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His term comes to an end on January 8, 2020. In a bid to hold office beyond this date, he was to seek a determination this week from the Supreme Court on when his term of office began. Earlier, President Sirisena was told by his advisors that his tenure should begin on May 15, 2015 — the day the Speaker signed his assent to the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. This amendment reduced the term of office of the President from six to five years.

Before leaving for London last Monday on a private visit for the graduation of his son Daham, he was informed that a previous determination he sought in 2018 from the Supreme Court (SC) had answered the issues he proposed to raise. Daham is graduating in Business Law (specialising in commercial contracts, law of international trade, contemporary issues in business and strategic management and corporate responsibility). Sirisena has been cautioned that the SC was highly unlikely to overturn its determination on the matter. Hence, he faced the prospects of an extended term being rejected. That could be seen as a political defeat or even humiliation. This is amidst many political debacles in the past weeks. So, the idea has been dropped. Here are just a handful of the recent setbacks he suffered:

Easter Sunday attacks

A three-member Committee he appointed to probe the Easter Sunday incidents, the Fort Chief Magistrate Lanka Jayaratne has opined, had no legal basis. As a result, and for many other reasons, she refused to remand the then Defence Secretary Hemasiri Fernando and suspended Police Chief Pujith Jayasundera. They were arrested by the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) on the instructions of Attorney General Dappula de Livera. Pointing out that she could not commit to remand anyone because someone wanted it, she observed that even the statements of the two had not been obtained.

Thus, for nearly three months after the Easter Sunday massacres, none of the key players has been brought to book. The Police, which is now under President Sirisena, has through their spokesperson, regularly overloaded the media with information on newer arrests, finds of caches of swords, knives and bomb-making material. The exercise gave the impression that they were moving at lightening speed. The proverbial mountain laboured to bring forth a mouse, but the Police are still unable to disclose to the public the kingpins of the IS backed extremist Muslim group or initiate court action. That all is not well within the CID in respect of the ongoing investigations is no secret in Police circles.

On the other hand, the United National Party (UNP)-led United National Front (UNF), which lobbied President Sirisena to bring the Police under it, failed. UNF, Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna members are now sitting on a Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) probing the Easter Sunday incidents. Though there is considerable public scepticism over its probe, there is little doubt the PSC will see to its conclusion. Its findings, when publicised, will lead to a lot of finger pointing. The next logical step, like in the case of the PSC on the Central Bank bond scandal, it would have to go to the Attorney General’s Department for legal action.

Thus, there will be two sets of reports — one from the Police and the other from the PSC — for the AG’s Department to discern. All this is over an incident that shook the world and left 268 dead and nearly 500 wounded.  Accountability is turning into a distant dream due to political skulduggery — one leader trying to blame the other.

Makandure Madush and drug war

It came as a boost to President Sirisena when the Police in Dubai arrested a drug baron who goes under the nom de guerre Makandure Madush. He was deported to Colombo after many weeks amidst widespread speculation that he was to reveal the names of the rich and the influential. That faded away. President Sirisena declared the re-introduction of the death penalty and signed a proclamation committing four drug convicts to gallows. It drew an avalanche of protests, both in Sri Lanka and abroad. Pending the hearing of fundamental rights petitions, the Supreme Court ordered a halt to executions until October 30, weeks before the deadline to hold the presidential election. That put paid to it.

Presidential term

One is not wrong in saying that President Sirisena is running out of time. The few reasons listed above and much more to be accomplished, prompted him to seek legal avenues for an extended term. Here is why it will not be possible:

On January 14, 2018, in a 12-page determination, a five-judge Supreme Court bench said: “The Supreme Court can review the legislation only during the pre-enactment stage. As the 19th Amendment to the Constitution has now become law, the Supreme Court has no power to inquire into the validity or the constitutionality of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution.”

The bench comprised then then Chief Justice Priyasath Dep, P.C. and Justice Eva Wanasundera, P.C., Justice B.P. Aluvihare, P.C., Justice K. Sisira de Abrew and Justice K.T. Chitrasiri. They considered a determination on whether in terms of Provisions of the Constitution, President Maithripala Sirisena, having assumed office on January 9, 2015, had any impediment to continue in the office of President for a period of six years. This was from January 9, 2015, the day his election to the office of the President was declared.

