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Sworn in for a second time during a single term Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe returned with considerable lusture and some lament. He appeared stronger than before. The lusture was over the new opportunity to preside over his party during a critical phase of the country, to be voter centric and place it on track for victories at upcoming polls, both presidential and parliamentary. The laments were many.

For the first time, after being appointed as Opposition Leader, SLPP de facto leader Mahinda Rajapaksa went to his office on Friday.

He declared there was an economic downturn and vowed to put it right. He needed more ministers for twin reasons. One was the clamour from his close backers, including those who held portfolios earlier, for ministerial positions. Many initiatives have been launched towards this. One is to explore the prospects for a group of SLFP parliamentarians, now backing President Sirisena, to support the UNP led United National Front (UNF) in an alliance. However, there is a hitch. If they leave on their own, he will not swear them in.

To overcome this, the UNP has in fact consulted legal opinion. Plans are afoot to get an SLFP MP to resign and for the Premier to recommend his name for appointment as a Minister. “If that is refused, we want to file action in the Supreme Court as a test case,” said a senior UNPer. The name of septuagenarianformer minister A,H.M. Fowzie is being mentioned as likely to resign. Whatever the outcome is, that would place the President on a collision course with the UNP albeit the UNF government.

On the other hand, the SLFP MPs who number around 18 believe an alliance with the UNP will give them ministerial positions. They want to seek an urgent meeting with President Sirisena who arrived in Sri Lanka yesterday after a state visit to the Philippines. One of them who spoke on grounds of anonymity declared “we want to ask him bluntly what he wants us to do. We face a bleak political future.” The MP said “Since October 26, when he chose to replace Premier Wickremesinghe, President Sirisena kept us in the dark. He has not taken us into his confidence and tell us what he had planned to do. We ended up in political disaster. We not only lost our positions but also found ourselves placed in great uncertainty. At least in our own interests, he should allow us to decide and play fair by us.” If Sirisena allows them to leave, there will only be a just a handful of SLFP parliamentarians left to back him – the remnants of what was historically one of the largest political parties.

On Tuesday (January 15 – Thai Pongal Day), after the weekly ministerial meeting, three members of the UNF – Kabir Hashim, Malik Samarawickrema and Rishad Bathiuddin – met President Sirisena. Hashim made a plea to him that Ranjit Madduma Bandara be re-appointed as the Minister of Law and Order, a portfolio currently held by the President. Hashim told the President they were not expecting an immediate response from him. Hence, he said, he could consider the matter whilst he is in the Philippines and make his decision known when he returned.

UNPers were hopeful that their request would be heeded but sources close to the Presidency said it was “highly unlikely.” At the same meeting, Samarawickema told Sirisena that he was willing to quit his own portfolio if the President would consider Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka for a ministerial appointment. “He has criticized me viciously even a few days ago,” he replied declaring that “I will not appoint him.” He warned that if Fonseka continues to abuse him in the most foul language, he would not hesitate to strip him of his rank as Field Marshal. He urged the UNP trio to convey this message to the former military strongman. Sirisena elevated Fonseka to that highest military rank for supporting him at the 2015 presidential elections. It was a quid pro quo as reported in these columns then.

Now, the new won glory of the UNP, that heads the UNF, is slowly but surely chipping away. That the main cause is one of their strongest allies, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). If they were a passive supporter of the government in the past four years, their 14 MPs, in an unexpected move, extended support in Parliament for  Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe. This helped him receive a majority of over 113 in a 225 member House. The results for the TNA – particularly for its front runners Rajavarothayam Sampanthan and Abraham Sumanthiran – is one of falling badly between two stools. The first casualty was Sampanthan who lost his office as Leader of the Opposition.

Second was Sumanthiran who proudly boasted from public platforms that a new draft Constitution would be tabled in Parliament before February 4 – Sri Lanka’s 71 independence anniversary. At least officially what was tabled has been labelled as only “reports” though it contained  a comprehensive 151 page draft Constitution. It is no secret that TNA’s passive but yet strong support for the UNP is in return for their demands on behalf of the Tamil people they represent. It is also known that a new Constitution, which they are seeking with more devolution, was the subject of discussion between the TNA and the UNP around the time the latter was seeking their support in Parliament for Wickremesinghe’s Premiership. The TNA backed the UNF government to introduce laws to postpone Provincial Council elections. As a result, some of these councils are not functioning raising serious issues over whether they have ceased to become instruments to share power. More so when these councils were set up at their own behest.The TNA is hurt but helpless.

