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The first effort, which he prefers, is based on the premise that his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) could work out an electoral alliance with the Sri Lanka Podujana (People’s) Peramuna (SLPP). Such a deal, he hopes, may lead to his becoming a joint candidate from both parties — a sine qua non, he thinks, for a victory.

In terms of the Constitution, the President may, at any time after the expiration of four years from “the commencement of his first term of office, by proclamation, declare his intention of appealing to the People for a mandate to hold office, by election, for a further term.” Accordingly, after January 9, 2019 the President can declare his intention to call for an election. The Constitution also stipulates that the poll for the election of the President shall be taken not less than one month and not more than two months before the expiration of the term of office of the president in office. This would be not after December, 8, 2019 and not before November 8, 2019.

Every week, however, the likelihood of an electoral alliance between the SLFP and the SLPP is slipping away from the hands of President Sirisena. The reasons are many. What has been unsaid include his recent actions — the appointment of Governors to different provinces among many other issues that have not been made public. There was also some last minute bungling. The Chief Minister of Uva, Chamara Sampath protested against the appointment of Rajith Keerthi Tennekoon, head of a polls monitoring body, as Governor. President Sirisena re-appointed Tennekoon to the Southern Province. Marshal Perera, father of MP Dilan Perera, who was in the Southern Province was among those who resigned. However, Sirisena, who did not accept his resignation shifted him to the Uva Province. The exercise showed the ad hocism that has plagued the Sirisena presidency.

They at least like to teach the country to sing in perfect harmony. President Maithripala Sirisena, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa seen together at the Nelum Pokuna theatre concert by well known singers Bathiya and Santush. Pic courtesy Twitter: Manjula Basnayake @BasnayakeM

Though it is the sole prerogative of the President to make such appointments, some SLPPers argue that a nexus with him developed after he installed Mahinda Rajapaksa, the de facto SLPP leader as Prime Minister. In the light of consultation over many other issues, they say, they should also have been sounded out. A cause for heartburn is also the appointment of Shantha Bandara on the National List to replace M.L.A.M. Hisbullah as MP. They had sought to propose Charitha Herath, a former Media Secretary who is from the Kurunegala District. More so, they argue, when Sirisena is seeking SLPP support for his presidential candidature and thus his actions would reflect on them too.

On the other hand, some SLFPers argue Sirisena remains mindful about SLPP concerns. A strong case in point they say is the appointment of Major General Shavendra Silva as the Chief of Staff of the Sri Lanka Army. His appointment signals that he is next in line to be the Commander of the Sri Lanka Army. However, his term expires on June 22 this year. Lt Gen Mahesh Senanayake, who has won a one-year extension of service, will see his term end on August 28. Maj. Gen. Silva was very closely associated with the then Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and was in the forefront of the military campaign that defeated Tiger guerrillas in May 2009. As a result, he also served a stint as Sri Lanka’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York.

The Tamil diaspora has raised issue over Maj Gen Silva’s appointment alleging that he was involved in “war crimes”. The London-based Global Tamil Forum (GTF) said in a statement “The recent appointment of Shavendra Silva as the Chief of Staff (CofS ) of the Sri Lankan army has sent shockwaves through the Tamil community, and to all those interested in human rights and accountability in Sri Lanka. Such appointment, particularly as Sri Lanka’s human rights record is about to be reviewed in Geneva in March 2019, is a clear message to the international community that the country cares little about its views and the potential consequences of its failures in faithfully implementing the UNHRC resolution 30, 34/1…..”

A Defence Ministry official, who did not wish to be identified, refuted the accusations and said, “Maj. Gen. Silva is a brave officer.” He said President Sirisena, as Commander-in-Chief has appointed him “taking into consideration all the merits.” The issue is bound to reverberate in the halls of the Palais de Naciones in Geneva when the UN Human Rights Council sessions begin in March. President Sirisena, according to a source close to him, was looking at the possibility of withdrawing Sri Lanka’s co-sponsorship of the UN resolution, which among others, called for an internationally credible probe on alleged war crimes, which can mean international judges.

Proposing the co-sponsorship together with the United States was Mangala Samaraweera, the then Minister of Foreign Affairs. It has now come to light that he had overruled a strong recommendation by then then Sri Lanka’s Permanent Representative to Geneva and now Foreign Secretary Ravinatha Ariyasinha not to co-sponsor the resolution. Sirisena’s present stance is consonant with the policies of the ‘Joint Opposition’ albeit the SLPP. Calls to Samaraweera to determine whether he had President Sirisena’s approval before committing Sri Lanka to the US resolution, went unanswered.

Discussions between the SLFP and the SLPP have stalled after the last round nearly two weeks ago. Taking part in that round for the SLFP were Mahinda Amaraweera and M.L.A.M. Hisbullah, who was last week appointed as Governor of the Eastern Province. On the SLPP side were Dinesh Gunawardena and Basil Rajapaksa. This week, President Sirisena personally renewed initiatives to re-start the dialogue. As revealed last week, the SLPP is to place a string of conditions for the SLFP for an electoral alliance.

