Suspense is killing (me)
View(s):It was an expression of outrage by Seeni Bola, my retired banker friend that formed the basis of today’s discussion.
In an early morning call on a gloomy Thursday (it had been raining cats and dogs all week adding to the depressed state of the country), he sought to discuss the crisis in the country and the “Bahubootha viyavasthava (ridiculous Constitution)”.
At that time, Kussi Amma Sera and her friends were in the kitchen struggling for the second week in succession to come up with some decent curries, without much success.
“I say, we have been made the laughing stock of the world,” said Seeni Bola, so named by friends after he once boasted that other banks were handling ‘seeni bola’ deposits compared to his bank, adding: “This ‘little by little’ crossovers are killing progress in the country.” He was using a phrase explained by fellow columnist Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne last week to describe the pittance in foreign investment and exports in Sri Lanka compared to the economies of Vietnam and Bangladesh.
“So are you saying the President doesn’t have a right to do what he has been doing over the past two weeks?” I asked.
Ignoring that question, he said: “Isn’t this also a bad time for negative publicity given that Sri Lanka has begun its long-awaited tourism promotion campaign with the tagline ‘So Sri Lanka’?” He was alluding to reports that there have been cancellations from foreign holidaymakers fearing the present crisis could spill onto the streets.
So far the crisis has stayed within the confines of Temple Trees, rallies and demonstrations by all affected parties, but good governance activists on Thursday said they feared the crisis could turn to bloodshed if not nipped in the bud and Parliament being asked to adjudicate on which group has the largest majority in the House.
In the meantime, Seeni Bola was going on and on, on what he called a “grave Constitutional crisis”, once again partly borrowing a phrase from the Sri Lanka Institute of Directors, a powerful group of directors representing a cross section of Sri Lanka’s business elite, which on Wednesday said they were “gravely concerned” by the current Constitutional impasse.
In some ways, the crisis is somewhat similar to the repercussions of the July 1983 ethnic riots when it took almost a week for the then United National Party (UNP) government to rein in rumour-mongers and killers on the loose. By that time the damage was done, scores killed and properties destroyed. It took 26 years to undo the damage.
This time, the Constitution is being torn to shreds and sadly, the Supreme Court has not been called to decide which version is correct; whether the President had the right (as per the Constitution) to sack the Prime Minister when he had not resigned or not!
While the business community has watched in dismay – any political or constitutional crisis is bad for business — the worst affected has been the public service and its institutions where work has come to a standstill.
With no proper Cabinet in place for two weeks – positions being given by the President ‘little by little’ to keep places free for crossovers instead of the usual one-shot appointment of a Cabinet of Ministers — officials are not sure who their “boss” is. Some secretaries to ministries have been changed to reflect the control of the former joint opposition and the President’s party (SLFP) and a few heads of departments, particularly in state-owned media institutions have been removed. But most appointees, particularly in state corporations and institutions, including banks, remain as appointees of the former UNP-led regime.
Several development projects are also on hold as officials await November 14 to decide who is in charge; not that this date might declare a victor since the Mahinda Rajapaksa-led administration has decreed that no parliamentary vote, to decide which party has a majority, would happen on that date.
If this is the case and the uncertainty as to who is in charge continues, it would lead to further chaos and more travel warnings from countries which would impact on tourism, going into the most profitable period in the year for hotels – the European winter season.
The Colombo bourse has been on a rollercoaster ride amidst a depreciating rupee and continuing outflow of foreign funds — over many months now due to US interest rates making it more beneficial to park these funds in the US. The stock market picked up a bit on positive sentiment in the early days of the Constitutional crisis but after that has seen downward trends. Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy warned that the country’s debt situation needed to be addressed urgently, saying people are equally responsible for managing debt. “People should elect MPs who are cautious enough to handle financial matters as their representatives,” he was quoted as saying in one news report.
Concerns raised by western governments while China and India have been more mellow in comments on the crisis have seen foreign investors take a back seat to wait for clearer signals – meaning long-term solutions to the crisis and a calm environment for investments and decision-making. That doesn’t seem to be happening with the situation set to worsen if Parliament on Wednesday, November 14 doesn’t decide who commands the majority in Parliament.
Parliament officials and those handling security would be hard pressed to keep firebrand MPs from all sides from creating chaos in the legislature, either way if a vote is taken or not.
While the solution in a divided country lies probably in calling an early parliamentary election, that option is not there since elections can be called only after a government has completed 4½ years in office, though some might take a contrary view.
The country is going down a dangerous path. Ranil has said he was willing to work with Maithripala once again and if this happens the latter would be regarded as the leader who worked with his sworn enemies, not once but twice. Either way, the country has to get back to work. As of now, the signs are not encouraging; not encouraging at all.
At the end of the day, Kussi Amma Sera continued to grapple with the kitchen crisis: The polos curry had too much salt and the mutton curry was bland and tasteless. She was simply not getting it right. Just like the state of affairs in the country.