Resilience of a nation
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At a Colombo office, a Chairman addresses his fellow directors and staff and talks about unity, peace and understanding and that Sri Lanka will succeed only if there is equality, unity and understanding amongst all communities. At the end of a moving pep talk, the group takes an oath of allegiance or unity pledge.At a hotel outside Colombo, the same pledge is read by the staff, while similar events take place across the city and outside in many offices and other establishments.
This was soon after 300 representatives of businesses who are members of nine chambers including the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce gathered in Colombo at the Cinnamon Grand – one of the hotels affected by the Easter Sunday bombings – on May 21, exactly one month after the crisis, and read the unity pledge.
The pledge was as follows: “We members of the business community hereby pledge to work towards building a united Sri Lanka in which our people can live and work together in unity, in peace and in harmony, irrespective of differences in religion and ethnicity; to acknowledge the diversity within us and treat each other with respect at work and in the community, and we will, together, forge a true Sri Lankan identity and thereby restore Sri Lanka as a peaceful nation.”
The event meant to soothe a fractured nation was in many ways similar to a peace initiative in the late 1990s led by business leaders Ken Balendra and Lalith Kotelawela during conflict times.
As I sit down to put my thoughts on the computer, I look out of the window and see Kussi Amma Sera, Serapina and Mabel Rasthiyadu at their favourite spot – under the Margosa tree – in animated conversation. Here are snatches of that conversation:
“Oyage putha-ge rassava kohomada (How is your son’s job)?” “Kussi Amma Sera asks Mabel Rasthiyadu whose son works in a hotel in Bentota. “Eya thavamath weda karanawa, deiyanta isthuthiwenna (He’s still employed, thank God),” Mabel Rasthiyadu says.
“Eka hondai, mokada samahara kontrat hotel sevakayange raksha nethiwela (That’s good because some contract hotel workers have lost their jobs ),” interjects Serapina. The trio then engages in a long conversation on the crisis that has befallen Sri Lanka.
As I turn back to my computer on this gloomy morning, the phone rings. It’s Arthika, my nonsensical economist friend, wanting to discuss the country’s economic affairs vis-à-vis the crisis.
“I say … I believe Sri Lanka’s economy will recover as we have done in the past during crisis situations,” says Arthika, for once making sense in a conversation.
“Yep … during the war years too there were ups and downs but economic growth recovered,” I said. “Yes the pattern then was one bad year was reciprocated with one good year,” he said.
He’s right. Economic growth suffered during the many crises that Sri Lanka faced over the past few decades but often bounced back due to its resilience. In 1971, during the JVP insurgency, GDP growth fell to 0.2 per cent from 4.3 per cent in 1970. It recovered to 3.2 per cent and 3.7 per cent in 1972 and 1973, respectively. When racial violence broke out in 1983, GDP was 5 per cent but sank to 1.5 per cent in 1987 when the Indo-Lanka peace accord was signed. After a few years of dismal growth the economy recovered to 6.2 and 6.9 per cent in 1990 and 1993, respectively.
In 2008, GDP was 6 per cent but fell to 3.5 per cent in 2009 during the time the war ended after heavy fighting in the first five months of the year. It rebounded to 8 per cent the following year and rose to an all-time high and a still-unbroken record of 8.4 per cent in 2011. Since then GDP growth has been on an uneven path: 2012 (6.3 per cent), 2013 (7.2), 2014 (5), 2015 (5), 2016 (4.5), 2017 (3.4) and 2018 (3.2). The economy, for the first time, contracted in 2001 when GDP or negative growth was recorded at – 1.5 per cent.
The war years were the time when conglomerates like John Keells Holdings and Aitken Spence spread their wings to the Maldives, India and West Asia, setting up hotels to make up for the downturn in their Sri Lanka hotel units. Jetwing Hotels, on the other hand, grew in size and stature during the war years, putting its faith in Sri Lanka’s resilience … the same faith shown by the unity pledge event on May 21.
This year economists say economic growth could lose 1-1.5 per cent growth from the targeted 3.6 per cent for 2019 due to the crisis but as reflected in this column today, is most likely to bounce back in 2020/2021.
While tourism is always the first sector to get affected in a local or global crisis, it is also quick to recover and in this case the industry is waiting and hopeful that the travel advisories by several countries including India, China, the US, Germany and the UK – Sri Lanka biggest source markets for tourists – warning their nationals to avoid non-essential travel to the country, would be lifted.
Hotels, similar to previous crises, are banking on locals filling the rooms at least during weekends to overcome the crisis in the short term. This happened during the Vesak, 3-day holiday weekend when several resorts were reportedly full helped by generous discounts amounting to as much as 60-70 per cent.
There has also been some support from Sri Lankans to help hotels during this crisis. “Let us all support our tourism industry by taking our vacations within Sri Lanka, cancelling our holidays overseas. In fact, given a choice let us all use local products and services enabling a rapid recovery from this unfortunate setback,” urged one Facebook post.
The hotel industry is hoping that the crisis would be over by the time of the winter arrivals season starting in November though it still won’t be as good as in the past. However, as one veteran hotel owner commented, the industry has had some good times in the decade since the war ended in May 2009 and made good profits during this period. Arrivals shot up to 2.3 million last year from less than 500,000 at the end of the conflict. “We shouldn’t grumble because we had a good 10-year run. Now we need to take stock of the situation, re-train staff and weather the crisis,” he said.
The industry has got some generous concessions from the government to delay payment of capital and interest on loans for one year but has been disappointed that a multi-million- rupee tourism promotion campaign in Sri Lanka’s key markets is yet to be approved by the Cabinet.
Sri Lankans have faced, often what seemed like insurmountable crises in the years after independence, like the JVP insurrection in 1971, the beginning of the ethnic conflict in 1983, the crisis precipitated by the 1987 Indo-Lanka peace accord when the JVP launched its second insurgency and the period leading to the end of the conflict in May 2009. The economy which suffered most also rebounded during these years, reflecting the Sri Lankan spirit of rising above such situations.
That spirit and resilience are still alive today and in that unity pledge on May 21, one month after the Easter Sunday disaster, lies the hope of a united community and country that, hopefully, leaves behind enmity and bitterness amongst communities and stays on a firm course and an upward economic path.
Kussi Amma Sera walks in with a second cup of tea that I had requested. “Lankavata puluvanda yatha thathvayata enna? (Will Sri Lanka recover?), she asks. “Mama ese balaporottu venava (I hope so),” I said.