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Though not an easy task, it has become the highlight of expanded backchannel moves with his blessings. As revealed exclusively in these columns last week, the task undertaken by a Buddhist monk with political orientation, has been supplemented by others. Main among them is a diplomat of a country known for its neutrality. He has engaged in cautious shuttle diplomacy among the key stakeholders to the current deadlock.

There was a step forward when 14 MPs of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), in an unprecedented move, signed a letter to President Sirisena urging him to revert to the government that existed before October 26. A carefully crafted letter on Thursday said “the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (the official name by which it is registered) will support the restoration of a Government headed by the UNF (United National Front).”

The letter left out any reference to the United National Party (UNP), to which the TNA has been extending unconditional support unobtrusively. The signatories who represent mostly the Tamil dominated north want to avoid the impression amongst their electors of a formal tie up with the UNP. Yet, the statement, contradicting the TNA’s publicly stated earlier position of not helping any party to appoint a Prime Minister or form a government, is politically very significant. The TNA also gave a handle to the President by telling him “to ensure that an Hon. Member of Parliament (who) is able to command the confidence” of the House be appointed Prime Minister – an acknowledgement that it was the President’s prerogative. It appeared to suggest subtly that the President could, if he so wished, choose another UNF nominee and not necessarily Ranil Wickremesinghe. On November 28, the UNP Parliamentary Group unanimously decided that only Ranil Wickremesinghe will be named as Prime Minister. UNP Chairman Kabir Hashim on November 30 wrote to TNA leader Sampanthan, stating that Wickremesinghe is the nominee of their party to the post of Prime Minister. The letter, also copied to Sirisena, was in response to the TNA’s letter to the President expressing support and referring to the appointment of a premier.

This is the first time in 50 years that a political grouping like the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) has publicly declared it will support one of three major political parties – the United National Party (UNP) which leads the United National Front (UNF). Whether there is a quid pro quo (or something for something) is not formally clear. The last was the 1965 Dudley Senanayake Government where the ITAK served as one of seven partners. Also on board then was the All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC).  The TNA is an alliance of four Tamil political parties — the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO), Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) and the People’s Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOT). The TNA’s latest move has drawn bitter criticism from amongst its members towards leader Rajavarothayam Sampanthan and Abraham Sumanthiran, the two principal architects of the letter. More on that in the later paragraphs.

The immediate outcome of this letter to President Sirisena is a marked change in number equations in Parliament. Claims that the Sirisena-Rajapaksa group or the one led by Ranil Wickremesinghe did not have a majority of 113 MPs supporting it in Parliament does not arise now. The UNF will have its own 103 together with 14 from the TNA that totals 117. This leaves the Sirisena-Rajapaksa group with 100 seats whilst one TNA MP functions as an independent. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has six. The other is the seat held by the Speaker which adds to 225.

With 117 votes in favour for the UNF, swearing in a new Prime Ministerial nominee has become inevitable for President Sirisena when a count is taken in Parliament. Yet, he has made clear he will not appoint Ranil Wickremesinghe. He said so this week to the diplomat who is now playing the role of interlocutor.  He also reiterated the same position during talks with the Mari Yamashita, Director, Asia Pacific Division, Department of Political Affairs at the United Nations in New York. She is here to study the current political situation and report to Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

This raises two critical questions – One is the inevitable resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister. A close aide said yesterday that Rajapaksa was not inclined to quit since “he is not involved in any of the goings on. The President has made him Prime Minister. If he wants, let him remove him now.” The second is who will be the UNP’s nominee for Premier? In the light of stated unwillingness of Sajith Premadasa and Karu Jayasuriya, even the names of close confidants of Wickremesinghe are being mentioned as an interim measure, at least until parliamentary elections are held. However, a highly placed UNPer declared sarcastically “there is no way the President can refuse after we produce our majority. He would have to eat humble pie and appoint Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister.”

