Editorial

So, Sri Lankareplaced the tourist promotion slogan ‘Land Like No Other’ this week. Nothing should surprise anyone in Sri Lanka’s politics, but late Friday evening’s melodramatic happenings at the President’s House must rank high on the ratings. Sri Lanka now has one President and two Prime Ministers.

Both President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe may have had a sense of déjà vuon Friday. This was second time around, in different ways for both. The President, then General Secretary of his party, surprised the nation the first time in end 2014 by deserting the ship and successfully challenging the incumbent President with UNP votes. It was a case of the Opposition pulling a rabbit out of the hat then – and he did it again. As for the Prime Minister, his five-year mandate was cut short in 2004 by the premature dissolution of Parliament, and it happened again.

The signs were ominous in the build-up to Friday. Questions were being asked in various quarters if the 2015 National Unity Government could carry on for another year and a half. Those who read the Sunday Times Political Editor’s story on the front page last week might have had an inkling of what was going to happen. “His immediate priority, according to sources, close to the presidency, is to replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, with whom many irreconcilable differences have arisen”, the news item said.

Serious differences came into the open when the President asked the Prime Minister to resign in the immediate aftermath of the local government elections where both coalition partners received a drubbing, the President’s SLFP far worse than the Prime Minister’s UNP. All the setbacks of the Government were put at the PM’s doorstep. The PM quoted the 19th Amendment (19A) to stop the President from removing him. Then came the vote of no-confidence against the PM. The Joint Opposition was certain of winning it ‘as day follows night’, but the PM won with a thumping majority. The President distanced himself with the conspiracy some of his party men were engaged in.

More recently, everything the UNP proposed, the President began to oppose. Political cartoonists had a field day mocking the serious business of governance. One cartoon depicted the PM as director of a film saying “roll, roll” and the President as producer saying “cut, cut”. Just last week a major issue blew up with the PM proposing the Colombo port’s East Container Terminal be given partly to India, and the President opposing it. Then, the President wanting the state bank heads removed and the UNP ignoring the instructions.

Secret talks between President Sirisena and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa to form a caretaker government (the Sunday Times, October 7) were hotly denied by some, but not by the two leaders. Some UNP ministers dismissed a caretaker government as“wish fulthinking”.Nobody really noticed why the Joint Opposition’s front runner for the 2020 Presidential elections had not renounced his US citizenship yet. Wasn’t it because Plan B was afoot?

The President has now forced the UNP to accept a fait accompli situation with the swearing-in of a new Prime Minister. But the sitting Prime Minister says the move is unconstitutional and refuses to comply saying it’s a constitutional coup. All arguments will revolve around Articles 42, 46 and 48 of the Constitution which deal with the removal of the PM in terms of the 19A. There are discrepancies in the English and Sinhala text to add to the confusion, with the Sinhala text prevailing in interpretation.

There are four ways the UNP can challenge the President’s action: Taking to the streets; challenging the move before the Supreme Court which sits as the Constitutional Court; or moving an impeachment motion against the President in Parliament with 113 signatures with that of the Speaker’s approval, and proving its majority in Parliament. It seems the UNP will consider only the last two options.

During the secret discussions recently between the two one-time SLFP colleagues turned bête noiresturned partners once again, Mr. Rajapaksa was told, it is learnt, that under the 19A, the PM can call the shots much more than before. Evidently Friday’s move to oust the sitting PM proves otherwise. The Executive President can still call some shots, and he will remain Head of Government.

Those who gave legal advice for the Presidential move argue that the 2015 National Unity Government is now defunct. With it, 19A is inoperative in so far as the insulation of the PM and the Cabinet is concerned. It is a new Government now in force, they argue.

The removal of the PM was done under Article 42 (4) of the Constitution wherein the President can remove the PM if in his “opinion” any other MP is most likely to command the majority of Parliament. This “opinion”, constitutionally speaking, cannot be his private view or based on political expediency. It ought to be a reasonable and justifiable opinion. One would have expected him to have obtained some element of proof that the new PM has the required numbers in Parliament to command the majority of the House. A constitutional hiatus has been precipitated in the meantime with the UNP-led UNF coalition claiming to have the majority in the House and arguing strenuously that the 2015 people’s mandate be respected by the President.

The cat is out of the bag with the prorogation of Parliament yesterday till November 16. It clearly means the President has been advised to create a fait accompli situation which gives the new PM, Mahinda Rajapaksa, bargaining power with his new office to negotiate with MPs, particularly UNP MPs, to cross over and come up with the numbers required.  Meanwhile, the jockeying for powerful posts in the MS/MR Government vis-a-vis the RW Government that will no doubt see confusion worse confounded come Monday among officials in the state apparatus unsure if they should vacate their posts to make way for the new appointees, or to stay put.

Some political analysts ask why Mr. Rajapaksa, who was sitting pretty with popular support, at least in the south, wished to take on the headaches of this Government such as the cost of living and the depreciation of the Rupee without waiting for the scheduled elections later next year. Particularly so, by joining hands with someone who had politically stabbed him in the back once. That there are no permanent friends, or enemies in politics is well known, but what the deciding factor was, is up for conjecture.

Some might say internal pressure in finding a Presidential candidate for 2020was one reason. Cases of corruption and abuse of power against his family and political associates now maturing in the courts may be another.

Many of his predecessors – Sirima Bandaranaike (extending Parliament from 1975-77), J.R. Jayewardene (1982 Referendum) and Chandrika Kumaratunga (dissolving Parliament in 2004) have made a mockery of election mandates. Now, President Sirisena is following their example. Has the country gone from the frying pan into the fire?