As for Sirisena being their candidate jointly with the SLFP, the chances remain very slim though not altogether ruled out. The argument here, SLFPers say, is that two Rajapaksa brothers – Gotabaya (as presidential candidate) and Mahinda as Prime Ministerial aspirant – was something that could not be marketed to the country together. Hence, they seem to believe there is a ray of hope but are impatient. They want to prompt an early response from the SLPP.

This is perhaps the main reason why the SLFP, whose key players have all been harping at the creation of a common alliance with the SLPP in the past weeks, have changed their tune. Former Minister S.B. Dissanayake, known for saying one thing today and denying it tomorrow, falsely declared earlier that a common alliance was already in place. Former Minister Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena told a news conference this week that a large group of 29 political parties supporting the SLFP would join hands with the SLPP.

The fact that the SLPP was negotiating only with the SLFP was lost on him. So was the condition laid down by the SLPP that any other party wishing to join the proposed alliance should make requests in writing individually. The SLFP’s newly appointed acting General Secretary, Dayasiri Jayasekera, also declared that his priority was to re-unite those who left the SLFP and were now with the SLPP.

This week, however, SLFP spokesperson and former Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe, still a close confidant of the President, told a news conference that Sirisena would be the presidential candidate of their party. “It is a matter for other parties if they want to support him or not,” he declared. Senior Deputy Leader and former Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva repeated the same assertions at a news conference at the SLFP Headquarters in Darley Road. It came after Jayasekera assumed duties there. Earlier, President Sirisena, too, visited the premises to exude bonhomie and deliver a message – that he was still in charge of the SLFP headquarters. This is after it was shut down during yearend holidays amidst fears that loyalists of former President and then SLFP leader, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga were seizing control of the building.

Both Sirisena and Kumaratunga have been avoiding each other. Last Tuesday, at the Galle Face promenade Kumaratunga remained in her car until President Sirisena finished formalities before the statute of S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, the founder of the SLFP, to mark his birth anniversary. It is only when he left that she moved in.

Weeding our Kumaratunga loyalists

President Sirisena has now embarked on another new initiative. He has begun meetings on a province-by-province basis with his SLFP organisers, whose positions he stripped. On Friday, he met those from four different provinces and hopes to complete the rest of the meetings in the coming week. The idea is to weed out Kumaratunga loyalists and ensure his own loyalists, mostly newcomers, hold sway. If that is part of what is being described as “strengthening the SLFP,” the inherent dangers are ominous. Those who know they will not receive appointments are making their way both to the SLPP and the United National Party (UNP). The question is whether they will be able to convert SLFP into a formidable force in less than a year. This is to raise its vote base from 13 percent which it received at the last February’s local council elections, albeit with the help of the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC).

The new assertions of the Sirisena loyalists in the SLFP together with the President’s own are echoing in the SLPP. Some at the SLPP higher levels interpret them as a new move to prompt their party to react. In other words, to hurriedly declare who their presidential candidate is. It was for this same reason that the SLFP negotiators who talked to the SLPP earlier wanted to conclude an accord before January 15, as revealed last week.

This explains why two MPs who support the SLPP — Roshan Ranasinghe (Polonnaruwa District) and Shehan Semasinghe (Anuradhapura Distict) – reacted. During a news conference, Ranasinghe was more vocal. He said the selection of a presidential candidate would have to be decided by their leader Mahinda Rajapaksa. “The people are thinking that Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa are together. We have seen that President Sirisena was using Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and the UNP to get rid of people indirectly. We know the President is praising a former predecessor Ranasinghe Premadasa whilst keeping his son, Sajith, the deputy UNP leader by his side,” said Ranasinghe. He said people were asking what the deal with Sajith was. Pointing out that the SLFP was making “one-sided comments,” a future UNP President would only endanger Sirisena. “Therefore, for his safety he should support a Rajapaksa who comes from the SLPP,” he added.

These factors notwithstanding, opinion is building in the SLPP that backing Sirisena as a presidential candidate may turn out to be counter-productive for them. As pointed out earlier, this is not only on the grounds that the SLFP would find it difficult to win. Yet, an influencing factor is the personal mutual admiration both President Sirisena and his predecessor have developed for each other. Did the “honeymoon atmosphere” lead to any assurances to Sirisena? Whether such a relationship could transcend other issues and Rajapaksa can carry it through his own party, if he so wished, remains a critical question.

More so in this unsettled background where many an action of Sirisena has generated controversy. Another matter of serious concern to the SLPP is what it believes is a fine thread running through from President Sirisena to sections in the UNP. At the highest levels, the SLPP has discussed unpublicised instances of Sirisena’s heavy leanings to this section and heeding their wishes. That has raised questions of not only credibility but also trust. The role of two former SLFP ministers has also caused concern for the SLPP.