Yet, Sumanthiran has declared that there is still hope. Like the vast majority in their own vote base in the north and east, the alliance had banked on the UNP for a new Constitution. They believed it was only Wickremesinghe who could deliver it to them. The Rajapaksas are not popular in their own areas and remain largely a bad name. Thus, the alliance has no option but pressure the UNP to win whatever they could ahead of elections and plead to their electorate to wait for more time. Their moves to have Mahinda Rajapaksa to commit publicly to promises after he took over as Premier did not materialise denying them any other option.

The TNA is unable to go public and explain to their electorates their sad plight.With the growing unlikelihood of a new Constitution being adopted, their worry is about the future of the Steering Committee as well as the Constitutional Assembly. The Joint Opposition appears to have got a strong handle to oppose the “reports” presented in Parliament. Though it is described as a product of the “experts panel,” they alleged that it was formulated by TNA’s Sumanthiran, a lawyer with UNP’s “Constitutional Advisor” Jayampathy Wickremeratne, also a lawyer. The latter was earlier a member of the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP).

“We know the duo was responsible since most experts were not in favour of what was produced,” said “JO” leader in Parliament, Dinesh Gunawardena. He re-iterated that their action was contrary to the assurance Prime Minister Wickremesinghe had given that the Steering Committee would examine proposals for a Constitution which would thereafter be formulated by the Constitutional Council. “Eventually, an entire draft had been hurriedly rushed in,” he told the Sunday Times. Why then is the hurry, he asked and added that “we are opposed to more funds being spent on this futile exercise that lacks transparency.” SLPP de facto leader Mahinda Rajapaksa told the Sunday Times “the UNP has no mandate to present this draft Constitution. TNA’s Sumanthiran is running the government and the UNP. He has even said he can bring down this government at any time.”

The prelates of the Malwatte Chapter Most Venerable Tibbotuwawe Sri Siddharatha Sumangala Thera and the Asgiriya Chapter Most Venerable Warakagoda Sri Gnanaratna Thera have also expressed concerns.The Sunday Times learnt that a senior influential UNP leader assured them that the draft constitution would not be passed in that format and no decision has yet been reached on its contents.  On Friday, a UNP delegation led by Minister Lakshman Kiriella met the two prelates and briefed them on “the reports” tabled at the Constitutional Assembly. They told them that no draft Constitution has been formulated yet and what has been tabled was only “reports.” They also acknowledged that in any case the government did not have two thirds majority in Parliament to pass  a new constitution.

Sections of the Buddhist clergy have already launched protests or are making strong statements which could pave the way for a polarisation of minority communities during an election. This is when one looks the rising propaganda pitch. A counter move by sections of the government, backed by their passive partners as well as NGOs supporting them, to force the media to play down  coverage of those matters misfired badly. The excersie took the character of an operation to intimidate the media. Known associates of UNF politicians were present wearing black cloth to cover their faces. This is at a time when there is some reluctance on the part of even the UNF for a stepped up media campaign for fear of unpopularity in the south.

There was also a snub of sorts to the TNA when Premier Wickremesinghe told the Constitutional Assembly on January 11 that his United National Party will not allow  any amendments to the Second Article of the Constitution which affirms that the Republic of Sri Lanka will be a unitary state. He also said that similarly he would also not allow any amendments to Article 9 which says that Buddhism be given its foremost place.

The 151 page draft constitution had worded it differently. It says “Sri Lanka (Ceylon) is a free, sovereign and independent Republic which is an aekiya rajyaya / orumiththa nadu, consisting of the institutions of the Centre and of the Provinces which shall exercise power as laid down in the Constitution.