On January 8, 2018 the justices met in the chambers of the Chief Justice. They thereafter held public sittings on January 11.

The justices noted that consequent to the 19A, the question that would arise is whether reducing the President’s term to five years from six would apply to the incumbent President. This was because this President was elected to office prior to the coming into force of 19A — in other words whether the 19A is retrospective in effect, or not.

The justices said; “The 19th Amendment to the Constitution reduced both the term of the Parliament and the term of the President from six years to five years. In (49-1- a), it is stated that the seventh Parliament which was in existence prior to coming into operation of the Act (19A) unless dissolved earlier shall continue to function until April 21, 2016. Therefore, 7th Parliament could function for a term of six years. Whereas (section 49-1-b) dealing with President and Prime Minister, there is no mention of any date. But it states that the President and the Prime Minister hold office subject to the provisions of the Constitution as amended by this Act. Therefore, when (Article 30 of the Constitution) as amended is read with section (49-1-b) of the amending Act has retrospective effect. Accordingly, the aforesaid section applies to the incumbent President.”

The justices concluded that under the Constitution, Parliament has legislative power to enact laws having retrospective effect. Article 75 (of the Constitution) states that “Parliament shall have power to make laws, including laws having retrospective effect repealing or amending any provision of the Constitution, or adding any provision to the Constitution.”

The bench determined that “the question is whether or not Parliament could retrospectively reduce the period of the incumbent President. If it is so, any Government having a 2/3 majority by using the said majority could reduce the term of office of the incumbent President. The question that arises is whether after the enactment and the coming into force of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution the constitutional/validity of the articles/sections of the 19th Amendment could be challenged.

It adds: “In the Supreme Court Special Determination regarding the Bill titled 19th Amendment to the Constitution, clause 3 (dealing with the term of the President) pertaining to the amendment to Article 30 and clause (54-1-b) (Section 45-1-b) were not challenged. The Article 80 (1) of the Constitution states that subject to the provisions of paragraph (2) of this Article, a Bill passed by Parliament shall become law when the certificate of the Speaker is endorsed thereon. Therefore, the 19th Amendment became law when the Speaker certified the Bill on 15th May 2015. The Supreme Court can review the legislation only during the pre-enactment stage. As the 19th Amendment to the Constitution has now become law, Supreme Court has no power to inquire into the validity or the constitutionality of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution.”

The determination said 19A has retrospective effect and “applies to the incumbent President who was elected on 8th January 2015. He holds office for a term of five years.”

Other than the reasons listed, extended time for President Sirisena in his office is warranted by another major factor — to conduct a parliamentary general election before this year’s presidential poll. What contributed to this move largely is his desire to weaken his own Prime Minister and arch rival Ranil Wickremesinghe, the UNP leader. He believed the UNP would lose and that would trigger a leadership crisis where Wickremesinghe would be replaced. However, the UNP leader who has the majority of his backers in the Working Committee, the party’s policy making body, remains well ensconced and an ouster move would not be easy. Of course, in-fighting within the party over its presidential candidate is now escalating.

PC elections

In recent months, Sri Lankan politics is akin to a roulette wheel in a casino. When a ball is dropped to a numbered compartment no one knows where it comes to rest. Similarly, President Sirisena is turning this wheel and no one is certain where it will stop this time. A fair guess, particularly after a meeting with National Election Commission (NEC) Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya is the likelihood of Provincial Council elections. The jovial Deshapriya who uses his oft-repeated phrase Gordian Knot to underscore his difficult role has told the President that he would be able to hold the PC elections first and the presidential poll thereafter as scheduled. He has already set in motion instruction classes and other arrangements though the staff have not been told exactly what it is for.

