Sunday Times 2
Intrepid saviour of the Sri Lankan rupee
Despite the rhapsodies and sacrifices — even the ‘supreme sacrifice’– played and pledged to unborn generations by our politicians, it is quite likely that these babies, given a choice, will prefer not to be born in Lanka.
With all good intentions, unborn generations have been continuously assured by our leaders with a happy and a good life in this paradisiacal isle, but, on arrival, they find it is a paradise lost. The babes as grownups have come to terms with reality: Even the road to Hell is paved with the best of intentions.
Recent arrivals will find out that they are blessed with a national debt mounting to billions of American dollars –a burden as heavy as this, their predecessors were not called upon to bear. Those who enjoyed their political high jinks while pocketing some of the millions of dollars borrowed, will be dead and gone soon. And the much heralded unborn generations and their progeny will inherit the massive debt.
We talk of our glorious past, not so much about the present and sweet nothing about the future although today we are well and truly embroiled in the worst political and economic crisis after Independence.
An exception on talking about the future has been Bandula Gunawardena, Minister of International Trade and Investment Promotion of a government whose legality is in doubt. Last week he declared that the government was preparing a strategy to prevent further depreciation of the rupee against the dollar and to appreciate it to Rs. 166 against the dollar within a year.
Since the rupee began its slide against the dollar some months ago, the anti- Yahapalanaya media had it frontline news every day and kept blaming the government and Ranil Wickremesinghe. Since October 26, the day Mahinda Rajapaksa was installed as prime minister, although the rupee kept its steady downward slide it was no longer news to the ‘independent’ pro- Rajapaksa and the state-run media till Gunawardana broke the silence. It would be a considerable achievement by this former teacher to halt the slide of the Sri Lankan rupee against the mighty American dollar when currencies of much more economically advanced countries than ours have been suffering the same fate as the Sri Lankan rupee. Gunawardana, in the present day context, is like Atlas holding up the globe on his shoulders. Who knows, he may be in line for next year’s Nobel Prize for Economics!
How he will do it is not revealed as yet although every passing day the rupee slides down further, draining Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves. And he is a minister of the government that has seized power. It could be that since his mighty boss declared that it is an interim government, he is awaiting the formation of the Pohottuwa gang as a permanent fixture. Besides, though Gunawardana was the shadow Finance Minister of the Rajapaksa faction in the Opposition, he has not been made the Finance Minister in the ‘interim government’. Mahinda Rajapaksa holds the portfolio of Finance and it has to be realised that as a practice key portfolios are held only by Rajapaksas in Rajapaksa cabinets.
There are three theories on how Gunawardana will attempt to halt the slide of the rupee against the dollar. One is that he will use the Lake House Rotary presses — now being underutilised — to print US dollars. The other is to involve the people and use laptop printers with talented artistes to produce US dollars throughout the island. The third is to obtain a huge multibillion dollar loan from a Chinese bank.
The multibillion-dollar loan could be multi-purpose not only to pay back previous loans. It could be used for the happiness of greater numbers not only the top dogs. Come elections, dhal, canned fish, onions and other commodities which the hoi polloi relish could come in handy and also be pocket money for the top dogs.
But who is to pay back the latest multibillion dollar loan with interest accrued in addition to previous billion dollar loans taken? The unborn generations who will grow up as their predecessors had done. It can’t be helped, for that is the Karmic Cycle in operation.
Gunawardana, it is said, has very good relations with China, being recently awarded a doctorate from the University of Beijing without stepping into that university campus. Or it may be an honorary doctorate. If it was on a thesis presented to the university it may have been on: Multiple Methodologies in Halting Depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee against the American Dollar. Some years ago he came out with another stunning economic theory: A family of five could exist on an income of Rs 2,500 a month. While the government of the day being under severe pressure on the cost of living hailed it, housewives, the traditional home economists, were not amused. A prophet is not recognised in his own country.
Considering the fresh, off-the-beaten track thinking of this economist, Mahinda Rajapaksa can help himself by giving Gunawardana the portfolio he deserves.
Rajapaksa’s selection of the interim cabinet appears to indicate his belief that repetition of mistakes of the past leads to ultimate success contrary to that old adage: He who keeps repeating the same mistakes hoping for success is not of a sound mind. His 30 new ministers are those of the same pack that Sirisena and Wickremesinghe threw out in 2015. Can they pull something out of their old hats to propel the country out of the present economic and political chaos? There will be the background boys such as the bureaucrats and astrologers, too, but will they also be of the same vintage? The singular redeeming feature is that of only one Rajapaksa being in the ministerial list—Loku Aiya, Chamal. But this is only the interim Cabinet.
Meanwhile, the unborn generations, once considered the precious national treasures, have grown up and sprouting beards are waiting to march again to that strident call: ‘Diyaw’, ‘Diyaw’ (Give! Give!).Can Wickremesinghe, if he hangs on, or Rajapaksa, if he resurrects himself, meet their demands?
They have nothing to give.