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The request for such a meeting came from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna responded favourably this week. The idea is to enable the two leaders to agree on the final contours of the proposed joint alliance – the Sri Lanka Nidahas Podujana Peramuna (SLNPP). The two parties during consultations have reached near consensus on a constitution as well as an Executive Committee at the managerial level. Such talks will also help President Sirisena chart his future political course after the presidential election.

President Sirisena, the SLFP leader being a party to a joint alliance with the SLPP by itself is confirmation that he would not contest the presidential election. The issue of a ‘joint candidate’ did not figure in the penultimate stages of the SLFP-SLPP talks. The SLPP has throughout made clear there was no slot for Sirisena. The focus, therefore, shifts to whether Sirisena would contest the parliamentary elections from the Polonnaruwa District and serve in a new Cabinet of Ministers. The prospects of urging the new alliance to field him during general elections with less formidable candidates are not ruled out.

OKKAMA RAJAWARU: Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna leader Mahinda Rajapaksa seen with leaders of small parties after he signed alliance agreements with them at his Wijerama Road office on Wednesday. Pic by Indika Handuwela

On Friday morning, smaller registered political parties not represented in Parliament signed individual MoUs with the SLPP to function under its aegis. They are: the Mawubima Janatha Party (Leader Hemakumara Nanayakkara), the Lanka Kamkaru Eksath Peramuna (Ceylon Workers United Front – Secretary S. Sathasivam), the Thamil Eksath Nidahas Peramuna (Tamil United Independent Front  -  leader Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan), the Elavar Democratic Party, (Leader – Saravanabhawan Dushyanthan), the Muslim Ulema Party (Leader Mubarak Abdul Majeed), the Liberal Party (Secretary  Kamal Nissanka), the Nawa Sihala Urumaya ( Secretary Sarath Manamendra), the Democratic National Movement (Secretary Aruna de Soysa), the Eksath Lanka Maha Sabahawa (Secretary Jayantha Kulatunga) and the Bhumiputhra Party (Secretary Sarath Wijeratne). Joint Opposition partner leaders were conspicuous by their absence at the signing event held at the official Wijerama residence of the Leader of the Opposition. Some had explained they would not be there due to other commitments.

Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa told the group that he believed “the government had put the country and the people in danger by bringing the controversial 19th Amendment. It has led the country towards a crisis. The government is planning to fool the international community again by talking about constitutional reforms.”

Therefore, he said, he was ready to form an alliance of “patriotic parties” to stop the UNP government’s attempt.  Thereafter, he would give the sole responsibility to amend the constitution to the alliance which would be voted to power.

In a separate speech during a debate on constitutional reforms in Parliament on Friday, Rajapaksa said, “The 19th Amendment has given rise to the present confusion as to whether power lies with the presidency or the Cabinet. When the then opposition expressed misgivings about the provisions of the 19th Amendment, the President came to Parliament and said that the 20th Amendment which would change the parliamentary elections system would be presented to Parliament in a matter of weeks. It was on that undertaking that the opposition MPs voted for the 19th Amendment.

“If the parliamentary elections system had been changed, Parliamentary governments would have had a working majority and the balance of power would have shifted to Parliament. Though our MPs had serious misgivings about the 19th Amendment, we voted for it on the promise that the 20th Amendment would be introduced in Parliament expeditiously. So, this government has cheated the opposition as well.” In making those remarks, Rajapaksa is making clear that constitutional reforms will be a priority if the opposition is voted to power.

Gotabaya the candidate

The proposed Sirisena-Rajapaksa dialogue underscores an important milestone for Sirisena who has ended four and half years as President.  He is likely to seek assurances from Rajapaksa on matters of importance arising from his tenure of office and the road ahead. Former President Rajapaksa will formally assume office as the SLPP leader at its first annual convention at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium on August 11. He will publicly announce his choice for the opposition’s presidential candidate thereafter. There will be no election of SLPP office bearers and those holding positions will remain. Just a day before, he will also make his choice known to JO partner leaders at a meeting at his official residence.