“In this Article aekiya rajyaya / orumiththa nadu means a state which is undivided and indivisible, and in which the power to amend the Constitution, or to repeal and replace the Constitution, shall remain with the Legislature and the People of Sri Lanka as provided in this Constitution.”

However, with regard to Buddhism, it states “Sri Lanka shall give to Buddhism the foremost place and accordingly it shall be the duty of the State to protect and foster the Buddha Sasana, while treating all religions and beliefs with honour and dignity, and without discrimination, and guaranteeing to all persons the fundamental rights guaranteed by the Constitution.”

Adding to the UNP woes was a new blow President Sirisena delivered this week. It seemed the beginning of an exercise to destroy the UNP’s credibility and the public confidence that remains ahead of elections. Before leaving for Philippines, he had in consultation with his close legal advisors, finalised arrangements to establish a “Presidential Commission of Inquiry” in essence to probe the UNF Government’s reign from 2015 to 2018. Though a Gazette notification has still not been released, an announcement from the President’s Media Division had this to say in their own English and their own arithmetical calculations:

“……. President Maithripala Sirisena has appointed a Presidential Commission of inquiry to investigate into the acts of corruption and frauds that have been alleged committed in state institutions during the period from January 15, 2015 to December 31, 2018.

“The responsibility of this Presidential Commission is to summon public complaints, information and other details and to swiftly conduct impartial and comprehensive investigation into allegations against individuals who held or remain in political positions as well as against the public servants and officers of the statutory boards, who held or remain in those positions, regarding serious losses or damage caused to state assets and revenue as a result of the acts of corruption, frauds and criminal breach of trust, criminal misappropriation of property, cheating and abuse of power or authority, state resources and privileges, committed by those individuals during the period from January 15, 2015 to December 31, 2018 at the state institutions. The Commission also identifies persons who were responsible or those who are currently responsible in accordance with the regulations and laws and to collect evidence on those offences or acts.

“Retired Supreme Court Judge Upali Abeyrathne was appointed as the Chairmen of this Presidential Commission and other members are retired High Court Judge Sarojani Kusala Weerawardhana, retired Auditor General Pasdun Korale Arachchige Premathilake, retired Ministry Secretary Lalith.R.De Silva and retired Deputy Inspector General of Police M.K.D. Wijaya Amarasighe.

“Instructions are made to handover the first report within three months, the final report composed of conclusions and illustrations within six months to President Maithripala Sirisena. 62,50,000 lacks of people of this country voted Maithripala Sirisena on 8th of January 2018 in order eradicate fraud and corruption in the country. President Sirisena who took steps for that within his tenure has taken another step for this objective by establishing this commission. This will enable to make the theme, ‘A Sri Lanka without corruption,’ a reality.”

To the UNP led United National Front (UNF), one need hardly say, the move will come as a major blow. President Sirisena, who has vowed to fight bribery and corruption this year his priority, has placed a deadline of three months for the Commission’s Interim Report and six months for its complete findings. One need hardly point out that such findings would impact on the UNP during election time. These factors are without taking into consideration the internal squabbles within the UNP and the battle by sections within to seek a new presidential candidate.

Mounting a heavy assault on the UNF albeit the UNP has its own ramifications. President Sirisena is the head of that government and chairs meetings of the cabinet of ministers. The accountability factor in this instance flows from the President downwards. Therefore, it reflects the absence of a very essential element – the need for checks and balances – during four years of Presidency.  Of course, President Sirisena has given some form of explanation that he bore many things under Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s regime to show his gratitude for making him President. Hence, he had chosen then to ignore them.

And now, he has decided to bring such actions and others under a microscope. Not that bribery and corruption under any regime should not be probed. It should and must be done no matter who is involved. Not surprisingly, the UNP is also busy preparing their own counter measures. Researchers are busy and that may set the ground for a slanging match. These, if they go ahead, could also could widen the gulf between President Sirisena and the UNF.

However, there was also a paradox at the same time. When Sirisena was away on the state visit, his Co-ordinating Secretary Shiral Lakthilaka met Prime Minister Wickremesinghe for a 30-minute meeting on January 12 (Saturday) afternoon at Temple Trees. A source close to the presidency said the meeting was the outcome of a study carried out by presidential staff on how and why relations between President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe broke down. One of the main findings was the absence of any engagement between the duo.

