Sunday Times 2
‘Faked dynasties’ in Third World democratic polls
Joe Stalin, whatever his achievements and failures may have been, was certainly not considered an authority on democracy and free and fair elections. But his quip on elections made, perhaps well over half century ago — ‘People who cast votes decide nothing. Those who count votes decide everything’ — is quite relevant to the 21st Century. Countries big and small, developed and underdeveloped, democratic and banana republics, dictatorships and democracies all hold elections to select their leaders for whatever reasons.
Sheikh Hasina gestures after casting her vote in the December 30th general elections. Reuters
Has the Roman saying vox populi vox dei — Voice of the Ppeople is the Voice of God—- overtaken Stalin’s political truism with time? Or has the Voice of the People become the Voice of the Devil?
Recent elections in Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Kenya have given reason to –even among their sincere well- wishers — doubt whether the elections were truly ‘free and fair’ — as the saying goes.
Since the nineties, elections in Bangladesh have been a Battle of the two Begums — Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia — with the military intervening and taking over leadership at sporadic intervals. On December 30 last year, Sheikh Hasina swept the polls winning — an unbelievable— 90 percent of the parliamentary seats while widespread allegations of election violence and vote rigging were abound . Her main opponent Khaleda Zia who had also been prime minister twice before was in jail on two convictions for corruption. Sheikh Hasina is the daughter of Sheik Mujibur Rahman, founding father of Bangladesh. She too has been twice prime minister. Khaleda Zia is the widow of General Ziaur Rahman who seized power in a military coup to become president and was assassinated by his own army officials. The election last December has not been described as free and fair except by Hasina and her party followers while the crackling post-election political environment is far from conducive for being an accepted democracy.
The August 2017 elections in Kenya had Uhuru Kenyatta being declared the winner having polled 54 per cent of the vote but with Kenyatta’s rival Raila Odinga challenging the result , the Supreme Court of Kenya declared the election invalid and ordered a second election to be held. Uhuru is a son of Jomo Kenyatta, the legendary leader of Kenyan independence. Uluru won the second election too but this time with only 39 per cent of voter participation with the Opposition boycotting the polls. The political atmosphere in Kenya, observers say, is far removed from what a democracy should be.
The results of the December 30 elections last year, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) were released on Thursday, with the electoral officials proclaiming opposition figure Felix Tshisekedi the victor. He will replace Joseph Kabila who has ruled the country for 18 years. But the results have been contested by rival candidates and the Catholic Church and tension is building up in the capital Kinshasha. Congo, blessed with abundant natural resources (population 81.5 million), was ruthlessly exploited by colonial powers. It gained independence in 1960 and has since been devastated by the stupidity of its own rulers, to date. Laurent Kabila, father of Joseph Kabila (outgoing president) seized power from Mobutu Sees Seiko who ruled for 32 continuous disastrous years. Laurent Kabila was killed in 2001 and after years of civil war, Kabila’s son Joseph Kabila was elected president in 2006. The first elected Congolese president secured another term till 2011 but when that was over in 2016, he refused to leave office and delayed elections till December 30 last year. Free and fair elections being held was much in doubt. Public rallies were banned since September 2016 and in December weeks before the elections a fire gutted one of the main warehouses destroying 2/3rds of the counting machines that were expected to be used in Kinshasa, the capital. Joseph Kabila after 17 years as president said he was stepping down and backed his Minister of the Interior Emmanuel Ramayana Shadily who has proclaimed his victory soon after elections. Kabila in a recent BBC interview has said that he would not play formal role in the next government but did not rule out standing up again in the 2023 elections.
There are many common features in the politics of the three ‘democracies’ cited above and other democracies including Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan.
A notable common feature has been the tendency towards building up of dynasties which is a significant detrimental factor in the development of a genuine democracy. In democracies, it is considered essential that every person is born with equal rights and no one has privileges of a birthright in the ascension to power. Sheik Hasina, Khaled Zia, Uluru Kenyatta and Joseph Kabila are of humble origin. Do the actions of their fathers in seizing power by legal or illegal means confer on them special rights of ascension to seats of power like the descendants of royal families of the past? This tendency of some families with faked dynastic claims has been evident and still persists even in countries of older vintage such India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Such dynastic politics invariably leads to nepotism, corruption and is detrimental to the development of genuine democracy.
In this ‘election year’ in Sri Lanka, much could be learnt from the experience gained in the three ‘democratic elections.’ cited above. Joseph Stalin’s observations on elections should be considered in the context of the election procedure and its evolution over 50 years. In most developing democracies voting does not take place at polling booths on elections day, but has its origins in the election campaign itself. The abuse of state power before election day has been alleged by the Oppositions in Bangladesh, Kenya and in the Congo. In Bangladesh, the opposition even in previous elections has been pushing for a provisional government to conduct an election instead of the ruling government whose party is in the fray. However ‘independent’ an election commission may be, if the military and police are used — or rather misused — by the government, the commission will be impotent to prevent abuses. After the election, whatever the commission or ‘Independent foreign observers’ will say will be irrelevant.
The use of internet and other social media is another new factor in play at elections. In the Congo, the government knocked out the internet soon after the election. The reason given by one Opposition candidate was that it enabled the government to avoid the embarrassment of proclaiming victory, so soon after elections. Will our Election Commission take note or pay heed to the social media now immersed neck deep in the Sri Lankan election campaign even before its commencement? Defamation and libel seem be fair play as the younger generation keeps chattering, slanging and rumour mongering on their mobiles wherever they may be.