Bleak outlook for what was once the ‘granary of the East’
File picture of drought affected paddy lands
Once upon a time Sri Lanka was the granary of the East. But those days are long gone by decried Prof. Buddhi Marambe thanks to inept policy decisions combined with the vagaries of nature – leaving the country with enough rice to feed its people only until the middle of this year.
Usually any story which begins with a ‘Once upon a time’ has a fairytale ending. But this was not the case at a Colombo seminar this week on the ‘Future of Agriculture’ where a group of experts voiced fears that the food security of this country was under grave threat unless the decision-makers pulled up their socks.
“We were always proud to say we were the granary of the East in ancient times but sadly current statistics don’t paint a rosy picture,” lamented Prof. Marambe, head of the Department of Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture at the University of Peradeniya.
In an hour-long presentation at the seminar organised by the Marga Institute and the Gamani Corea Foundation, he mainly looked at the country’s staple rice and outlined the reasons for the decline – man-made and nature’s whims.
Focusing his talk on poor policy changes and climate change, Prof. Marambe believed both aspects were ‘unpredictable and human-induced’, and together had a detrimental effect.
“The world population will increase to 10 billion by 2050. Here in Sri Lanka, we need to increase our food production by 50 per cent (from current levels) to feed our population in 2030. But it is a Herculean task with limited land and water resources.”
Hotter every year
Prof. Marambe likened global warming to the world’s fastest man, Jamaican Usain Bolt who broke the 100 metres record at every Olympic Games he ran in.
“Every year since 2000 has been hotter than the previous year breaking the record. Global warming has resulted in an increase in droughts and floods.  We have experienced both recently where there is no rain when it is needed and more rain when not needed.
“Last year we experienced a very serious drought after 40 years. It does not mean it is going to repeat in 2017 and we should not panic. We have four rainfall seasons, the first inter-monsoon (early in the year) failed last year, then the South-West monsoon failed, both affecting the Yala season. To make matters worse the second inter-monsoon failed and that was followed with the North-East monsoon being delayed affecting the Maha season.
“There was no rain for 11 months last year. In May we had a heavy downpour where we experienced more than 300 mm of rain continuously for three days resulting in 96 people dead and damage worth US$570 million. We pray for rain, but when there is heavy rainfall that is much more dangerous,” he added.
The drought had a large impact with only one-third of the land extent during the Maha season being cultivated. “The Department of Agriculture says we have enough requirements of rice to feed the nation until mid-2017, but after that what?
“What about next season. Even if we have good rainfall next season, do we have adequate seed paddy for the next cultivation season? It is a serious problem, especially as we only cultivated one-third of the land. We have to take judicious policy decisions or this country will be heading for trouble,” Prof. Marambe urged.
But he was less than enthused about politicians making the correct decisions based on two recent examples of policy changes with regard to fertiliser and pesticides.
The contentious fertiliser subsidy, in place since 1962, was changed last year to a cash subsidy a move which Prof. Marambe likened to ‘missing the bus’ because it didn’t address the real issue which was the misuse of fertiliser.
“All recent increases in yield and production (of rice) are due to technology (improved fertilisers among them). If we are going to kick out technology overnight then the system will fail. You cannot have paradigm shifts overnight. This is the unfortunate problem where changes in policy are made without consulting people who know about the subject.
“The same thing happened with pesticide. There was a ban imposed on pesticide but after that there was a cry for an alternate cost-effective method for weed control. Why kick out the time-tested method we had without proper monitoring?
“The real issue was the misuse of pesticides. The problem we have always had is to sift truth from non-truth, to draw a line. Truth is never allowed to stand on its feet in this country,” pointed out Prof. Marambe cleverly using a slide of a cartoon of Gulliver being staked down by the Lilliputians (depicted as red-scarfed politicians).
He called on the government to ‘think a 100 times before taking a decision’ pointing to scare-tactics (a toxin-free product) which said Sri Lanka was the highest user of fertiliser in the region and Asia when a World Bank study showed that leading rice producers like Thailand, Malaysia, India, Bangladesh were all ahead.
“The same thing happened with glyphosate (an herbicide). People said this was used heavily in paddy but the problem was it was used on tea, maize and wet zone paddy. Look at the level of misinformation fed to policy-makers.
People do not understand the ground level situation in Sri Lanka and they advise people to make erroneous decisions which are irreversible and significantly damage our economy and our agriculture,” Prof. Marambe cited.
He called on the decision-makers to be impartial and discerning in trying to sift through the truth and non-truth, to put faith in scientific methods (and not divine) and modern technology.
“Last month the President planted the first plant of a drought resistant variety of team which was developed after 25 years of research by the TRI (Tea Research Institute). Sri Lanka scientists are working to address climate change.”
The National Adaptation Plan recently released was welcomed by Prof. Marambe who also called for; a need to develop climate resilient planting material (seeds are the most important for any crop), a move to animal integrated farming systems which is considered as climate resilient; self-sufficiency in the main staple rice with buffer stocks, the cultivation of abandoned paddy land especially in the wet zone, crop diversification and further improved land productivity.
“We also need to prioritise investment in agriculture with the private sector playing a key role. Without the private sector and their intervention, agriculture cannot progress in this country. We need to strengthen entrepreneurial capacities and increase investment in research and development.”
Also addressing the seminar were Dr. Parakrama Waidynatha who spoke on a ‘Toxin-Free Nation’, Prof. Jeevika Weerahera who looked at whether the rice sector in the country was at a crossroads and Rizvi Zaheed, executive director and head of the Hayleys agriculture sector who touched on the topic of sustainable commercial agriculture. Economist Dr. Nimal Sanderatne chaired the seminar.
Amar Gunatilleke of Marga Institute called on the experts to ‘make a noise so that there is some sort of a change in the status quo’. He added: “We need to carry on these seminars and highlight the issues facing our country.”
There were no decision-makers at the seminar. Mr. Gunatilleke, said tongue-in-cheek: “We invited politicians but all wanted to give speeches”.
A pity, for to make Sri Lanka the granary of the East once again, they have to be included in any future discussion. Then perhaps, this ‘Once upon a time’ story could have a happy ending.