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Not all of them who attended a meeting of the Sri Lanka Nidhas Paksha Surakeemey Sanvidanaya or the Organisation to Protect the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) were members of that party. Yet, the indoor stadium was full. Through that, onetime President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga did succeed in delivering a strong political message to her erstwhile Minister and now President Maithripala Sirisena. “Sack me if you can,” it seemed to say.

Present to back her were non-SLFPers too. They included Minister Mangala Samaraweera, Minister Arjuna Ranatunga, brother Ruwan Ranatunga, Minister Rajitha Senaratne, Athauda Seneviratne, Milroy Fernando, Minister Rishad Bathiudeen, Vikramabahu Karunaratne, Kumara Welgama and Minister Mano Ganesan. The occasion was titled the “annual convention” of Api Sri Lanka or We are Sri Lanka, a grouping that signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the New Democratic Front (NDF). Kumaratunga was the key figure there. The five ministers, like the others, were present to lend support. After all, any Sri Lankan citizen, like the name of the grouping implies, could have been there.

Days ahead of this event, President Sirisena, still the de facto leader of the SLFP was infuriated. After that MoU, Kumaratunga and her allies were now ganging up under a new name to target him. Kumaratunga was one of the leaders responsible for foisting Sirisena as President and played a very important role in backroom moves in late 2014. She was now livid that the party that her father founded had been driven to the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) fold by the same man. No matter, she left the SLFP in 1984 to join the Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya (SLMP) founded by her late husband Vijaya Kumaratunga. She re-joined the SLFP only in 1991. If one thought she is now retired from politics, that is wrong. She is still her mercurial self, taking up one position, retracting and taking another thereafter. If she was driven by the anger towards the Rajapaksas when she lent her support to oust them, that inherent dislike continues.

On the other hand, President Sirisena was livid over Kumaratunga’s actions. Though Sirisena stands “neutral” over the November 16 presidential election, he told his close confidants she must be expelled from the party. Last week, he repeated this to many visitors he met at his Mahagamsekera Mawatha residence which he has reserved for himself with cabinet approval. They were calling on him to give an end of term farewell. A chorus of “yes” voices from the Central Committee (CC), the party’s policy making body, was all that was needed to kick her out, or so he thought. A hurried meeting was summoned for Tuesday night. This was revealed in the front-page lead story of the Sunday Times last week.

Former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga presiding at a convention held at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium to launch a campaign to protect the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. With her are several VIPs, including Ministers. Pic by Ishanka Sunimal

Sirisena’s parliament entry

The meeting lasted barely an hour. When it ended, television cameras were focused on two figures who are virtuosos in playing President Sirisena’s sonata. It was outside the SLFP headquarters at Darley Road. They are SLFP General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera and UPFA General Secretary Mahinda Ameraweera. Without batting an eyelid, the duo said that the issue of “expelling Chandrika Kumaratunga” did not figure at the CC meeting. Jayasekera declared it was summoned to discuss the conduct of a “peaceful poll” and to decide on replacements for those who took part in the meeting earlier that day. Ameraweera, who has virtually forfeited his credibility defending Sirisena, declared there was “no discussion about Chandrika Methiniya (Madam).”  They will say anything to defend Sirisena, who is the de facto leader of the SLFP, and the duo are senior members. Moreover, Sirisena is the co-leader of the SLPP-led Sri Lanka Podujana Nidhas Sandanaya (People’s Independent Freedom Alliance). The safest way to protect their positions, they believed, is by saying there is a drought when there are heavy floods and there is bright sunshine on a day that is very gloomy. They are least worried about public perceptions and political survival matters.

The CC meeting appeared to be presided over by acting Chairman Rohana Luxman Piyadasa who took a middle seat. He made remarks every now and then. However, President Sirisena had his say. Believe it or not, he declared that the disciplinary action against Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga would be taken up for discussion at the next Central Committee meeting. That put paid to any further deliberation on the subject. Sirisena had thus eaten his own words by changing his mind. He helped Kumaratunga win a place of prominence with those in the NDF. A date has not been fixed for a CC meeting and that would for all purposes not be held before the presidential election next weekend. As has been the practice during his near five-year presidential career, Sirisena changed his mind often. Contradictions have been a hallmark. Instances are far too many to list. Once he declared that he would not re-appoint Ranil Wickremesinghe as Premier even if 225 members of Parliament wanted it. That was during the political crisis in October last year. He reneged. Weeks earlier, the CC decided to support candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, two days later, Sirisena declared he would stay “neutral.” There was pressure from the rival National Democratic Front (NDF).