Instead of depending on his new advisors from the UNP, President Sirisena had sent one of his own. “Premier Wickremesinghe did admit to some of the fault lines but defended his position on others the President has been told,” said the sources. However, Lakthilaka declined comment saying he did not wish to talk on “confidential matters” and added“I can only confirm the meeting.” The question is whether Sirisena, or for that matter, Wickremesinghe, or both would now mend their ways just when they are taking concretised positions on several issues that have heightened the acrimony between the two.

Yet, the UNP position was defended by their Chairman Kabir Hashim. He told the Sunday Times “we are preparing ourselves for any eventuality. We re setting up a team to prepare for national level elections (meaning the presidential and parliamentary). This team will handle all our campaign. We are also setting up mechanisms to reach out to the grassroots level. Going along with the SLFP for nearly four years have caused us both social and political problems. We will agree on a Constitution on consensus reached by all concerned. Sadly, the Rajapaksa clan with others are making this a racist issue. We want to abolish the Executive Presidency in keeping with the pledge we made to the country and the late Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha Thera.”

Adding to that is another factor unknown to most Sri Lankans. President Sirisena is leaning heavily on Mahinda Rajapaksa, the de facto Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) leader to forge an electoral alliance. That he hopes would make him the presidential candidate of both the SLFP and the SLPP. In a move that appeared to appease Rajapaksa, Sirisena spoke to him on the telephone just ahead of his state visit to the Philippines. He asked him to nominate three SLPP parliamentarians to accompany him.He asked that their passports be sent to his office. What turned out was acute embarrassment for both Sirisena and Rajapaksa.

The first three nominated by the former President though their names are not clear changed their mind. Their passports were sent but they chose not to travel. They had been persuaded by their colleagues not to go. Another three were named thereafter. The wife of one of them said “Moley nedda? Naa Ganna epa” or don’t you have a brain? Don’t bathe yourself – a colloquial Sinhala way of saying not to be ridiculed.  The other two also backed out later. Thus, Sirisena was able to take along with him only a group of SLFP parliamentarians, who are technically now in the opposition, on an all expenses paid holiday. He was one of those strongly critical when his predecessor Rajapaksa took a large number of MPs and others to New York for the United Nations sessions. There was none from his ruling UNF government either. This time Sirisena chose not to ask media representatives to accompany him.

These notwithstanding, as revealed last week, there is still a very slim chance of Sirisena being successful in forming an electoral alliance with the SLPP and thus becoming a joint candidate with the SLFP at the presidential election. Though he is now constitutionally empowered to call for a presidential election, the exercise appeared to hinge very much on how the SLPP would react. If they had agreed on the name already, the SLPP is not only insisting on 51 per cent of the stake in the joint board of management of a new alliance, but also their Pohottuwa (budding lotus flower) as their joint symbol. That will mean hard bargaining for Sirisena or a virtual surrender of the SLFP. The Sunday Times learns that a meeting between Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa over the electoral alliance is likely. As revealed in these columns last week, Sirisena took the initiative to revive the talks due to a delay after the previous round.

Yet, Rajapaksa is coming under heavy pressure from seniors in his party over both the electoral alliance and Sirisena’s candidature. Views opposing the move were being aired by SLPP members prompting suspicions that they were voicing the views of the leadership. Asked for his comments, Mahinda Rajapaksa told the Sunday Times “we have to select the person who can win.”

His remarks came as his brother and former Defence Secretary, Gotabaya Rajapaksa told a meeting of Viyath Maga, a group of professionals, that “I am ready if you are.” He was alluding to the presidential elections. The remarks received wide publicity and was interpreted by sections of the media as Gotabaya Rajapaksa announcing his candidature. He had made similar remarks earlier too. However, this time, when he was abroad he had spent time in Washington DC than in Los Angeles where he had been living as a US citizen. His close associates said he had already handed in his application to renounce his US citizenship and was now awaiting confirmation. Just a day after his remarks, elder brother Chamal Rajapaksa also declared he was willing to come forward as a presidential candidate.