Another step forward, the result of backchannel initiatives, was a statement made in Parliament on Thursday by Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe. The fact that he did not come under the whip of the UPFA facilitated the move. On Thursday morning, Rajapakshe had a meeting with President Sirisena at his Mahagamsekera Mawatha official residence before being driven to Parliament. His son, Rakhitha (a lawyer) and Media Secretary at the Defence Ministry, who was lobbying for his father, telephoned Premier Rajapaksa to seek his support. Heeding Rajapakshe’s calls during the parliamentary speech would have meant the Premier would have to submit his resignation. “Tell your father to ask President Sirisena to sack me if he wants,” replied an angry Rajapaksa. “I have work to do,” he said, and added “let the Courts decide.”

First to some highlights of Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe’s Parliament speech which clearly underscores how well synchronised is the multi-pronged backchannel initiatives have been so far. “….. I must tell that leaders of both groups, President Maitripala Sirisena and (then) Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe were unable to control their groups with decency. They failed. The two parties lost mutual trust. The President removed the Prime Minister on October 26 and appointed the former President and Member of Parliament Mahinda Rajapaksa.

“Afterwards Parliament sessions were ended and prorogued. Parliament was later dissolved. A court case is under way over the dissolution of Parliament….. There was ugly conduct there. People were fed up with some MPs and were talking of them with disgust. Now the governing of the country has come to a standstill. People are unaware of what is happening in the country and have lost hope. Therefore, day by day, groups are making allegations against each other and hurling insults….

“According to our Constitution, the judicial power of the people is exercised by Parliament through courts. Therefore the power is vested in Parliament. The power vested in the House is also created by Parliament itself by formulating new laws. Such matters occurring in Parliament can be resolved by the Executive, legislature and 225 members of the House having discussions in keeping with democratic practices. If the people query us if you can’t resolve the issue through discussion, they ask us how we can resolve their issues.”

Rajapakshe, who is a lawyer and a former Justice Minister added, “If we allow the judiciary to solve such matters, it would be downgrading Parliament. The leader of the legislature, the Speaker and Executive President have a great responsibility. In the current situation, the orders issued by the Executive, are not accepted by the Legislature and vice versa. The Executive also denies acceptance over Parliamentary approvals. Therefore, in such an instance where a constitutional deadlock occurs, the parliamentarians must not think of party politics but work towards betterment of the people by facing the issues and stabilise the political situation.

“If we see how the younger generation speaks of the current situation, we can learn. We must win the trust of people through parliamentary democracy. We should not make post-mortems by looking into right and wrong actions of people. We should again give opportunity to any group who have majority in Parliament to form a government; I would take any action as Member of Parliament.  In the past we all made mistakes. Yet, President Sirisena made a huge sacrifice by joining with the UNP. He is still safeguarding confidence of voters and working towards protecting the constitution and democracy. I believe if there are meetings with the President, party leaders might be able to resolve the issue.

“As an MP I request you to put a side other parliamentary activities temporarily and have a meeting with the President to resolve issues within a day or two. Allow a group with majority to form a government and create stability. I have requested the same from the President, The President was interested in my request. Since you have the official, legal power and the constitutional capability to act on it, I request you to intervene on the matter.”

Seconds after Rajapakshe had concluded his speech, with clockwork precision, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya responded: “I will extend my full attention towards the matter you explained, I should say to the House that the President and I don’t have any issue in getting into discussions. We can discuss and we have a mutual understanding.  I will also submit that during this time democracy must be protected. I will meet the President in the evening according to your suggestion.  I will take all measures and would take an honest effort to get the issue resolved through discussion; I will do it as soon as possible.”  A high ranking Parliament official said Minister Rajapakshe had a meeting with Speaker Jayasuriya to explain the gravamen of his speech. This included the suggestion of a meeting with Sirisena which Speaker Jayasuriya said he would “gladly accept in the national interest.” Speaker Jayasuriya was also aware of the initiatives under way.

The Sirisena-Jayasuriya meeting on Wednesday night, according to a source close to the Presidency, was a “fairy tale affair” akin to two “long lost friends getting together after years.” Deshapalaney api bena gannawa. Namuth kisima tharahak nehe obathuma ekka, or in politics we abuse each other but I have no anger towards you, declared Sirisena as he clasped his hands in Ayubowan. Speaker Jayasuriya reciprocated and declared Mey avasthava labuneka gena mama santhosa veneva or I am happy I had this opportunity.” The source said it was a “very cordial” meeting where both Sirisena and Jayasuriya exchanged plaudits while talking on serious issues. Sirisena was to explain that he trusted Jayasuriya to bring about a speedy resolution of the political deadlock and noted the esteem in which he was held by the Buddhist clergy.