This time too, there was heavy pressure from the NDF. One of his ‘advisors,’ on whom he had become almost solely dependent in the past many months, told him that an expulsion of Kumaratunga would only wean away voters from Sajith Premadasa. The “self-appointed strategist” suggested that if he were to expel the onetime President, the CC should also decide to expel SLPP leader Mahinda Rajapaksa. He too had violated party discipline. That was costly. He was malleable and dropped the idea.

It was too sensitive a move because Sirisena has had a two-hour long meeting with SLPP National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa only just before. They had discussed a variety of issues including Sirisena’s own future political role. The SLPP architect took note of Sirisena’s areas of interest but gave no firm commitment. That was a matter for the SLPP-led alliance to decide upon and most of their leaders are not well disposed towards Sirisena. He only has seven more days of his term to complete. There was speculation, after the meeting, that if he does not end up as a minister, there was the prospect of becoming Speaker. That will place him third in the line of succession after the President and Prime Minister.  However, for that purpose, the current incumbent Karu Jayasuriya must resign or be ousted through a no-confidence motion. What will follow is an election through a secret ballot. Yet, the SLPP believes it has the clout to go through.

There was, however, a decision at the CC meeting. That was to immediately replace four electorate organisers who took part in Kumaratunga’s event at the indoor stadium. When the CC meeting was summoned, they were unaware of this fact. Replacements were named on Wednesday morning. Other than that, Sirisena heard complaints that the SLFP members were being hooted at SLPP rallies. He said they should not attend such rallies but hold their own meetings in support of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Among those who spoke on other issues were Dayasiri Jayasekera, Mahinda Samarasinghe, Duminda Dissanayake, Mahinda Amaraweera, Thilanga Sumathipala and Faiszer Musthapha. That is how the meeting intended to expel Chandrika Kumaratunga ended.

After backtracking on his decision to expel her from the party, Sirisena was still busy exploring ways. He has succeeded in persuading a National List MP from the UPFA to resign to make way for him to enter Parliament. This is after failing to convince Shantha Bandara and Thilanga Sumathipala, who are also National List MPs of the UPFA, to quit. Even the MP who had agreed will do so only after the presidential election. This is after Sirisena declared that he was fit to continue in politics and will not quit, a far cry from his earlier pledge to retire after one term. With that over, he has been locked in behind-the-scenes manoeuvres to gain a formal position. One source said that hinging on those manoeuvres is a possible broadcast to the nation Sirisena is mulling over. If he succeeds in a deal with the SLPP, he may not go on air, said the source. On the other hand, he has not lost hope with the NDF either.

Field Marshal’s bombshell

For President Sirisena, by a strange quirk of fate, his political archenemy Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe appears to have taken a second place. He is not pleased with Sajith Premadasa’s public announcement that he would place defence and security in the hands of Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka. And that has made the man who led troops to military victory against Tiger guerrillas his virtual enemy number one now. The reason, which has remained a secret, can be revealed today. FM Fonseka was a member of the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) that probed the April 21 Easter Sunday massacres.

He disagreed with the other members and had prepared a 35-page dissenting report for public release. That report had placed the blame for the events fairly and squarely on President Sirisena and his close confidant Nilantha Jayawardena DIG, who is the head of the State Intelligence Service (SIS), the country’s premier intelligence agency. It is known that Jayawardena worked closely with Sirisena. The latter promoted him from the rank of Senior Superintendent of Police to a DIG. Among those who served on the PSC, FM Fonseka was the only person with a knowledge of matters defence and had a studied, scientific perspective to offer. After all, he burnt midnight oil from his office at Army Headquarters during the conduct of the separatist war. More often, the red light at the entrance to the door was on, meaning that no one was allowed entry. He was hands on with the conduct of the war and has a thorough understanding of intelligence capabilities. Others in the PSC, however, had a different agenda and their findings were made public. That it included some ludicrous and politically biased conclusions is no secret. It had parallels to the PSC that probed the Central Bank bond scandal. Most of the truth emerged only after a Presidential Commission of Inquiry was appointed.

Crisis over Prime Minister

This caused serious concerns for Premier Wickremesinghe, who was one of the prime movers for the appointment of a PSC. After much effort, he and others took great pains and persuaded FM Fonseka not to release his dissenting report. That now remains a secret. Should he become the minister in charge, there is every prospect he would re-visit the Easter Sunday incidents and bring out the exact truth. This has triggered fears in some political circles where the role of some politicians was glossed over or where some important witnesses were not called.

