Challenges to Sri Lanka in the climate change discourse
The latest report by an international panel of scientists has highlighted that everyone on this earth can do something to help the world to avoid or change the anticipated catastrophic climate change due to human activity. We humans have created this situation and we have to contribute towards the restoration of the environment for future generations. The message is very clear, it is not just governments or businesses but each and every individual on earth has to pay their debt.
A drought- affected rice field in Sri Lanka which will be a common occurrence in the future.
People in our part of the world will be not aware of the danger zone that we are entering into with the majority having no interest to understand the gravity of such global/national issues. They always believe that someone will do the needful to sort it and it is not you and me. Es- pecially, we Sri Lankans have missed the bus on numerous occasions in development goals in the past. Similarly, in this global warming aspect too, we will miss the life-saving opportunities, if we do not listen and activate the precautionary measures immediately.
IPCC report
This alarming news was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released a few weeks ago in Incheon, South Korea. Experts emphasise that, ‘Behaviour change and demand side management can significantly reduce emissions’ and keep global warming to just 1.5 per cent degrees centigrade instead of 2 degrees centigrade which is above pre-industrial levels.
The United Nation (UN) has been giving frequent warnings to all stakeholders of the world on ‘Global Warming’ and has initiated and backed this very important report which has taken approximately three years to complete. This gigantic task involved 91 researchers from 40 nations in the first phase to identify in detail the 1.5 degree ‘C’ limit in terms of impact and what it would take to keep temperature rise at that level.
Three years ago in 2015, the Paris agreement called for halting the rise in temperatures to ‘well below 2 degree ‘C’ but to see the possibility of keeping it at 1.5 degree ‘C’. When concluding the Paris conference, the IPCC was requested to prepare a special report on global warming of 1.5 degree ‘C’ by adhering to the latest global science in strategic perspective. The report cites more than 6000 scientific references.
Sri Lanka is not represented in the forum but statistics in our part of the world have been taken into the consideration. In fact India is actively involved in the IPCC.
It is a fact that the entire globe and its people will experience this catastrophe and with the current snail pace activity will accelerate increasing of the temperature beyond 1.5 degrees. When scrutinising the global information on the subject matter, it has been revealed that world leaders have been told that they must take greater action on the climate crisis, following the statistical research information released by the IPCC. We all have a role to play in order to save the planet and give a better climatic condition to future generations. There is no doubt that this catastrophe will affect every nation and every individual whether they are big or small, rich or poor.
The IPCC report has revealed that the safe limit will be to remain below 1.5 per cent degree ‘C’ and in today’s context, it will be an immense challenge. The challenge begins with the attitude of the people, reluctance to understand the seriousness of the situation and when developing strategies/pathways to adopt counter measures and implementation.
Impact of temperature rise to + 1.5 degree of centigrade
Humans – Slower rate of sea level rise will result in small islands and low-lying areas being prepared.
Flora – 8 per cent of plants tipped to lose over half their climatically determined geographic range.
Fauna –
1. Coral reefs decline by 70- 90 per cent.
2. 6 per cent of insects and 4 per cent of vertebrates projected to lose over half their climatically determined geographic range.
3. Annual catch from marine fisheries down by 15 million tonnes.
Geology –
1. Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer once a century.
2. Lower impact, on land, fresh water and coastal ecosystem
Economy: More opportunities in green economy
What has to be done to avoid the rise of tempreture
1. Global net human-caused CO2 emissions need to fall by about 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030, and hit net zero by 2050.
2. Large tracts of land have to be converted to growing trees.
3. Electricity from renewables like solar and wind power will have to jump from 24 per cent to 50 per cent.
4. Ordinary coal plants will have to be wound down or immediately shift to super critical coal plants.
5. Shift to electric vehicles.
Rise of sea levels are eminent
People who live in the coastal regions of Asia may have to forget about their luxury villas at the coastal belt (sea view luxury) and on the right extreme of that is the poorer people living in the vicinity for the purpose of their living (fishing community) too, have to face big time repercussions due to rise of the sea level and coastal flooding.