Even the broader parameters have been discussed. One issue was the delimitation of wards. The report of the Committee tasked for this purpose is now before the Prime Minister for approval. Another is the adoption of a mixed electoral system — a percentage which is first-past-the-post and the rest through proportional representation. It has now been pointed out that the President could issue a Gazette notification giving effect to the previous delimitation and conduct PC polls on the previous proportional representation system. President Sirisena is learnt to have made clear he would convey his thoughts to NEC Chairman Deshapriya upon his return from the UK. His choice therefore is limited to either PC polls first or move towards a presidential election any time before December 8.

Chairman Deshapriya, who has threatened to resign, over the current polls imbroglio, also had a meeting with Premier Wickremesinghe and Speaker Karu Jayasuriya. It was agreed that they should meet President Sirisena upon his return. The President returned to Colombo yesterday. The matter figured briefly at Friday’s meeting of the Constitutional Council. Opposition Leader Rajapaksa added his voice to those of the Premier and that Speaker that Deshapriya should not quit. He urged the Speaker to convey his wish.

SLFP-SLPP alliance talks

Either way, polls fever is rising. The pace has been hastened by speculation that the PC polls would come first. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has redoubled its efforts to finalise a common alliance with the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) before August 11, the day the party holds its first annual convention. Ahead of this event, Mahinda Rajapaksa has called a meeting of partner leaders of opposition parties on August 10. He will first announce to them the SLPP’s presidential candidate. The SLPP annual convention is to be held the next day. Rajapaksa will also take over the leadership of the party. SLPP architect Basil Rajapaksa told guests at the engagement ceremony of Yoshitha (the second son of Mahinda Rajapaksa) on Friday that a large number of requests to become candidates for PC polls on the SLPP ticket were now coming in. They were from former PC members and those from other political parties, he said.

An instance which underscores the dilemma of the SLFP took place when President Sirisena paid a visit to Moneragala prior to his departure to Britain. A group of former PC members met him and one of them asked “Sir Mokada apey anagathaya” or Sir, what is our future. Unruffled by the remarks, he replied “Okkotama Issara, magey anagathaya balanna oney,” or first of all, I must look to my own future.” It triggered laughter.

The SLFP-SLPP talks have now centred on two main bodies the proposed alliance is to have — a Political Committee and an Executive Committee. The SLPP is seeking a larger share of the membership in these two bodies. Other issues include a symbol for the alliance. The SLPP is insistent on its Pohottuwa or the budding lotus flower. In the event of an inability to enter into a formal arrangement, the prospects of having an umbrella organisation like an earlier Samagi Peramuna or for that matter the Yahapalanaya alliance is also being spoken of. The talks have become a matter of much concern for the SLFP parliamentarians than their SLPP counterparts. Whilst a substantial number are still trying to push an accord, there are others who do not favour it and wish to join the UNP.

As previously explained, should President Sirisena and his SLFP decide to join in an alliance with the SLPP, there is absolutely no prospect of his becoming a joint presidential candidate.  Would it, therefore, mean he would be a one-time president as he pledged when he took office? The reasons are many. Despite utterances at news conferences by SLFP stalwarts that he would be their party’s presidential candidate, it is no secret that even their own political future remains uncertain. And Sirisena, whatever his weaknesses are over statecraft, knows only too well the grassroots level sentiments and that he cannot win on his own. Hence, rightly or wrongly, he has exhausted all his cards barring an option to hold PC polls or the presidential election on time. Even if he or the SLFP would not gain anything substantial through the PC polls, it will in great measure embolden the SLPP. That will propel the SLPP on a launching pad at the presidential election.

UNP’s problems

Of course, in a bid to cut off this impact, the UNF has already embarked on many a programme. A pay increase for the state sector and pensioners is among them. With a new generation of youth entering the voters register, money or material alone cannot go a long way. The UNF also has its lion’s share of setbacks and blunders besides uncontrolled corruption. Also uncertain to the UNP this time would be the Catholic vote, the result of its alleged ineptitude after the Easter Sunday incidents.