That the former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa will be the Joint Opposition candidate is now certain. He returned to Sri Lanka from Singapore on Tuesday night after recuperating from heart surgery. Opposition Leader Rajapaksa was keen to ensure there were no elaborate arrival ceremonies. Some had even suggested that he return during daytime on Wednesday so he could be taken in procession to Colombo after a grand welcome. The arrival was made low key because he had not yet been named officially.

Elaborate preparations are being made for his induction as presidential candidate. Soon after being named, Gotabaya is to take part in a religious ceremony at the Kelaniya Raja Maha Viharaya. Thereafter, he will travel in a motor vehicle parade to pay his respects at Sri Maha Bodhi in Anuradhapura. The next day, the same motorcade will arrive in Kandy. He will pay his respects at the Sri Dalada Maligawa and call on the Mahanayakes of the Asgiriya and Malwatte Chapters. From Kandy, the motorcade will proceed to Hambantota and Kataragama.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s proposed nomination lays to rest wild speculation, unbelievably even in quarters close to the Presidency and the United National Front (UNF) highest levels that it was Basil Rajapaksa who would be the presidential candidate. Claims were made that Basil Rajapaksa, who holds dual citizenship, had in fact renounced his US citizenship in preparation for his candidacy. Others speculated it would even be Shiranthi Rajapaksa, the former First Lady. Basil Rajapaksa, the architect of the SLPP, found himself in a tight spot when he made an hour-long speech to SLPP members on matters relating to the upcoming presidential election.

When he finished, a member got up to tell him that he listened to it carefully and he (Basil Rajapaksa) has not mentioned Gotabaya as the presidential candidate. He asked whether he did so because he did not like his brother. “Ehema kisima deyak nehe. Nilawashayen mama thawama danney nehe kavda apekshakaya kiyala. Eya Gotabaya nam, mama Mahinda aiyata wadaa haiyyen veda karanawa” (or there is nothing like that. Officially, I still do not know the candidate yet. If it is Gotabaya, I will work even harder than my brother Mahinda.” He also had a meeting with SLPP parliamentarians.  It included a power point presentation. Elder brother Chamal was also asked by reporters this week about the candidate, and his answer was the same “hari welawata kiyannam” (will let you know at the right time).

One of the worries for the organisers of the motorcade, where many vehicles will take part, is the periodic interruption of traffic. Party members have been advised to liaise with residents along the routes the motorcade will take to forewarn them. They have also been told to liaise with the police stations in their areas. The Sunday Times learnt that Gotabaya Rajapaksa has insisted that there should not be any banners or polythene used in his planned campaign.

Another oft repeated question about Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s nomination as presidential candidate is the renunciation of his US citizenship. Whilst some are hoping that he would receive his US Renunciation of Citizenship Certificate before nominations, there are others who argue that the Sri Lankan law does not lay down that such a certificate per se is required. An SLPP source familiar with the developments said he (Gotabaya) is in possession of adequate documentation to prove that he is no longer a US citizen. The source added “that was sufficient evidence” to confirm that he was only a Sri Lankan citizen now.

Sirisena as the candidate

For President Sirisena, who has reclined to the new realities, there are still issues. As revealed last week, he chose to drop a move to seek a determination from the Supreme Court on the conduct of Provincial Council elections ahead of a presidential poll. This came after his legal advisors opined that the prospects of such a determination would not be in his favour. Hence, he did not want that to add to his recent reversals like, for example, the re-imposition of the death penalty. Its enforcement has been put on hold after the Supreme Court, where the action is challenged through fundamental rights petitions, put off further hearings for October 1. That covers the period when there would be nominations for the presidential election.

The issue re-surfaced again, this time at the SLFP Central Committee meeting held at President Sirisena’s official residence at Mahagamsekera Mawatha on Wednesday night. Uva Province Chief Minister Chamara Sampath Dassanayake moved a resolution asking President Sirisena to conduct PC elections before the presidential poll. Uva is the last functioning PC (others have ended their terms) and its term will also cease on October 8. Therefore, he said, all PC polls could be held on the same day for all councils. It was backed by Peshala Jayaratne, a former Chief Minister of the North Central Province. It was unanimously adopted. United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) General Secretary Mahinda Amaraweera told a news conference on Wednesday President Sirisena would seek this SC determination by next week.