Asian region leaders, in particular, have to initiate a joint programme (initiative) to save the valuable lives of the people in the region. It is known fact that Asia’s urban population is growing at unprecedented levels and it is 1.75 times faster than the global urban population. Considering these facts, it is sure that we will lose hundreds of millions of people’s homes. With the implementation of appropriate precautionary measures in advance, we will save human lives and their belongings to a great extent. It was identified by the experts, that sea levels could rise to the 1 meter level, effecting coastal and low-lying areas in the region. It is very visible today with Indonesian islands which are facing coastal flooding more frequently and it will accelerate by many-fold.
Coastal low lying areas in Asia are at an increased risk with the rise of sea levels. Experts have identified 19 of the 25 cities which are most threatened by one meter rise of sea-level are in the Asia. This disastrous situation will have serious economic consequences direct to affected countries and world at large. Global flood losses are expected to increase by 10 times from the present towards 2050 according to the studies.
Eventual food shortage
Needless to explain the global economy is interconnected and moving like a spiral chain. This chain of activities in economic terms will get highly disturbed when the region gets affected in a serious manner in whatever form. In this context, climate change will definitely result in a huge rise in food production cost in the region and food processing units will have major difficulties to maintain their respective status quo.
Then agriculture industry will have major drawbacks due to heavy drops in yield of respective crops. A straight forward example is in the production of rice. It was revealed that rice yields could decline by up to 50 per cent in the years to come. Imagine the similar equations to the rest of the crops that humans are consuming at present? Food shortages could increase sharply and in the process increase the number of malnutrition children in the region.
Rest of the human needs
The basic needs of the human beings could be at risk leading to social calamity in respective societies. Climate change will heavily disturb the entire eco system of the globe leading to a shortage of food, water, mass migration to urban cities, increase of diseases, air pollution, heat waves and epidemics such as dengue and malaria. The blue economy will have a major setback due to serious downfall of the fishing harvest and adverse effects on tourism due to marine eco system facing a serious threat.
Impact of temperature rise to + 2 deg of centigrade:
Humans -
1. Exposure to wider risk to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security and growth.
2. Numbers affected by water scarcity to double.
3. 10 million more people exposed to permanent inundation, several hundred million more to climate-related risk and poverty.
4. Malaria and dengue fever set to be more widespread.
5. Issues of migration and lower social cohesion will rise.
Flora
1. Smaller crop yields for corn, rice and wheat. Twice as many corn crops will perish in tropics.
2. 16 per cent of plants tipped to lose over half their climatically determined geographic range.
Fauna
1. Coral reefs, including Great Barrier Reef decline by 99 per cent.
2. More species will be extinct.
3. Polar bears and Seals are in danger.
4. 18 per cent of insects and 8 per cent of vertebrate projected to lose over half their climatically-determined geographic range.
5. Annual catch from marine fisheries down by 3 million tonnes or 50 per cent.
Geology
1. Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer once a decade.
2. 13 per cent of global land area set to undergo transformation of ecosystems from one type to another.
3. High-latitude tundra and boreal forest at risk.
Economy
1. Loss of coastal resources reduces productivity of fisheries and aquaculture.
2. Countries in tropics and southern hemisphere subtropics set to see largest impact on economic growth.
What has to be done to avoid the rise of temperature:
1. More intensive land-use practices needed.
2. Need to restore depleted ecosystems.
3. Change towards less resource-intensive diets.
Is it feasible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
Decarburisation of the Asian economies will be the fundamental principle of mitigating the impact of climate change. It will be a big challenge with highly politicised Asian economies, especially the developing nations to adhere to commitments of the Paris Agreement and IPCC recommendations. It is the fact that, underdeveloped and developing countries cannot afford to invest in highly sophisticated, fully environmental-friendly plants and machinery to fulfill their essential needs. Minimising the air pollution and the greenhouse gas emissions is the practical approach at this moment.