Jayasuriya said in one country he visited, Sirisena was being looked upon as “Junior Mandela” for the work he had done in Sri Lanka. The head of a multilateral organisation, he pointed out, had referred to Sirisena as the “father of democracy” in Sri Lanka and asked him why he was resorting to the course of action that had triggered the political crisis. He, however, cautioned that if no immediate measures were taken to overcome the current political stalemate, the country’s economy would worsen. The GSP plus concessionary tariffs would be withdrawn. Moreover, the rupee was rapidly depreciating to the US dollar. It was agreed that party leaders would meet and discuss matters further on Friday night. The delay was because President Sirisena flew on Thursday to Polonnaruwa and the next day to Moragahakanda to ceremonially open the sluice gates.

Even if they did not talk on the subject, there was still a matter of great importance. How does one ensure Mahinda Rajapaksa, now Prime Minister for 38 days to relinquish office? According to an SLPP insider, “Premier Rajapaksa does not want to relinquish the Premiership which he was called in and given. If President Sirisena wants, he can sack him.” That is one dubious honour that may politically help Rajapaksa. However, a situation which will make it inevitable that Rajapaksa be removed has now fallen in place.

Seven UNF parliamentarians have given notice of the motion which has now been listed in the Order Book for debate on Wednesday. They are: Wijepala Hettiarachchi,  Harshana Rajakaruna, Mayantha Dissanayake,  Mujibur Rahuman, Ajith Mannapperuma,  (Dr.) Jayampathy Wickramaratne and  Hirunika Premachandra. The motion reads:

Article 48(2) in terms of the 19th Amendment states: 

"If Parliament rejects the Statement of Government Policy or the Appropriation Bill or passes a vote of no-confidence in the Government, the Cabinet of Ministers shall
stand dissolved, and the President shall, unless he has in the exercise of his powers under Article 70, dissolved Parliament, appoint a Prime Minister, Ministers of the Cabinet of
Ministers, Ministers who are not members of the Cabinet of Ministers and Deputy Ministers

in terms of Articles 42, 43, 44 and 45."

There is an interesting backdrop to this motion. Earlier, as backchannel moves were under way, the Sinhala draft of a resolution, purportedly from those at the highest levels of the government, reached the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). It was to urge the JVP to move it in Parliament, like its two previous ones. Routinely the JVP consulted the UNP leadership. One top UNF leader deleted the last line which referred to the Premier. See montage on this page with the deleted line. It is no different to the one to be debated on Wednesday.

Thus, there appears to be a nexus of sorts amongst the Presidency, the UNF and the JVP – obviously the result of a breakdown of relations between Maithripala Sirisena and Premier Rajapaksa.

JVP Propaganda Secretary Vijitha Herath said the UNP had apprised the JVP of a similar motion (in Sinhala) but denied knowledge that a draft had come to the party. However, another JVP source familiar with the developments claimed, “several drafts had come from the highest office in the country” before one was handed over in Parliament signed by UNFers. SLPP leaders who were aware of these moves were livid.

President Sirisena’s inability to secure a resignation from Premier Rajapaksa, particularly in the absence of a majority in Parliament to back his government, appears to have exacerbated tensions between the SLFP and the SLPP. On Wednesday (November 28), all 24 SLFP MPs met President Sirisena and Premier Rajapaksa. The subject of discussion was how to move forward with no majority in Parliament. Within days after being sworn in, both President Sirisena and Premier Rajapaksa had agreed on forming a joint alliance. Charging that the Rajapaksa faction has not been able to deliver numbers, the SLFP has chosen to go its own way. It will hold a special conference of party delegates countrywide at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium on Tuesday and later conduct similar district level meetings. Four from a group of 15 MPs who sat in opposition benches after the failed no confidence vote on ousted Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe in April have not been enrolled into the SLPP. They are S.B. Dissanayake, Thilanga Sumathipala, Dilan Perera and Vasantha Perera. They attended the SLFPers meeting on Wednesday.