“This is not a covert move to put off the presidential election,” Ameraweera declared adding that “the SLFP is worried over PC polls being put off.” The Hambantota District parliamentarian is known for contradicting his own remarks made during previous media conferences. It was the government which delayed both the local council and the PC polls. The local polls were held in February last year after a string of protests by opposition parties, but the government passed legislation in Parliament to delay the PC polls.

As a result, most of the PCs have been functioning with no elected leadership raising serious questions whether they were necessary. If the PCs were set up to meet the demands of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), their members voted in Parliament together with the UNF to ensure polls are delayed.  Another is Ameraweera’s repeated remarks that Maithripala Sirisena would be the SLFP candidate. He was a signatory to a letter SLFP MPs gave to President Sirisena declaring that he should their presidential candidate. The quid pro quo, a public statement that was accepting it, however, never came. Amaraweera continued to insist Sirisena would contest the presidential election.

Ameraweera’s remarks nevertheless underscore an interesting feature. This time, even if he is to receive a determination from the Supreme Court, which is unfavourable, Sirisena could say that it was not his own but a SLFP request through him. It is only the President who is entitled to seek a determination on the Constitution from the SC.  Yet, the underlying cause, Sirisena’s venomous animosity towards Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, has been highlighted by his initiative. He believes the PC polls would see a defeat for the UNP and would lead to a leadership crisis ending in Wickremesinghe’s ouster before the presidential poll. UNP thinking is that Sirisena is trying to fast forward an alliance with the Rajapaksa camp by calling for an election before the presidential poll, or with it. However, the thinking in highly placed opposition circles is that they were not too enthusiastic about an early PC polls for several reasons. The main one is in the event of a spiral in violence during the polls campaign. They fear that such a move would give a handle to the President to put off the presidential election on the grounds that security conditions are not suitable. Funny enough, no matter forming a joint alliance, but a crisis over Sirisena’s credibility does exist. So much so, they are planning for what they fear.

Riven by internal divisions, there will also be a test of popularity for the SLFP when it holds its annual convention on September 2. The Central Committee decided that each member should bring at least two busloads of SLFPers to the event to demonstrate that the SLFP is still a strong political force. Perhaps at no time before has the party been inflicted with a crisis as it faces now. The count of SLFP MPs wanting to join the UNP has now increased to three. In what seems an interesting development, they may insist on joining the UNP-led alliance as SLFPers — a move that would give organisers the right to claim they are representative of all political parties. More on that later. Some SLFPers want to directly join the SLPP whilst others remain undecided.

Gazette on delimitation report

In the Parliament lobby on Friday, the talking point among most MPs was about a Gazette notification President Sirisena was to issue. That was to formally gazette the Delimitation Commission Report, already rejected by Parliament, to facilitate the conduct of PC polls. That was touted as an alternative to seeking a determination from the Supreme Court. However, sources close to the Presidency said that Sirisena had been advised that it was legally not possible and would again place him on a confrontation course with Parliament. Hence, the matter was not pursued, these sources said.

SLPP architect Basil Rajapaksa told the Sunday Times, “We are ready if a PC poll is thrust on us. It will depend on what the Supreme Court will determine. At present, Parliament has rejected the Delimitation Commission Report. The Speaker has appointed a five-member committee to study the document and report to him. It has not happened so far. The question is whether PC polls should be held on the previous Proportional Representation system or the proposed 50 percent first-past-the-post and the rest on PR. How the SC will look at this and how it will determine the issue has to be seen.”

He added, “Our official position is that once we are elected to power, we will introduce amendments to the PC laws. Thereafter, we will conduct the elections to enable these councils to function”. His remarks also express a degree of scepticism on the likelihood of earlier PC polls. Yet, the practicality of such polls, has been confirmed by the Chairman of the National Election Commission (NEC). He has declared publicly that PC polls could be held before a presidential poll, both this year. Not surprisingly though, the NEC has come under substantial criticism for delaying the PC polls by two years and now applying high pressure on the Presidency to conduct them. The NEC, in turn, blames the government. An NEC official who did not wish to be identified accused the UNF of resorting to “delaying tactics” to put off PC polls. At that time, the official said, the UNF had the blessings of President Sirisena. “They want to make us the scapegoats now,” he added.

