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These are trying times for Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. While there are growing calls for meaningful reforms within the United National Party (UNP), which he has led since 1994, his political opponents are eager to see the back of him, and are counting on winning a ‘No-Confidence’ motion against him, which would force him out of office.

On Wednesday (21), the Joint Opposition (JO) Group in Parliament, handed in the ‘No-Confidence’ motion to Speaker Karu Jayasuriya. The motion was signed by 51 MPs including 4 from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), namely State Minister of Lands T.B. Ekanayake, Public Management & Administration Deputy Minister Susantha Punchinilame, Ports & Shipping Deputy Minister Nishantha Muthuhettigama and MP Cader Masthan. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa who accompanied the JO MPs to hand over the motion to the Speaker, did not sign the motion, saying he will support it. The motion has 14 charges levelled against the Premier, nearly all linked to the Central Bank Bond scam.

The allegations against the Premier are linked to his decisions to place the Central Bank under his purview, after the Government came into power in August 2015, appointing Arjuna Mahendran as Central Bank Governor, appointing a committee comprising his friends to exonerate those responsible for the Bond scam, misleading Parliament by giving false statements on the Bond issue and violating financial regulations. Two other allegations not linked to the Bond scam, are his failure to arrest the rising cost of living and his failure to act promptly, to contain the recent communal violence, in his capacity as Minister of Law & Order.

The motion will be taken up for debate on April 4, with a marathon 12-hour sitting of Parliament scheduled for the day, at the end of which, a vote will be taken .The JVP, which has 6 members in the 225 member Legislature, said its members would vote in favour of the motion, while the Tamil National Alliance, which has 16 MPs, is yet to announce its position with regard to the motion.

Meanwhile, not to be outdone by the political maneuverings of the JO group, more than 80 UNP MPs signed a letter expressing their confidence in Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The UNP won 106 seats at the 2015 General Elections and it’s likely, that a majority of the UNPers would back the Premier.

The United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which holds 95 seats in the Legislature, is split between the JO group, which has the blessings of former President Rajapaksa, while the others back President Maithripala Sirisena.

Given the rumblings within the Unity Government and calls for the Premier to step down, soon after both the UNP as well as the Sirisena faction of the SLFP, suffered humiliating defeats, which way the UPFA-SLFP would swing in the crucial ‘No-Confidence’ motion vote is not clear.

For now, the Premier can take comfort from the fact that, he is better placed to get sufficient votes to defeat the Motion. But, given the nature of politics in this country and the political horse trading that’s all too common, whether Ranil Wickremesinghe will still be Prime Minister on April 5, will depend on to what extent he will be able to convince the majority of lawmakers, to place their confidence in him.