The Sunday Times asked Mahinda Rajapaksa for his response, This is how the conversation went.

The Sunday Times: Your brothers, both Gotabaya and Chamal have announced their availability as likely candidates for the presidential elections. What is your party’s position?

Rajapaksa: We have still not decided. We will wait. Everyone can canvass. Of course we have to select someone who will be a winner.

The Sunday Times: When will your party decide? When do you hope to make the announcement?

Rajapaksa: We will do so after the United National Party (UNP) announces their own candidate.

With prospects of a parliamentary election uncertain with the UNP not in favour until its development programmes reach fruition and a presidential election hinging on an SLFP deal with the SLPP, President Sirisena has opted for the next choice – conduct provincial council elections. He asked a meeting of former SLFP organisers to prepare themselves for PC polls. He even met the former organisers province by province to urge them to prepare the party machinery.

Last Friday, the SLFP acting General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera told a news conference there was a need to hold these elections since they have been delayed for over a year and four months.

The first PC whose term lapsed was the Sabaragamuwa on September  27, 2017. The others were East on October 1, 2017, North Central on October 2, 2017, Central on October 9, 2018,  North Western on October 10, 2018 and the  North on October 25, 2018. The terms of  other councils – South will lapse on April 22 and Uva on October 19. West and South on April 22 and Uva on October 9.

Jayasekera said the provincial councils are not meeting anymore. As a result the Councils where the terms had lapsed are run by the respective Governors. The Secretaries of Ministries have to get Governors approval for expenditures carried out by the PC Ministries and therefore problems have risen within the provincial council system”

Jayasekera added: “During the debate held on August 24 2018, Minister Lakshman  Kiriella told that if the election to be held according to the new system it will take one and a half years.This action is being delayed from some time the Minister who tabled the Delimitation Committee report voted against in parliament. A review committee was appointed on August 28, 2018. That committee’s recommendation was expected in two months but even though many months have passed they have not submitted their recommendations.

“We can see this delay as an action of the UNF Government. They are doing everything in their power to delay the elections. We (SLFP) can clearly tell the government to at least to bring the cabinet paper that we approved on 13 November 2018.”

The subject of PC elections also figured at a meeting which Mahinda Deshapriya held with representatives of political parties. It was to ascertain their views on how to conduct these polls particularly in the light of the all important question – under which system of elections would it take place. The previous one was on a proportional representation system. However, what has been proposed now and not finalised is a mixed system where 40 per cent are elected on a first past the post basis or those elected by a majority. Details related to the proposed system remain to be finalised and would have to be voted into law by Parliament. In the light of the urgency, both the SLFP and the SLPP are now in favour of going back to the old system of proportional representation. The question is whether the UNP would agree. A bad defeat for them, ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections, may come as a deterrent.

In all this, there are tough challenges for both President Sirisena and Premier Wickremesinghe. Of course they are for different reasons. Sirisena sacked his own government and they are now back in his fold though his relations remain in at a low ebb. His SLFP parliamentarians are now looking for a “make or break” meeting with him to decide their own future. He has become increasingly dependent on Mahinda Rajapaksa to ensure his political future and candidacy at the next presidential elections. This is whilst the SLFP is at their weakest. The crisis he set in motion last October, like the eye of a storm, is still developing.

For Premier Wickremesinghe, the cumulative effect of insulating himself with selected friends and running a government, has become the costliest. He had made enemies of most media that were, ironic enough, friendly towards him. His coterie of friends exploited his confidence resorting to bribery and corruption or were grossly unpopular with the people due to their conduct. Some shades  of goings on before Sirisena’s “October Revolution” are reflected even when he picked a new Cabinet. If they were butter on two slices of bread for a sandwich, the filling is coming in the form of newer problems – a brand new Constitution at the behest of TNA, a rapidly deteriorating economy, public discontent and an exasperated private sector to name a few. The UNF would have to stomach all this and moreto regain public confidence that turns into votes.With the growing literacy of voters, moneyalone is not going to victory at  an election campaign.