Basil Rajapaksa, the SLPP ideologue and strategist, changed his previous stance somewhat on the issue of numbers. “We believed there would be the numbers. I don’t say anyone promised them to us,” he told the Sunday Times. Though the formation of an alliance with the SLPP did come up, there was no formal decision, he explained. The remarks were a rebuke for Minister S.B. Dissanayake who had publicly claimed there that a new alliance had been formed and even taken credit in media interviews for the formation of the Sirisena-Rajapaksa government.

With the TNA’s support for a UNF government, a majority in Parliament is no longer the issue. Yet, President Sirisena was locked in discussion on Friday night with a UNF delegation over who should be the Prime Minister. This is on his repeated assertion that he would not appoint Ranil Wickremesinghe. There were indications during the discussions that Sirisena would even withdraw the Gazette notification dissolving Parliament once a new Prime Minister is sworn in. Sirisena told the UNF leaders that he is ready to accept a UNF government sans Wickremesinghe as Premier. He expected that the issues would be resolved before the two cases in the Supreme Court as well as the Court of Appeal. The SC is hearing petitions against the dissolution of Parliament. The CA is hearing a Quo Warranto against Premier Rajapaksa. The two hour-long discussions ended inconclusively and it has been agreed that a UNF delegation will meet President Sirisena today for further talks.

Ahead of the meeting with the UNF, President Sirsena met a delegation from the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Besides confirming the contents of the TNA’s letter to Sirisena, the delegation urged the President to further expedite the release of lands belonging to Tamils in the North – lands that are still under military control. The TNA delegation also said that immediate steps should be taken to release “political prisoners” against whom charges had not been preferred. President Sirisena told the TNA delegation that he was indebted to the Tamil community for their support to become President. He assured that he would always look after their interests. In reciprocal remarks, TNA leader Rajavarothayam Sampanthan assured President Sirisena that their alliance would not extend any support to moves directed at Sirisena. These remarks were in effect an assurance that the TNA would back President Sirisena in the event of any impeachment move against him.

Although the TNA has made clear, it will not hold any position in a new government to which it has extended support, the alliance has come under criticism. A member of the Co-ordinating Committee of the four party alliance, their main policy making body, TELO General Secretary Nallathamby Srikantha told the Sunday Times “it’s a violation of our (TNA) constitution.” He added, “We are unanimous that the Mahinda Rajapaksa government should go. When it comes to what next, we are only a third party. The main forces are led by the UNF, the SLFP and the SLPP. We cannot take one side. This is stooping to the lowest level. This is a betrayal of the Tamil people.”

Srikantha said he would “salute the JVP” for the principled stand it had taken in not supporting the UNF in appointing a Premier or forming a government. I am of the view the TNA, as declared earlier, should have followed this principle. “We are not sure whether this was done because Tamils have now been promised a new Constitution before February 4 next year. I do not believe in secret deals,” Srikantha declared. He strongly criticised TNA leaders Sampanthan and Sumanthiran for the move and accused them of “fooling the Tamil people.”

S. Shritharan, MP who was angry about the letter told TNA leader Sampanthan last Thursday that he had signed only because he felt “there should be unity among the TNA MPs.” When he had earlier declined, Sampanthan had alleged that he was refusing to sign since he had received large sums of money from the Rajapaksas — a claim which the MP denied strongly. Shritharan boycotted a TNA delegation meeting with ousted Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on Thursday evening at ‘Temple Trees’. He was also absent from the meeting TNA delegation had on Friday night with President Sirisena. Another who kept away from Temple Trees was TNA MP S. Sivamohan.

