithaa herself, who won a June 2015 assembly by-poll with a brutal majority of 150,000 votes, had to be content this time with a majority of 39,500 votes, in spite of intensive campaigning by party workers. Many of her cabinet ministers fell by the wayside.
All is not well within the AIADMK camp. The Disproportionate Asset case against Jayalalithaa, filed by senior BJP leader Dr Subramanian Swamy, is in the final stages of hearing in the Supreme Court. The verdict in this case is expected before August 2016, and it is going to be crucial for Jayalalithaa, as well as her party. The lady is also not in the best of health, if whispers emanating from within the AIADMK itself is any indication. Jayalalithaa’s swearing-in ceremony itself was self-explanatory. The CM-designate looked very tired and seen walking very slowly. The TN media is afraid to write anything about Jayalalithaa’s health, as all those who ventured to write or comment about it are facing defamatory cases in Chennai courts.
Jayalalithaa began her second term as CM in style, by writing to PM Modi, asking him to stop the GoSL from constructing the St Antony’s Church at Katchatheevu islet. On Friday, she wrote another letter to the PM asking him not to treat the 1974 and 1976 agreements on International Maritime Boundary Line IMBL) with Sri Lanka as a settled question, as she herself has challenged the accord in the Supreme Court. The government of India has made it clear, time and again, that Katchatheevu is a settled issue, with no possibility of re-opening an agreement signed between two sovereign nations.
Though the TN government makes a hue and cry over the “arrest” of fishermen from the State, by the SLN, it may be noted that, neither the Indian Navy nor its Coastguard has issued any releases or communiques on the issue. The Coastguard stance has been made clear by the officers who supervise the border with Sri Lanka, saying, “At no point of time, has the SLN trespassed the Indian side of the IMBL. Our responsibility is to provide security to the TN fishermen fishing on the Indian side of the IMBL.”
The forthcoming session of the TN legislative assembly will see unanimous resolutions being adopted, condemning the “SLN” for their continued “harassment” of the TN fishermen who fish in their “traditional waters”. The AIADMK, the DMK and the rest of the Tamil political parties agree only on one issue; in condemning the GoSL on issues ranging from TN fishermen and the so called Tamil ethnic issue in Sri Lanka. These political parties know well that the issues are harmless, dull, drab and dead.