UNP’s concerns

For the UNP, now in the driving seat, the issues are many. Whilst coping with an economic downturn, it has to focus on a budget. It is perhaps the last one before the presidential election. At the highest levels of the UNP, there are also concerns over President Sirisena’s plans for 2019. There are fears over what the UNPers claim is a “political witch-hunt” after his speech at the opening of a new town in Laggala last Tuesday.

President Sirisena declared, “There were many successes as well as some failures in the drive to fulfil the hopes and aspirations of the people in the past four years. It is my desire to further consolidate the successes during the remaining part of my office and fulfil the promises that have not been kept so far. We have failed in ensuring the basic good-governance concepts of preventing fraud, corruption and irregularities. These flow down from politicians. Political parties are corrupt, most leaders in politics are corrupt, new local council members are corrupt. We should understand this challenge. The country does not need people who work according to their personal agendas and only seek power. We need people who work according to a common agenda for the benefit of the country and the people.” That in essence sums up President Sirisena’s agenda for the New Year.

In the midst of all their woes, the UNP leaders also saw through the presentation of a 151-page draft Constitution. The fact that at least publicly, the UNP remains clinically detached from the exercise is underscored by an event at the Nelum Pokuna arts centre on Thursday night. It was a programme titled Oba Nisa (Because of You), the twentieth anniversary of singers Bhatiya and Santush, artistes who have brought fame to Sri Lanka.

Just before the show began, the VIP guests had arrived and were in a room waiting to be ushered into the theatre. Seated on a long sofa were President Sirisena, Thilanga Sumathipala and Harshana Rajakaruna (UNP parliamentarian for Dompe). Premier Wickremesinghe was in a separate chair and another, meant for Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa, was vacant. He had not arrived. Just then the SLPP architect, Basil Rajapaksa  turned up. He occupied the chair meant for his brother Mahinda.

He turned to Wickremesinghe and asked “why are you suspending Standing Orders all the time?” He was alluding to the meetings of the Constitutional Assembly. The Premier replied that the procedure for such meetings had already been laid down. Then he declared referring to the draft Constitution that “Magey yojana mokuth nehe” there are no proposals from me. He explained that it was not a UNP draft. Sirisena remained quiet though he listened to the conversation. When the show began, a Sinhala announcer first introduced the guests and declared that Mahinda Rajapaksa was on his way. When the Leader of the Opposition arrived, the English announcer said he was now in the audience. There was a round of applause.

The new constitution:
Some highlights

Even if the UNP claimed it had no role in the new draft Constitution, one of the main highlights in it was to enhance the powers of the Prime Minister in many areas. Besides Parliament, the draft seeks to set up a second chamber. It is to be made up, among others, of five members each from every Provincial Council. The President’s powers are to be curbed in exercising certain functions. For this purpose a Committee has been proposed comprising the Chief Justice or a Judge of the Supreme Court nominated by the Chief Justice, the Minister in charge of the subject of Justice or an official nominated by the minister and the Attorney-General or an officer of the Attorney-General’s Department nominated by the AG, and subject to the approval of this recommendation by the Prime Minister.

Interesting enough, every page of the draft Constitution carries a caveat – Confidential – Not for circulation (Discussion Paper for Internal Discussion Only). A preamble says it is a “report prepared by the Panel of Experts for the Steering Committee based on the Interim Report, six Sub Committee Reports set up by the Steering Committee to look into the relationship between Parliament and Provincial Councils.” However, the Sunday Times learnt that two key players, one a lawyer cum politician and another a lawyer cum politician described as a “constitutional expert,” were responsible for the draft. When it was first presented to the Steering Committee, several issues were raised by participants. Dinesh Gunawardena, leader of the “Joint Opposition”, wanted to know why an Attorney General’s Department official who was seconded to work with the Committee had suddenly reverted to the Department.

He argued that in terms of a resolution moved then by Premier Wickremesinghe, it was the Constituent Assembly that was to formulate a draft Constitution. Instead, the current draft is being touted as one done by the Panel of Experts. He said this was impossible since the panel was sharply divided on those issues. That was the reason why the so-called draft did not carry the names of the experts who formulated it. He said such an exercise, if accepted, would cause irreparable harm to Sri Lanka and its citizens. Premier Wickremesinghe then proposed that the draft be presented as a report and not as a potential Constitution. For this purpose, four other proposals on which political parties had received copies earlier, were included. Gunawardena said that the Steering Committee and the Constituent Assembly were a “futile exercise” and should be shut down without spending more public funds.