Shritharan told the Sunday Times “; I asked that written assurances be obtained in advance before extending support to Ranil Wickremesinghe. I cannot say anything more.” However, he told a meeting of his supporters yesterday that “although Tamil people will endorse our opposition to Mahinda Rajapaksa, what do we tell them for supporting Wickremesinge?” He noted that people were not benefiting from the TNA though some leaders were. One instance was how a leader had obtained 150 jobs in the north from a former Minister. He said the voters turn against us. Shritharan also told his supporters that he had been forced to sign (with other TNA members) a letter to issue a Quo Warranto on Rajapaksa. “I was not happy. We could have said anything in Parliament. Now, we have taken our battle outside and offended the Sinhala people. They know where we stand,” he told them.

After the TNA delegation’s meeting with Wickremesinghe, the Jaffna-based Uthayan newspaper reported in its front page lead story on Friday that ousted Premier Wickremesinghe, had assured to provide in writing a letter to confirm that the new Constitution, addressing Tamil aspirations among others, would be presented in Parliament before the next February 4 Independence Day. This is when the UNF is ensconced in power. TNA parliamentarian E. Saravanapavan, who was a member of the TNA delegation, is the Managing Director of the Uthayan newspaper. The TNA also placed before Wickremesinghe its repeated demands for the return of more lands now with the military, the release of “political prisoners” and quick payment of compensation to those who lost their properties.

Why did President Sirisena go into a “ceasefire” mode and literally come down a few steps to negotiate a resolution of the political impasse? As is well known, the dissolution of Parliament is the subject of litigation before the Supreme Court which acts as the country’s Constitutional Court. The Supreme Court is to resume sittings on December 4, 5 and 6 but a ruling, originally listed for December 7, authoritative sources say, could be delayed further. The case will now be heard before a seven-judge bench.  It is not customary to forecast how the country’s highest court will rule but it could be said that a possible unfavourable outcome is causing concerns at the highest levels of government.

This, an authoritative source said, was the primary concern for President Sirisena and came amidst not only a deteriorating economy but also a shaky national security situation brought about by highly amateurish conduct by top defence officials. Already, Police Chief Pujith Jayasundera has come under severe criticism for mishandling the alleged plot to assassinate President Sirisena and former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The President declared last week in an exclusive interview with the Sunday Times that he would introduce a new approach to the investigations in the light of previous attempts to stall it.

Just this week, the Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Ravindra Wijegunaratne, the highest ranking serving officer in the defence establishment, was arraigned before the Colombo Magistrate’s Court. He is accused of “harbouring suspects who were allegedly responsible for murders.” There is no gainsaying that no Sri Lankan is above the country’s law and has to be dealt with if he or she violated it. That applies to Admiral Wijegunaratne, too.

However, there lies a bigger issue. The Criminal Investigation Department (CID) and Admiral Wijegunaratne have been playing a cat and mouse game, with the full glare of the media. He was asked to report to the CID headquarters. He did not turn up. After this ding-dong battle, he surrendered to court wearing his full naval regalia of an Admiral including badges. It took the Chief Magistrate Ranga Dissanayake to direct him to go back and return in civilian clothes.

The fact that an Admiral who is holding sway at the apex of the defence establishment should go in full uniform to Court should put the Ministry of Defence in shame. After all, the case was not against the Admiral but Wijegunaratne who held a lower rank when the alleged incident had taken place. That the Admiral’s presence in full uniform, which went unchecked, did infuriate officer ranks of the armed forces who complained it was a slur on all of them. Even those who held senior ranks were critical for bringing into disrepute the office of an Admiral.

The MoD, which is required to uphold the law, did little when he was summoned to the CID headquarters. If the CID was wrong, the MoD could have raised issue, but it could do little when he went with his entire security retinue in full uniform to courts. This is the result of unbridled amateurishness at the MoD in the past three years or more. One need hardly say that it reflects badly on President Maithripala Sirisena who is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Recently a bureaucrat remarked at a meeting that he too had worn uniform and would defend all ranks come what may. Is that by violating accepted norms?

At least for the first time in six weeks, the numbers game in Parliament is resolved. Thus the UNF is set to have its own Prime Minister whilst the current incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa faces the axe. He is defiant and has vowed to face chop instead of quitting. President Sirisena has almost won a “ceasefire” and a “negotiated settlement” is on hand. But troubles are far from over for him. A new, stormy, fierce phase is just about to begin.