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Tamil Nadu by-poll crucial for AIADMK
CHENNAI: The by-poll on Dec.21 at the RK Nagar assembly constituency, a Chennai suburb, is being watched with keen interest by leaders of all political parties in the country. The poll was necessitated by the Dec.5, 2016, demise of former Chief Minister (CM) and AIADMK General Secretary J. Jayalalithaa who represented this constituency in the Tamil Nadu (TN) Legislative Assembly.
Why the result of the RK Nagar constituency is important is because of the wafer-thin majority enjoyed by the ruling AIADMK in the Legislature. The TN assembly has a total strength of 234, which means the ruling outfit should have 118 seats in the House. As of Saturday, the effective strength of the House is 232, due to the vacancies caused by the demise of Jayalalithaa and the continued absence of the 95-year-old DMK President M. Karunanidhi. The DMK patriarch is ailing, which prevents him from making it to the House.
The DMK-led Opposition has 98 members. The AIADMK has seen many splits and mergers following Jayalalithaa’s death. The faction headed by CM Edappadi Palaniswamy has 111 members, while 18 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) owing allegiance to V.K. Sasikala, the jailed aide of former CM Jayalalithaa, have declared their opposition to the continuation of Palaniswamy as CM. If the 18 MLAs join hands with the DMK, the Palaniswamy government would fall.
T.T.V. Dinakaran, a nephew of Sasikala, is leading the faction owing allegiance to her, because of her incarceration as a convict in the Disproportionate Asset case. She will be in jail till 2021 and would not be able to contest elections till 2027, because of Supreme Court restrictions preventing convicted persons from entering Legislative bodies. Dinakaran is contesting the election in the hope of winning and becoming the CM, by ousting Palaniswamy.
RK Nagar constituency is witnessing a triangular contest with the AIADMK, DMK and the Sasikala faction fighting for the seat. The DMK is supported by all other Opposition parties including the Tamil chauvinistic groups. The Congress, the Communists, the VCK, an outfit representing the lower caste population, the Muslim outfits and the Dravida Kazhakam which stands for a separate Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka, are all supporting the DMK candidate. The DMK has floated Tamil Eelam Solidarity Organisation (TESO), an umbrella outfit to unify the supporters of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, which is quite active in TN’s various spheres, under different garbs.
The by-poll is being seen as a prelude to the Rainbow Alliance being planned by the DMK for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. It has launched a blitzkrieg against the ruling BJP at the centre, citing the Hindutwa parties obsession with Hindi language. This has made all Tamil chauvinistic groups to fall in line and support the DMK candidate.
The 2004 election had seen an alliance like this which resulted in the obliteration of the AIADMK. The DMK-led alliance won all the 39 parliamentary constituencies in that election. M.K. Stalin, younger son of Karunanidhi, who has been anointed as the party’s working president, much to the resentment of many senior leaders, hopes to repeat the victory by forging a Grand Alliance, similar to the one witnessed in the 2004 parliamentary election. What is of concern to Stalin is that, the DMK has been out of power in TN and from the corridors of power in the Centre, since 2011.
Stalin is willing to join any dispensation in TN to unseat the AIADMK government. The hearsay is that he is suffering from some serious ailment and time is running out for him. His frequent trips to London and Singapore for medical treatment should be seen in this backdrop. But, irrespective of the differences the RK Nagar election could make in TN’s political landscape, this is a test for the pro-Eeelam outfits operating out of TN. A win for the DMK will see these fringe elements going overboard to force the Centre to toe a pro-Eelam line in its dealings with Sri Lanka. But senior RSS and BJP leaders rule out the possibility of the present government making any changes in its policy viz-a-viz Tamil Eelam.
“We are totally against any drastic changes in the Constitution of Sri Lanka, which offers autonomy to the Northern and Eastern Provinces,” said a senior RSS functionary. The person did not want to be identified, lest he is seen as interfering in Sri Lanka’s internal issues.
A leading political commentator and author, who does not hide her support to the Narendra Modi government, said more autonomy means more problems and demand for secession. “Sri Lanka should see for itself the agonies faced by the Indian Government in Kashmir and the North East of India, where secessionist forces are unleashing terrorist attacks on an hourly basis, demanding secession,” she said.
The AIADMK dispensation in Chennai may speak of more autonomy to the Tamil provinces, but that is for political convenience. The legal notice served on the Indian Government by Japanese automobile major Nissan Motors, demanding US$ 777 million, which was promised by the TN Government in 2008, in lieu of the company setting up a manufacturing plant in the State, is an ideal proof of the damage which could be caused by increased levels of autonomy.