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The tourist boom has been busted by the political anarchy. The world’s best tourist destination in 2019 has been transformed into an unsafe one and one of the country’s most important foreign exchange earners has been weakened.The reversal in tourism will impact on the economy adversely. The balance of payments, external reserves, employment and incomes from the hospitality trade and other related activities, the banking and financial sector and economic growth would be hampered.

Economic impact
The economic impact of the reversal in tourism is pervasive. Tourism, one of the country’s significant sources of foreign exchange earnings, has been threatened by the political instability and confusion. The balance of payments will be severely affected, external reserves will be reduced, economic growth will be retarded, employment and incomes in the hospitality trade and linked sectors, such as transport, food and craft, would be adversely affected. If the crisis continues the banking and financial sector, too, could face difficulties. Economic growth would most certainly be impeded.

Tourist boom
Much was expected from the growing momentum of tourism. The end-October political crisis came at a time when tourism was booming. Tourist arrivals increased by nearly 11 percent in the first ten months of this year compared to the same period of last year. In the first eight months of this year, the country earned US$ 2.9 billion that was a very useful balance of payments support in a context of a large and increasing trade deficit.

The progressive increase in tourist arrivals since 2015 is unmistakable. Tourist arrivals increased by 3.2 percent in 2017 compared to the previous year and in the first ten months of 2018 tourist arrivals increased by 10.6 percent to 1.9 million. Tourist arrivals were poised to increase significantly in the last two months of this year and the first three months of next year.

Expectation
The expectation of 3 million tourists this year is now unlikely. It may reach 2.5 million at best. Consequently, foreign exchange earnings would be less than expected.

This year’s increase in tourism led to high expectations of increased tourism in the next few years. This expectation has to now await more stable conditions in the country. There have been a significant number of cancellations in next year’s bookings according to hotelliers.

Foreign exchange earnings
The foreign exchange earnings from tourism that was expected to reach US$ 3.5 billion this year would dip somewhat owing to cancellations in the last two months after the political gridlock. More significant is the fact that tourist earnings are likely to fall significantly next year from high expectations of the booming conditions owing to the adverse travel advisories and international reporting of the current political disarray. The expectation of tourist earnings of US$ 4.5 billion next year is now unrealistic. This implies an adverse impact on the balance of payments that the country can ill afford at this juncture.

Story repeated
The story of tourism in this country is that whenever tourism is about to boom or booming, it is cut down drastically by insecure conditions.
The development of tourism over the last three decades since the 1980s has had many setbacks. These included ethnic violence, terrorism, the insurgency of 1988-89, nearly three decades of war and insecurity and violent attacks on tourists during the last regime.

When the war ended, there was every prospect of a robust tourist industry that could play an important role in supporting the balance of payments and stimulating economic growth. There were several positive policies adopted and the infrastructure of the hospitality trade expanded. There was a significant increase in the years after the end of the war, but violence against tourists set back the trend in tourism.
Once again the restoration of law and order after 2015 gave a boost to tourism. Tourist arrivals and foreign exchange earnings increased in 2015-17 and was booming in 2018 when once again the boom was busted by the political instability and confusion.

Summary
The adverse implications of the political crisis for the economy are widespread and pervasive. The development of tourism over the last three decades since the 1980s has had many setbacks. These included ethnic violence, terrorism, the insurgency of 1988-89 and the war.
Now when these obstacles were behind us and there was every prospect of a robust tourist industry that could play an important role in supporting the balance of payments and stimulating economic growth, it was busted by the end-October political anarchy. Conclusion
One wonders whether tourism is viable in a country where every natural prospect pleases, but politics is vile.