According to NEC chairman Mahinda Deshapriya, in terms of election laws, the date on which the presidential election should be held is after November 9 and before December 9 this year. However, the practicable dates would be between November 15 and December 7, since the polls would have to be conducted on a Saturday. Nominations for such an election, he has said, should be between September 20 and October 15.

UNF’s candidate

With the main opposition’s candidate now virtually known, the spotlight shifts to who the contender would be from the ruling UNP-led United National Front (UNF). Firstly, the UNP is now busy forming a broader alliance — a National Democratic Front (NDF). The prospective NDF candidate, a position vied for by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, will contest under a symbol to be given by the National Election Commission and not the UNP’s Elephant. Nor will it be the Hansaya (swan) which the UNF used to get Sirisena elected in January 2015. Important enough, the birth of the NDF will be on August 5 when the UNP’s annual convention takes place at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium. Ministers Akila Viraj Kariyawasam and Rajitha Senaratne have been given the responsibility of planning the event where partner leaders of the UNF and newcomers will be present.

At present, the UNF comprises the United National Party (UNP), the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), the Democratic People’s Front (DPF), the National Union of Workers (NUW), the Democratic National Alliance and the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU). In addition, the Movement for Social Justice also is a party to the UNF arrangement. In addition, three SLFP MPs who propose to join the NDF are to be listed under their own party thus giving the proposed new NDF alliance a broader representative character. They will, however, face expulsion from their party. The NDF will be headed by UNP leader Wickremesinghe and moves are afoot to set up a Leadership Council to govern its affairs.

Even before the formation of an NDF, divisions surfaced within the UNF during its parliamentary group meeting on Monday. Interesting enough, it was Minister Kabir Hashim who raised issue pointing to the front-page report in the Sunday Times last week. It said, “A new political and civil society alliance, headed by United National Party (UNP) leader and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, will be formally announced on August 5 in preparation for the upcoming presidential election.

“For this purpose, a meeting will take place at the Sugathadasa Stadium and initially comprise the UNP and its current United National Front constituent partners — the Jathika Hela Urumaya, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, the All Ceylon Makkal Congress, the National Union of Workers, United Left Front and the Democratic People’s Front. Ministers Rajitha Senaratne and Arjuna Ranatunga are also expected to join this alliance which will initially draft and announce a common policy declaration. This will form the basis of a Memorandum of Understanding between the partners of the alliance.”

Minister Hashim, referring to this report, claimed he was not made aware of the August 5 event although he was the Chairman of the UNP. Strange indeed are his ways. After the Easter Sunday April 21 massacres, he resigned his ministerial portfolio together with his three Muslim Cabinet colleagues — Rauf Hakeem, Rashad Bathiuddin and Abdul Haleem. Later, in a secret deal worked out without the knowledge of his leader Wickremesinghe, or his senior party colleagues, he returned to the fold of the Cabinet after being sworn in by President Sirisena.  Joining in this exercise was also Minister Haleem though he claimed he had told Wickremesinghe. The Premier told his confidants that neither Hashim nor Haleem informed him that they were leaving behind their colleagues and taking over portfolios after backchannel negotiations. He said he was most disappointed with Hashim since he was Chairman of the UNP and a former General Secretary. He was duty bound to keep him informed, he said.

Now, Hashim complained that he was unaware of the formation of a new alliance. Though he was not against such a move, he could not agree with the way the event has been arranged. He said that they should select the presidential candidate. Though Premier Wickremesinghe was a good leader of the party, he said, Sajith Premadasa (deputy leader of the UNP) was sought after by most. That included the rural community. He said by picking Premadasa as the presidential candidate, they should demonstrate their strength.

State Minister Ajith Perera and Harsha de Silva endorsed Hashim’s views. Perera also expressed scepticism over small parties that would try to control the alliance. Perera who had waxed eloquent on fake news, had later posted on his Facebook that it had been decided at the meeting to field Premadasa as the candidate. This, he claimed, was because no other names were proposed at the UNF parliamentary group meeting.