Other than FM Fonseka, Sajith Premadasa, has made clear at election rallies that he had not identified any other persons for Cabinet positions. He went a step further on Thursday afternoon by making a special announcement on Sirasa television. He declared:” I want to clarify the conditions I have set for my candidacy with you. So, I don’t leave any doubt in anyone’s mind about my intention to change the politics in this country. Sri Lanka will have a new first time Prime Minister who will be endorsed by a majority of the Parliament.”

The visuals of these remarks make it clear that Premadasa displayed a high degree of unbridled self-confidence. Even the state-run Friday’s Daily News, which has been fully supportive of Premadasa’s election campaign, found it too hot to handle. It had to bury the remarks of a new Prime Minister in a front-page report that spoke about a “social revolution.” The Sunday Times learnt that at least three members of Premadasa’s family urged the remarks be made. This is in respect of Wickremesinghe’s continued dialogue with Abraham Sumanthiran of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) over their support to Premadasa. Last week, the Colombo-based Tamil politician announced verbally that the alliance would back Premadasa.

On Wednesday, the TNA followed it up with a three-page statement expressing support for Premadasa. It was signed by Rajavarothayam Sampanthan (Tamil National Alliance), Selvam Adaikalanathan (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi or Sri Lanka Federal Party), and Dharmalingam Siddharthan (Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation).

The operative paragraph in the statement said, “The issue of an acceptable political solution to the national question within a united undivided, indivisible country, the issue of missing persons, the issue of persons in custody, the release of lands, resettlement and rehabilitation, the implementation of commitments made by the Sri Lankan Government both domestically and internationally, need to be fulfilled, and the newly elected President would need to address these matters urgently. These issues need to be addressed not only in the interests of the Tamil People but also in the interests of the whole country and all the people.” Premadasa loyalists perceived the move as an effort to “tie him down” to an arrangement with the TNA. This is particularly in the absence of a dialogue between the NDF candidate and the TNA on these issues leave alone any consensus.

The statement added: “An examination of the Manifestos of the two candidates viewed along with their previous performance would suggest that reposing confidence in the candidature and programmes and polices of Mr. Sajith Premadasa of the New Democratic Alliance would be the correct course of action.”

Soon after the verbal announcement of support was made by Sumanthiran, protests were raised by sections of the Buddhist clergy and members of the SLPP backed alliance. They alleged that such TNA support was based on the 13 controversial demands put forward by five Tamil parties. This was denied by Premier Wickremesinghe. It is relevant to note that signing on behalf of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchchi, a key partner in the TNA, was Selvam Adailakanathan. He is also a signatory to the three-page statement put out by the TNA last Wednesday extending support to Premadasa.

Now to an interesting development. Party leaders met in Parliament on Friday to discuss matters pertaining to proposed legislation requiring Sri Lankans to adopt a single law. Opposition parliamentarian Bandula Gunawardena proposed a debate on the 13 demands put out by the five Tamil parties. Sumanthiran who represented the TNA declared “we have nothing to do with it.” This triggered an argument between Mahinda Samarasinghe and Sumanthiran. “You say you have nothing to do with it. However, your party has been a signatory,” declared Samarasinghe. He added that the TNA should publicly deny if they were not associated with the demands. Sumanthiran insisted there was no need for a statement since they had “nothing to do with it.”  Quite clearly Sumanthiran was embarrassed.

“Why should we,” he asked. Coming to Sumanthiran’s defence was Minister Lakshman Kiriella, the UNP Leader of the House. He acknowledged that the TNA had no role in the 13 demands, a claim which is far from fact. Sumanthiran’s new posture that the TNA is not associated with the 13 demands, its their member Mavai Senathirajah has signed it, places him in an awkward position. What does he have to say to the signature of Senathirajah? Surely the latter did not sign in secrecy. He has obviously shifted positions, one in Jaffna and another in Colombo, to make a case to support Premadasa. That he continued this dialogue with Wickremesinghe towards the new arrangement – the three-page statement – infuriated the Premadasa faction. It seemed ironic that many of his loyalists were unaware.

