Sunday Times 2
UK leaves, who stays?
The last few days of June 2016, perhaps signalled a new page in the history of Europe, whose fallout generally, could affect the whole world which was gradually becoming globalised. Much had been written on this phenomenon of Britain exiting the European Union, from varied points of view. Sri Lanka too was disturbed politically, that even before the referendum a few legislators were sent to Britain to woo the Sri Lankan-British voters to vote ‘to remain’. The results, on June 23rd, however, marked a margin ‘to exit’, leading to a declaration by Prime Minister David Cameron ‘to resign’. More than 33 million UK citizens voted, 72% of the eligible voters, of whom 51.9%, voted to leave, while 48.1% voted to remain.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at 10 Downing Street, in central London. REUTERS/Paul Hackett
Member of Parliament young leader Jo Cox sacrificed her life for a cause she stood for, to remain in the Union just a week before. Her assailant Thomas Mair had no regrets, he said in court that he stands for death to traitors, and freedom for Britain. Even in her district, after her tragic death, the vote was for leaving the Union. The majority of voters who were over 45 years of age voted to exit, while young ones under 35 had voted to remain. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s efforts at ‘remaining’ were fruitless. The young generation was looking out for a better day in Europe, while the elder generation was tired of the regulatory life under the European Union. A saga of rudderlessness is unfolding in Britain, while Europe too is debating its future together. German Chancellor Angela Merkel on a positive note, told German Bundestag on June 28th that the European Union is strong enough to cope with the departure of Britain, while some like Marine Le Pen, France’s right wing National Front Leader said that within ten years, the European Union will be deconstructed. The Hungarian Minister of Justice has said that European integration is a false illusion, and there are noises to follow Britain in the ‘Exit’.
Some of the European Union members were quick to state that Britain should make-up its mind so that the constitutional process to exit is put ‘on train’. Meanwhile in Britain there are groups asking for a fresh vote, while the Scottish have voiced their concern on their remaining in the United Kingdom after a referendum voted to remain, not many moons ago. The Scottish majority are said to be pro-EU, and they feel they will be doubly isolated from a greater reunion of Europe when Brexit takes place. Northern Ireland too has expressed similar sentiments. In this backdrop, the United Kingdom of Great Britain is facing a difficult time in holding the Union together. In Germany, there are sections who say that this referendum should never have been thought of by Premier Cameron, except, as a gamble for his stability in power, in case the vote was for remaining. The fall-out in Europe is that some members of the European Union have voiced their desire to break away from the Union. A fuller understanding of the factors leading to the present quagmire may need a look back at the Union’s formation.
Formation
The European Economic Commission, was the initiator of the process with the Benelux countries, Germany, France, and Italy in 1957.The rebuilding of Europe devastated, and destroyed after two blood-soaked world wars, was an urgent need felt world over, and more by the leaders of Europe. The preservation of peace, maintaining security, development of economies, social structures, and physical building of lost grandeur were undertaken and was fast tracked. The Marshall Plan for economic and physical rebuilding was undertaken all over Europe. The varied treaties were signed to protect security like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. For resurrecting the lost economies based on industries, treaties were signed to set up the European Coal and Steel Community. One of the first leaders to call for an European Integration was the British Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill as far back as 1945, after the war. With other reconstruction plans the first plan for such integration was by Schumann in 1951. Next was born the European Atomic Energy Commission (EAEC). Treaties for union in these areas were signed in Paris (1951), and by the Treaty of Rome (1958).Merging the European Coal and Steel Community, and the European Commission, the European Economic Commission was born with membership of the above six countries. In 1965 with the Brussels Treaty, the Coal Community, and the Atomic Commission, were merged, and this commission became the Community and Council; other European Countries in the west joined the Council, as it developed functionally and attempted an integration of all Europeans to a single entity. It also should be remembered that in the cold war era the eastern bloc of Europe was also forming their own security organizations the Warsaw Pact, and the Economic Union of East Europe, ‘Comecon’. It was therefore, a challenge for West Europeans to strengthen their Institutions. The EEC and later EU had aims of developing defence capabilities, creating non-tariff areas, visa free travel, one single market, a free trade area and creating one community. By 1993, with the Maastricht Treaty, EEC became the European Union, and the EEC was renamed as European Commission headquartered in Brussels. By 1994, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe was aiming at faster integration and the membership had increased to fifteen. By 2012 the membership had gone up to 28.
The European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 for ‘continued advancement of peace, and reconciliation and democracy and human rights in Europe’.