However, at the highest levels of the Catholic Church, UNP Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa has won considerable endorsement. So much so, a Catholic UNF minister telephoned the secretary of a leading prelate to seek reasons why such support is being extended. Speaking to them on the same occasion was UNP leader Premier Wickremesinghe and Speaker Karu Jayasuriya. What they talked is not known but the exercise reflects their concern.

A UNP faction has already launched a seemingly low-key campaign to make Premadasa the presidential candidate. A book launch by Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera in Matara last Sunday turned out to be baptism of sorts for Premadasa’s presidential candidature. Premadasa declared during a speech that he was now willing to serve the people 24 hours of the day and seven days a week. It is known that Minister Samaraweera is in favour of Premadasa’s candidature subject to Premier Wickremesinghe remaining as the leader of the UNP and continuing his role. The UNP constitution as it stands now, however, states that the President of the country will be the leader of the party. Some UNPers, including seniors who were confidantes of Wickremesinghe, have favoured the idea. Of course, Samaraweera has made clear that a final decision would have to be taken by the party.

On the other hand, also in the fray is Speaker Karu Jayasuriya. He is being backed by civil society groups. Minister Navin Dissanayake, (Jayasuriya’s son-in-law) has been making a strong pitch for him. Though Premadasa commands grassroots level support, Dissanayake told party backers that Jayasuriya was most acceptable by the Buddhist clergy. Moreover, he was also well known abroad and acceptable to a cross section of society, he added. It was last Monday that the Amarapura Nikaya conferred on him the title Sadhu Jana Prasadhini Lankaputhra “in appreciation of his valuable services to the country.” The widely publicised award ceremony was held at the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall (BMICH). Later in Parliament, Opposition Leader Rajapaksa congratulated him.

That Sajith Premadasa has burnt his boats with Premier Wickremesinghe is no secret. It was known that he was closely associated with President Sirisena in recent times. So much so, Sirisena was to reveal publicly that he had offered the post of Prime Minister to Premadasa on three different occasions but he declined it. Premadasa said he was offered the job much more than thrice. Once again, with the backing of a section of the ministers, he is very emboldened. Being ‘on’-sometimes-and-‘off’-again has been a facet of Premadasa, though he does count substantial support than all his contenders in the UNP.

Whether such a quality would bode well when a new President would have to take tough decisions for the sake of the country and the people is often debated. Another is the absence of his contribution in the form of speeches on national issues. Some of his own Cabinet colleagues have placed self-determined barriers on him saying he is not GCE qualified. To say the least, that is a very uncharitable. The qualified who make such accusations have only enriched themselves through surreptitious means. They now place standards taking the moral high ground.

Thus, with Premadasa out of favour, the billion-dollar question is whether Jayasuriya, will receive Premier Wickremesinghe’s endorsement. The Sunday Times has learnt through authoritative channels that Ranil Wickremesinghe still remains the presidential candidate. A source said last night, “until tonight he is set to be the UNP candidate and will be backed by an alliance of many parties.” Asked about Premadasa and Jayasuriya, who are tacitly staking their claims, the source replied “wait and see. The Working Committee (where Wickremesinghe loyalists are in the majority) and the parliamentary group will decide. The rest is politics. Anyone can stake their claims.”

With many weeks before the presidential election, whether this will continue to remain a ground reality is only a matter of conjecture. Last Thursday, a group of UNPers wanted to see their leader Wickremesinghe to obtain an assurance that Premadasa would be the candidate. This was before voting time on the no-confidence motion. They failed in their efforts, one of them said. However, the JVP motion of no-confidence on the government was defeated. The lacklustre debate saw quorum bells ring. Most opposition speakers vented their spleen on the JVP though the motion was against the government. UNP backbenchers asked the JVP why it did not bring a motion against the President and cartoonists had a field day drawing the JVP leaving a sinking ship (the Government). There were others among them who asked whether the motion was being brought to strengthen the government. Voting in favour of the motion were 92 members with 119 against and 13 absent.

Notwithstanding the ongoing political crisis, what has taken centre stage now is finger pointing — whether the Easter Sunday incidents were the result of inaction on the part of the President or the Prime Minister. Tragic enough, the people are waiting for answers on how it happened and whether it would happen again.