One draft provision which is highlighted in black in the entire draft is of interest. This is what it says: “Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in the Constitution, the Supreme Court/Constitutional Court shall have sole and exclusive jurisdiction and power to make:

(a)  A declaration that any law made by Parliament, any statute made by a Provincial Council or provision thereof that is inconsistent with any provision of the Constitution is invalid to the extent of the inconsistency; and  A declaration that any law made by Parliament, any statute made by a Provincial Council or provision thereof that is inconsistent with any provision of the Constitution is invalid to the extent of the inconsistency; and

(b)  Any order that is just and equitable, including any order limiting the retrospective effect of the declaration of invalidity; and Any order suspending the declaration of invalidity; for such period and subject to such conditions as would enable Parliament or a Provincial Council to take steps to make the impugned law or statute cease to be inconsistent with the provisions of the Constitution.

“The Constitution would require that every treaty, along with a memorandum of understanding explaining its implications, be tabled in Parliament at least one month before ratification. Parliament may adopt a resolution recommending ratification, reservations or even non-ratification. The executive would be bound by the terms of such resolution.

“Parliament shall be informed of the ratification of every such treaty forthwith.

“The provision of a human rights treaty shall become a part of the domestic law on the expiry of a period of two years reckoned from the date of ratification. Parliament may by resolution extend such period by one year or reduce such period. Any further extension of the period, not exceeding one year at a time, would require a two thirds majority. Where Parliament passes a law incorporating a part but not the entirety of a treaty before automatic incorporation, the unincorporated provisions would become domestic law at the end of the period concerned.

“In relation to human rights treaties to which Sri Lanka is a party at the time the new constitutional provisions come into effect, the two year period shall begin to run from such time.”

The draft also seeks to set up a Provincial Police service as well as a Provincial Police Commission. A Senior DIG is to be in charge of the Provincial Police Service. It is the Chief Minister and the National Police Commission that will agree on it. There will also be a National Public Service and a Provincial Public Service – a proposal which literally seeks to bifurcate the state service. It also seeks to restrict the President’s appointment of Head of the Army, the Navy and the Air Force subject to the approval of the Constitutional Council, the Attorney General and the Inspector General of Police (IGP).

There is little doubt that there are some very controversial provisions in the draft Constitution, which the main authors say is a “discussion paper.” That it comes amidst heavy pressure from the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on the United National Front (UNF) Government is all too well known. It is also well known that the TNA took the unusual step of having its 14 MPs support Ranil Wickremesinghe for the office of Prime Minister.

The question whether such a draft Constitution, even with some changes, will be passed with a two thirds vote in Parliament and a referendum thereafter appears very bleak. What the TNA is seeking, it to use its new found tie with the UNF, not so much for a new Constitution. It is more to go through a drill and then blame it on the Sinhalese and accuse them of stalling power sharing with the minorities. This is much the same way the TNA is now preparing to make a strong pitch at the UNHRC sessions in Geneva in March. In return, for the UNP, appeasing the TNA is an investment in an insurance policy for it to get a majority vote for the upcoming budget.

When the Constituent Assembly met on Friday, Opposition leader Rajapaksa declared that any Constitution should be accepted by all people. He said, “There is a doubt whether people would approve this. You have already delayed elections. You have blocked the means for people’s verdict. Do not try to fool people and parliament. We cannot do this within Parliament. This could be approved by people. You should hold an election. We would bring our proposals then and we let people to decide.”

However, TNA leader Rajavarothayam Sampanthan made a passionate appeal for the new Constitution. He said, “Muslims, Burgher or any community, all Sri Lankans have a right of their motherland. All are equal citizens of this country. We should be united in our approach. We have failed to protect unity in diversity and to create a common Sri Lankan identity. It is our intention to unite people through this Constitution. Some call themselves patriots. I think that they are pseudo-patriots. They work for votes and to secure a majority. There had been a nexus between pseudo-patriotism and corruption. The country has become poor thanks to their conduct. They say they work for the people but they use racism as a tool to mobilise people.”

The declarations by Mahinda Samarasinghe and Nimal Siripala de Silva that Sirisena will be the presidential candidate for the SLFP signal a new direction for the party. Both are former ministers who have espoused the need for the continuance of the alliance that existed with the UNP earlier. If the SLPP eventually decides that it would go it alone, one need hardly say that it would isolate the SLFP considerably, to a level where it would find it hard to go it alone. This is notwithstanding claims that the party would be made much stronger. The prospects of a reunion with the UNP remain out of the question with a widening gulf in relations between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe.

Thus, President Sirisena, much against his own liking, has become the captive of his own actions. He has abandoned a Wickremesinghe-led UNP, and not getting the desired response from the Rajapaksa-led SLPP. He is falling between two stools. Battle lines are getting sharply defined in the SLPP over the move for a common alliance. If nothing else, that may dissuade the SLPP to keep the new born party intact and move ahead on its own steam. For a presidential election, that is no easy task. That is now its dilemma.