Sri Lanka to lose $50 billion of GDP by 2050 due to climate change
While the whole world is combating the implications of climate change, South Asia is becoming highly vulnerable, according to a recent report by the World Bank on “South Asia’s Hotspots; The impact of temperature and precipitation changes on living standards.”
The report reveals that Sri Lanka’s GDP per capita income will drop by US$50 billion by 2050, if measures are not taken to mitigate the climate change.
World Bank Lead Economist, Muthukumara Mani presented the report at an event held at the Movenpick Hotel in Colombo recently. The report revealed that under the carbon-intensive scenario in 2050 there will be a decline of 7.7 per cent of Sri Lanka’s GDP per capita.
South Asia is one of world’s poorest regions, the report says while the region’s climate is highly diverse with unambiguous temperature increases. Changes in characteristics of extreme events, sea level rise and changes in temperature and precipitation are three manifestations of climate change. The report further explains that temperatures are projected to increase but monsoon precipitation projections are uncertain.
Climate change impacts living standards through health, agriculture, migration and productivity. Most countries in South Asia will experience decline in living standards under the carbon intensive and carbon sensitive scenarios. Northern and Northwestern Provinces of Sri Lanka will be most impacted, the report states.
Under the vulnerable areas and households, the hotspot districts will have less road density, poorer access to markets and water stressed. The households in hotspots are predominantly in agriculture and no access to electricity in some cases. Hotspot districts are not always rural, agricultural and women-headed households are more resilient.
Munasinghe Institute of Development Founder and Chairman, Mohan Munasinghe at the event mentioned that Sri Lanka must not only look at climate change but sustainable development. Adaptation and mitigation are the key responses by humans to climate change, he added while stressing that adaptation benefits are much greater than costs to mitigate the climate change.
Sri Lanka is facing three degrees Celsius rise in temperature, Prof. Munasinghe noted while elaborating that climate change will worsen all sectors of industries in Sri Lanka. “One in every nine people is hungry in Sri Lanka while by 2030 we will need two planets to live sustainably,” he noted.
World Bank Programme Leader, Andrew Goodland pointed out that climate change and weather patterns have one thing in common. It only affects the lives of the poorest in the country. It requires commitment and funding from all partners, increased knowledge and understanding of risks and impacts to identify appropriate responses.
“Our social protection team is supporting the Government’s efforts to protect the poor and the vulnerable from impacts of disasters. We are also working with government to support improved disaster risk financing, including insurance,” he added.