Premier Wickremesinghe noted that the call that is being made was not a new thing. Since December last year, discussions had gone on. He said, “We should have a democratic Leadership Council (for the National Democratic Front). An unidentified voice shouted “why does it not apply to the UNP.” Wickremesinghe remained silent. Endorsing Premadasa was Minister Harin Fernando. State Minister Eran Wickremeratne called for the re-structuring of the party and declared “we need new faces.” He also said they needed to win over minority communities and civil society groups. He said a Sajith Premadasa-Karu Jayasuriya combination should be considered. It also won the backing of former UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema.

Minister Thalatha Athukorale complained that her ministerial colleague Ravi Karunanayake was “tarnishing the image of the party.” She claimed that 90 percent of the group were in favour of Sajith Premadasa as the presidential candidate. Karunanayake was then just walking into the meeting. He had picked up Minister Athukorale’s complaint.

In a bid to defend himself, Karunanayake charged that Premadasa was toeing President Maithripala Sirisena’s line. By openly praising the President, he alleged, that Premadasa was pushing party MPs to the Mahinda Rajapaksa camp. Premadasa hit back. He said he was “always interacting with Sirisena very diplomatically.” He said Eya Apey Panthiye ekkenek” or he is a member of our class. If not for his own intervention, Premadasa claimed, Wickremesinghe would not have become Prime Minister again after the political issues that began in October last year. All this was possible because of his cordial relationship with President Sirisena, he argued. A voice pointed out that they should decide on a candidate at that meeting, but another said, “it will have to be decided by the NDF.” A third voice, however, said they cannot be allowed to decide for the UNP.

That saw the exchange of strong words. It took an ugly turn. Premadasa accused Karunanayake of financial improprieties when there were moves to canvass for SLFP parliamentarians to cross over to the UNP after the political crisis in October last year. The remarks saw Karunanayake accusing Premadasa of “hora salli achchu gahanawa” or printing counterfeit currency. He said he would also run to the media and bare the stories on Premadasa, Karunanayake threatened. An angry Premier Wickremesinghe shouted, “Don’t sling mud at each other. Stop this immediately.” He then hurriedly declared that “the meeting is now over.”

Ranil faces ormidable challenge

Last Monday’s episode, no doubt would be serious cause for concern for UNP leader Wickremesinghe. Sections of the party are attempting to get party branches to adopt resolutions that they need Premadasa as the presidential candidate. With that, they are trying to bring matters before the annual convention on August 5. Unlike previous controversies, the challenges faced by Wickremesinghe this time emanate from some senior members of the party. This week has seen Wickremesinghe being defended through news conferences at Temple Trees by junior backbench MPs. Thus, Wickremesinghe faces a very formidable challenge this time. He has survived many a leadership crisis within the party but the current one is no easy task for one reason. If he succeeds in becoming the presidential candidate, a division within the party will become inevitable.

Asked for his response on the situation, Minister Malik Samarawickrema, a former UNP Chairman and once widely regarded as a close confidant of Wickremesinghe, told the Sunday Times, “We will settle our issues amicably and peacefully. What we must look at is the best chance of winning, a candidate who can win. Our leader Ranil Wickremesinghe must sit down with Sajith Premadasa and Karu Jayasuriya and decide what is best for us. I acknowledge that there is a strong demand for Sajith. Even Speaker Jayasuriya has a role to play. We should not delay in taking a decision. This is most important. The party must first sort this out. There is nothing personal in this. It is the party’s interest that matters. We will have to win the presidential election.”

Rising election fever will heat up further next month in view of conventions both by the UNP and the SLPP. The four-month-old State of Emergency is being extended by another month because of the Kandy Esala Perehera. Hence, both the Police and the Security Forces will be empowered to deal with security issues arising out of new political developments.

There was an error in these columns last week. I said that the removal of the Police Chief was an involved process under the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. It does not relate to 19A. That is in terms of the Removal of Officers Act (No 5 of 2002). It relates to the removal of both the Inspector General of Police and the Attorney General.

This week’s political developments are a forerunner of the shape of things to come in the political front. The Opposition presidential candidate has now emerged, at least unofficially, so far. The nation awaits in awe over who will contest from the UNP-backed National Democratic Front (NDF) and what follows thereafter.