At the highest levels of the UNP, opinion over Premadasa’s announcement about a new Prime Minister, if he is elected President, was divided. Premadasa loyalists defended his remarks on the grounds that he had to counter “a great deal of misinformation spread in the south which could mislead the voter.” However, Wickremesinghe loyalists blamed Premadasa for “the impulsive and insensitive” remarks. However, for over 48 hours after the Premadasa statement, Wickremesinghe has maintained stoic silence. This is perhaps understandable. Any hostile reaction on his part could only draw him accusations that he is buckling the Premadasa election campaign.

On Friday, a Sri Lankan envoy to an Asian country met Premier Wickremesinghe and urged that immediate action be taken against Premadasa. He said that if the TNA should be called upon to withdraw their expression of support, Premadasa would lose. However, Wickremesinghe who listened to the plea did not make any comments and the matter ended there.

If Premadasa wins, how he will deny to Wickremesinghe the prospects to become Prime Minister will be a question. Only last month did the UNP annual convention endorsed Wickremesinghe as the party leader for the next five years until January 2024, and the party constitution says the party leader will be the leader of its parliamentary group. Premadasa will have to undo all of that before he ousts Wickremesinghe as party leader and then the next hurdle of getting a vote of no confidence on him passed by Parliament. Any other move will probably see a replay of the constitutional tangle Sirisena got into when he sacked Wickremesinghe in October last year.

A few of Wickremesinghe confidants, who won portfolios only because of their personal proximity, will probably also lose cabinet positions. Some of them have already been identified as not being involved in the election campaign. If Premadasa loses, it will no doubt see a new battle for the post of Leader of the Opposition. Again, Wickremesinghe remains the leader of the parliamentary group. Like denying him the candidature initially, Wickremesinghe is not expected to yield that office to Premadasa. That could mean a contest between the two of them. Even more importantly, the future of the UNP itself would come into focus.

Mangala’s MCC agreement

Since nominations, it has become abundantly clear, Premadasa has shown a high degree of aggressiveness and assertiveness. He put in place Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera who was hell bent on signing the MCC agreement with the United States of America. So much so, he and the US Embassy in Colombo agreed that the deal, which will lead to Sri Lanka receiving US$ 480 million, should be first signed and then placed in Parliament. When Samaraweera obtained cabinet approval, Sri Lankans were unaware of the contours of the agreement. Public pressure forced them to release it. This is not to say that the agreement is bad or good. It has not been studied carefully and there has been no public debate. It is not only the US $ 480 million that matters.

Samaraweera, who has spoken considerably from election platforms about dictatorship and authoritarianism, believed that after he obtained Cabinet approval, the agreement could be signed. His heavy leaning towards the US is no secret but he sought to sign it without making the agreement itself public. Much to his chagrin, he learnt there was opposition.  He had to have the report released. His reasoning was “show me one clause that is dangerous.” How could anyone do that without a study, just to fulfil his wish. Sajith Premadasa put paid to it. Thus, the dependence of the US Embassy on him and a few others to push through the MCC deal during elections have misfired and created more doubts in the public mind.

It took Venerable Ududumbara Kashyapa Thera, the Chief Incumbent at Colombo’s Vipassana Meditation Centre to launch a fast unto death to arouse the public conscience. A one-time engineer, the Ven. Kashyapa told the Sunday Times, “I called off the campaign after I received letters from the two candidates – Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa assuring me that the agreement would not be signed until after the November 16 presidential election. The same assurance was given by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.” The Venerable Thera made clear that the MCC deal was not transparent and an attempt was being made to surreptitiously rush it through.

It was Minister Samaraweera who tabled a cabinet memorandum and obtained approval for President Sirisena to receive an “attractive severance package.” The fuller details of the package are still not known. President Sirisena, in turn, chaired the Cabinet meeting where the MCC deal was approved though he was eloquent nothing would be done until after the presidential election.

In his letter to the monk, Gotabaya Rajapaksa said, “I am shocked about your “Sathyakkriya (fast unto death). I would therefore like to take note about this. All agreements signed by this government between the period of calling the presidential election until the election results are announced will be re considered subject to national security and sovereignty and if they are contrary to the national need, they would be cancelled. Therefore, I would humbly request you to call off the hunger strike.”

Sajith Premadasa said, “I would notify the Venerable Thero that the Sri Lanka government has decided not to sign the MCC agreement with United States of America before the presidential election, which is to be held on November 16, 2019, I would like to say that if the agreement is to be signed after the election then it would be done after having a dialogue regarding the matter within parliament as well as outside parliament. I assure that I would never enter into an agreement that is bad for the country and therefore I humbly request to keep the faith on me. We would go forward with the agreement only after discussing the matter with you and venerable Maha Sangha, only with your advice and blessing we would engage in further activities regarding this matter.”