When we look at Sri Lanka, the Government needs to look at how to comply with a possible approach without disturbing the day-to-day life of its population. We are heavily depended on coal power plant for uninterrupted electricity. It is high time that we elevate ourselves to super critical coal power which is a far better option. As a region, we should agree on macro level regional development strategies to mitigate climate change.
Respective governments in the region, consciously adopt policies to include climate change mitigation policies into the mainstream of their respective development goals.
Way forward to face the climate change
My humble suggestion is to give wide publicity to the Paris Agreement and IPCC report in print, electronic and social media in simple language.
People should be fully aware of the danger zone that we are entering into and take the most suitable precautionary measures which will only save their own lives and the future generations. Also, in part of the world there is no education on the subject of climate change and that void has to be filled with immediate effect. The school curricular must have climate change as a special subject. Making children understand the gravity of climate change and growing up with the right attitude will bring an enormous positive approach to resolve or to minimise the anticipated catastrophe.
There is no point having a post mortem of wrongdoings of human beings who have created the disaster due to ignorance, damaging environment, poor attention to protecting the environment and many other things culminating to climate crisis.
The ever rising temperature and rising sea levels cannot be taken lightly anymore. Governments, policy makers, lobby groups and the general public need to wake up and work together for the common goal of combatting global warming. Do not allow our children to suffer in front of our own eyes because we need to ask ourselves ‘who’s at fault’?
Walk the talk
The above facts are stubborn and scary because it is eventually a life and death situation. This is a red notice to people who created it by some mean and given the probable solutions/recommendations as well. It is up to the people to take it or leave it.
Tree planting to combat global warming has become a fashion in Sri Lanka but are the following issues addressed?;
1. How to measure the impact?
2. Are we planting the right tree at the right place?
3. Who will be maintaining the trees?
4. Are we aware that every tree planted needs to be maintained for at least five years?
We have selected the most popular sport in Sri Lanka to fight against global warming. The International Cricket Council (ICC)’s cricket world cup commences in the month of June 2019 and exclusive broadcasting rights have been taken over by Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation (SLRC). We have join hands with the SLRC to carry out a massive systematic tree planting campaign to coincide with the ICC cricket world cup. ICC has 106 cricket playing nations under their banner. The main formats of the game, test cricket, 50 overs and 20 overs are played by the limited number of nations. However, all the cricketers of the first class level to poor villagers who play the game and cricket lovers have a moral duty to plant a tree to pay their debt to the respective nations and world at large.
Why should you do it? Cricket bat and the wickets are made out of wood. The number of trees used for manufacturing cricket bats, wickets and bails is unknown. Neither the game of cricket nor the felling of trees for this purpose would stop and our call is not to stop the popular game. We need to use this ICC cricket world cup, as a vehicle to drive the message of climate change/global warming, deep in to the hearts of the cricket loving people and to drive the programme of ‘EARTH WATCHMAN’, playing to plant a greener globe.
We humbly invite all corporates, government institutes to join hands with EARTH WATCHMAN to perform conscious work to counter climate change. The bottom line is that we need to keep the rising temperature below 1.5 degree centigrade, whether we like it or not.
The air to breathe, if you wish to live, food, water and safe shelter are the very basic needs of the human and if we do not pay attention to the IPCC recommendations on climate change, the above basic requirements will dry up in front of our eyes. Let’s get together as a one team to execute the planned programme to permit a smile on the faces of little kids.
From all Sri Lankans, especially the past cricketers and present cricketers, we humbly urge you to come forward and assist/corporate to make this endeavor a great success. We want our small island to set an example to the rest of the world and say ‘We did it’. You follow.
(The writer is a Marketing and Management Consultant, Past President of the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing and can be reached at nalinatty@yahoo.com)