The other scenario, was the opting out of Britain from European developments until 1973. The factors that led to it were diverse. Their empire mentality, the far-flung markets all over the world including the Commonwealth countries, the non-acceptability of a second tier leadership, and non-adherence to the co-supremacy of Brussels Institutions were reasons for the late membership of Britain in the Union. Britain applied for membership only in 1961, but General de Gaulle, the French President vetoed British Application, and they had to wait until de Gaulle was out of the scene, and it was only in 1973, under Edward Heath as Prime Minister of Britain that they were admitted. Britain had a referendum on EEC accession in 1975 and at that referendum 67% of the voters supported it as the British saw the strides of advancement of their counterparts when it was experiencing an economic recession and having double digit inflation. Still, the labour Party led by Tony Benn, and Michael Foot agitated for Britain to exit in the 1980s. In fact this was one reason for the break-up of the Labour Party and formation of the Social Democratic Party. Britain had not gained much benefit from the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Prime Minister Margret Thatcher had a long running battle with the EC. Finally Margret Thatcher had to tell Jacques Delors, the EC chief ‘Give us our money back’. The British had a love-hate relationship with the European Union from its formation. In fact in 1992, Britain withdrew from the European Monetary Union, which was the precursor for the single currency, of 1999. In 1992, however, John Major the then Prime Minister signed the Maastricht Treaty, acceding to new links of the European Union. Another development was on June 14, 1985, when Europe signed the Schengen Treaty. Britian opted out of the Agreement to lift Visa Restrictions in Europe for member countries. On questions of monetary union and immigration Britain had her reservations reflecting the isolationist policies of the nation. The British charge that the Structures of European Integration have undue influence on domestic policies. They say that even on Budget making they have to obtain clearance from the bureaucrats in Brussels. Therefore they feel that it is a ‘Super Structure’ too heavy to carry.
Institutions
This leads briefly to the Institutions of the Union. They are the, Council of Ministers whose president rotates bi-annually. The Heads of State meet to make vital decisions on major issues.
The Secretariat has a large number bureaucrats who help the Council of Ministers to take decisions. The European Commission is the executive organ of the Union. This composes of one commissioner from each member state. The bigger countries have two commissioners representing them. There are 23 directorates assisting the commissioners in the decision making process, looking after subjects under them.
Then there is the European Parliament based in Strasbourg France, which is composed of 751 members elected from the member countries. They also meet in committee in Brussels, and the Secretariat in Luxembourg City. They legislate on subjects devolved to the EU. They have no jurisdiction over Parliaments of respective member states.
European Court of Justice has 13 Judges selected from member states and six Advocates General. They adjudicate on intergovernmental issues referred to them.
In addition there are funds created to help member states, like the European Social Fund, and European Regional Development Fund, in their development, sectors. The Financial sector has established the European Investment Bank, which finances member nations’ projects.
It is generally accepted that these institutions do not impose themselves on similar institutions in member states. However, there had been cases of overlapping which irritate leaders of member nations. Britain is one nation which has found fault with the EU most often, which perhaps led to Brexit.
What next is the question. A layman like me would not know the answer. As I write this today on the 12th, it is reported that the immediate fall-out is the resignation of David Cameron from the British Premiership. The Home Secretary is to succeed him, Madame Theresa May. Tomorrow she is to call on Her Majesty the Queen. Several names of possible successors were put forward, like Andrea Leadsom, and Liam Fox, and Stephen Crabb but Theresa May emerged as the choice of the Conservatives and selectors, getting 165 votes, and Leadsom 66 votes. It appears that there had not been much consultations as it was rather urgent. It is further reported that ‘Exit’ from the EU itself takes a long time, a two year period.
The Labour Party too is in search of the next leader and it is thought that Angela Eagle is to succeed Jeremy Corbyn. Some observers draw a parallel to the time when the Iron Lady, Margret Thatcher took over reins in 1979 and remained till 1990. Popular contention is that there is no return to EU and Exit has to go through, making amends for the possible economic and political fall-out. Britain would now lay more stress on Commonwealth partners and China in her trade links. Perhaps Sri Lanka has to pick the clues of these changes in the period ahead.
As for the European Union, already the leadership is in China discussing greater reciprocal market access, and investments, and of course political links. EU Council President, Donald Tusk, and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Junker will meet President Xi Jingping and Premier Li Keqiang, for a two-day summit. Among more urgent matters will be the negotiation on a Comprehensive Investment Agreement, according to EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström, on which discussions started in January 2014. The EU is also looking out of the prism to strengthen and save the Union from a possible secession by other member States.
There are consultations continuing among EU administrators, and leaders of European States to face possible defections. Perhaps they are also thinking of reducing the top-heavy and unwieldy administration to bridge over the present impasse.
Sri Lanka should closely study the trends, unfolding through Sri Lanka representations in Europe and elsewhere, like China and India and Japan, to name a few, and also through the experts in the allied fields, in order to place the strategies intelligently, to reap the benefits from an adverse situation.
(The writer was an Ambassador for Sri Lanka and a Diplomat in the Sri Lanka High Commission in London.)