There is a moral to politicians from this episode, particularly to Finance Minister Samaraweera.  Any surreptitious move to go against public opinion would boomerang. Samaraweera, a former Foreign Minister, should have known that on far reaching deals, money is not all that matters. It would be important to ensure a public dialogue instead of taking the moral high ground. Sajith Premadasa, whom he supports for the Presidency, has shown the way to him. So has Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Presidential poll predictions

This is a week in which many polls predictions are being made. The two main candidates have had their own surveys carried out with the results claiming victory for each of them. The State Intelligence Service (SIS), according to sources close to the Presidency, has forecast a six per cent lead for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, other seemingly independent surveys placed the lead higher – a position hotly contested by Premadasa loyalists. A lot is said to hinge on ‘floating votes’ which are said to number a 1.7 million. Added to that are questions over how much Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Mahesh Senananayake will poll.

Campaigning comes to an end on Wednesday midnight. The SLPP was able to run a well-coordinated and organised campaign at different levels. Professional groups, businessmen and volunteers were enlisted at grassroots level. Candidate Rajapaksa is expected to announce a relief package to the public to overcome complaints of high cost of living. He has received a thorough grinding addressing public rallies.

For Sajith Premadasa, there was a handicap for no fault of his. Haggling over his candidature took considerable time. As a result, he has been forced to focus on peripheral areas and not wholly at the grassroots level. The lack of a cohesive campaign at the grassroots level is evident in some areas.

Southern districts

During this campaign, one salient feature has been the absence of major violence. This has led particularly the foreign monitors to focus on other polls related issues like hate speech, campaign finances and the social media. In fact, the Elections Commission is in touch with operators of Facebook and social media platforms are being monitored. Special attention is to be paid to the latter during the blackout period from Wednesday. The Commission expects to announce results by dawn on Sunday. However, it has decided for an eventuality if neither side gets 50 percent plus one vote. In such a case, the result could be announced only after two days, said an official. Some 400,000 state officials will be on duty on polls day. They are expected to take up positions the previous day and remain in the polling centres. Security forces personnel have been tasked to provide support to the Police who will be deployed on election duty.

A tour of the southern districts leaves one with the inevitable feeling that they are weighted towards Gotabaya Rajapaksa. These are the districts of Galle, Matara, Hambantota and even Moneragala. The Rajapaksa camp however is mindful that these were districts they won in 2015 as well, but lost the overall count. Sajith Premadasa is expected to win comfortably in the Nuwara Eliya district and districts in the North and East. Colombo and Gampaha, where the numbers game plays out heavily, will also be vital for both.

Even if signs of next week’s polls are rare in the south, like offices of candidates, other serious issues which will impact on the polls have surfaced. Main among them is how the tourism industry, particularly hotels, have been literally killed by the April 21 Easter Sunday massacres. Many hotels have launched an economy drive by selling rooms at manageable rates with restriction on food. In one resort in the border of Galle and Matara, a restaurant served for dinner Tom Yum seafood soup. It was neither tom nor yum but a black cocktail with tiny pieces of fish. The hotel, however, was in an excellent setting. The choice left for guests was only prawns, either grilled or in thick coconut sauce. Their predicament is underscored by the need to sell rooms at a cheaper rate and be restrictive on food.

In another sprawling resort in Hambantota, usually forbidden for locals (including the Ayurveda massages), guests did not number more than five. Here again, cut rate rooms were accompanied by a dinner which included carrot salad, fish or chicken. The tourist traffic had virtually stopped. Paying staff and keeping their business alive has become a difficult task.

A tour operator said that the impact of the Easter Sunday attacks have been crippling on the tourist industry. This is whilst politicians and security officials keep pointing fingers at each other in Colombo for the incidents. Staff including waiters and kitchen assistants recruited from the local area had to be retrenched. If they were in receipt of Rs 40,000 to Rs 50,000 as service charge when the hotel was functioning, it has whittled down to less than Rs 1000. “We don’t know how we are going to pay back our bank loans,” said one of the managers. Local job agencies were busy looking for foreign opportunities for the hotel workers.

Next Sunday, Sri Lankans will greet a new President. By then political promises would end and he would have to go into action pronto. There are indications there would be a new government and fresh parliamentary elections thereafter. The two main candidates, Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa have spoken in strong terms about fighting corruption. They are aware that action is the need of the day.