Sunday Times 2
Political farce in presidential stakes
Mahinda Rajapaksa appears to entertain the view that history begins as a farce and will repeat itself as a utopia. How history will manifest itself under his guidance is to be seen, but he is setting out on his task of making history — second attempt — in truly farcical style. This is somewhat different to the observation of Karl Marx that history first repeats as a tragedy and ends in a farce. Marx’s reference was to the rise and fall of the Napoleonic Empire. Rajapaksa is concerned with the attempted second rise of a so-called Rajapaksa dynasty after the great fall of 2015.
Rajapaksa has been entrusted with the leadership of the opposition coalition, the newly formed Pohottuwa, to make it the future political machine of governing Sri Lanka, the first task being to choose the presidential candidate for the next election. This supposedly democratic body has given him unrestrained power in naming the candidate of his choice. But he is not naming anyone. He is being coy and says the choice would be made ‘when the time comes’.
At first, the choice appeared to be a game of musical chairs between three Rajapaksa brothers: Chamal (CR), Gota (GR) and Basil (BR) with their names being mentioned and no objections being made. Then GR declared: “I am ready if the people are ready”, followed immediately by CR: “I am also ready”. BR maintained a stony silence till he came back two weeks ago, with a flourish.
The former president in recent weeks has been on a political stage enacting what he thinks the gullible public will consider to be real. He is in a happy situation, with the coalition comprising an assorted mix of Bandaranaike Socialists, former fire-eating Marxists, pro-Moscow Communists, riff-raff from break-away parties and defeated candidates at the last elections, all clinging on to the Rajapaksa ‘Satakaya’.
These are the initial scenes in this drama. There are many other acts to follow.
A significant act was when the Mahinda Rajapaksa-Maithripala Sirisena coup was staged and Ranil Wickremesinghe was sacked. It was understood that Sirisena would be the presidential candidate — a quid pro quo, for Mahinda being made prime minister. But, as they say, ‘All the best laid plans of mice and men go awry’ and the Supreme Court ruled the ‘coup’ to be unconstitutional. Then Ranil was back in the saddle and Sirisena prostrate, groping on the grass track. But Sirisena can’t be counted out in the presidential stakes because if he decides to run on his own he could gather some vital votes that could decide the photo-finish on which the presidential stakes are usually decided.
So in comes Basil in the next act. He has not declared himself as a runner—at least not yet — but as a racing steward protecting the laws of the game and proclaims that runners in the presidential stakes representing the Pohottuwa, should only be from the Pohottuwa stables not outsiders, knocking out Sirisena from the SLFP out of the Pohottuwa list.
But as stated above, Sirisena cannot be simply scratched off the card.
What if he runs from the SLFP stables and draws even a fraction of votes away, so essential for Pohottuwa in the neck-and-neck finish with the UNP in the President’s stakes?
Sirisena has to be kicked out, but it has to be done gently. Haven’t the Rajapaksas learnt lessons about Sirisena’s previous desire to be the premier? Speak-softly-and-carry-a-big-stick, Rajapaksa appears to have been advised.
So, Mahinda the Big Chief arranges a Pohottuwa pow-wow at the G.L. Peiris residence down the recently renamed Bernard Soysa Mawatha. The issue of the presidential candidacy is to be thrashed out and decided on in the presence of the conscientious objector Basil Rajapaksa. They wait and wait for hours but Basil does not turn up even at 10pm. “It looks like Basil won’t come,” says Mahinda and calls it a day.
To very many of those who have observed Rajapaksas in action, this is all play — acting. Can the all-powerful ‘Aiya’ — the patriarch, though not the eldest, but twice president of the country — be treated in this manner by a ‘malli’ and kept waiting for hours? What would his standing among the ‘Pohottuwa’ minions be? Has the tempestuous Mahinda Rajapaksa ever stomached such effrontery?
Is this presidential stakes within the Pohottuwa a political farce staged by Mahinda Rajapaksa for a purpose he knows best?
Mahinda Rajapaksa seems to enjoy the resulting chaos and confusion. Elder brother Chamal is now not considered a serious contender in political circles and appears to be fading away. Thus it could be two Sri Lankan-Americans in the fray (both GR and BR being dual American-Sri Lankan citizens). They have to cease to be Americans first, if they seek to be a Sri Lankan president.
Another factor to be considered is the sudden quakes in Lanka’s political firmament with shifting political tectonic plates. This could possibly making Mahinda nervous about making a decision on the presidential candidate just as yet. There is also the remote possibility of a ‘Constitutional Jilmart’ — a sudden mass crossover which can make possible a two-thirds majority. And with a two-thirds majority anything is possible with a constitution such as abolishing the two-term limit on the presidency. And hey presto! Mahinda Rajapaksa could run for president and be even president for life!
“Which of these are possible?” we asked insiders in the UNP, the SLFP, the JVP, the GMOA, the TWDU (Three Wheeler Drivers Union) and the literati. All declined to comment except a literati recuperating after the Galle Literary Fest: ‘All the world’s a stage and all men and women are merely players…,” he yawned. We asked him to go to hell. We’ve heard that before in school.