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This is to determine whether there should be a ‘snap poll’ ahead of the national New Year or sometime thereafter. The occasion was a meeting of the government parliamentary group in the Parliament complex.

Premier Rajapaksa spoke on the prospects of dissolving Parliament at midnight on March 2, the earliest date by which a dissolution is possible. The earliest an election could be constitutionally held, he noted, was on or after April 25. The question was how the MPs would react if this were to be the final dates.

There was a lengthy discussion. Most parliamentarians noted that between April 10 and April 20, people would be engaged in national New Year festivities. There would be little or no appetite for politics during this period. They were of the view that there would be difficulties conducting a polls campaign during this period. There were yet others who were in favour of ‘snap’ polls if the dates mentioned could be avoided. Such a move would necessitate the support of opposition parties since a two thirds vote is required in Parliament to facilitate an early dissolution. This has, however, been ruled out in the light of the internecine crisis within the opposition itself.

In terms of Parliamentary Elections Act, (the President shall, in every Proclamation Nomination dissolving Parliament or in any Order requiring the holding date of an election, specify:

• The period (referred to as the “nomination period”) during which nomination papers shall be received by the returning officer during normal office hours at his office; and the date on which the poll shall be taken.
• The nomination period shall commence on the tenth day after the date of publication in the Gazette of the Proclamation or Order and expire at twelve noon on the seventeenth day after the date of publication of such Proclamation or Order; and
•  The date fixed for elections shall be— a day not less than five weeks and not more than seven weeks from the closing day of the nomination period; and if, after the publication of the Proclamation or Order, the day specified in such Proclamation or Order is declared to be a public holiday, such declaration shall in no way affect the validity of anything done on such day for the purpose of taking the poll.

The move came as the ruling alliance led by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) went into high gear to prepare for parliamentary elections. This is with the return to Sri Lanka from the United States of its principal architect and National Organiser, Basil Rajapaksa. He is billed to take over as the alliance’s General Secretary, a position under which he will exercise authority to sign nomination papers of its candidates.

Basil Rajapaksa spoke to a cross section of the SLPP membership at a meeting at the party headquarters in Battaramulla early this week. One of the main issues that he addressed was to allay fears in the rank and file over appointments to state institutions. This is after the perception that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was only naming professionals and those qualified. There were claims that in the process some key supporters have been left out.

Basil Rajapaksa defended the course of action by President Rajapaksa and declared that it did not mean others in the party, who had merit and worked tirelessly, were being ignored. It was noteworthy that six members of the party’s Kantha Samithis have been named as chairpersons to state enterprises. “There is lot more time,” he said and added that “when one received an appointment, there were a few who always felt they needed it too. That was a time-consuming task and he urged those in the party to appreciate the position.

In the SLPP leadership circles, the current concern is the number of seats they could secure for their own party apart from that of their partners. They were of the view that securing a target to achieve a two thirds majority was out of the question in view of the existing proportional representation system. In the light of that, senior SLPP leaders say their aim was to obtain at least 120 seats. This, they point out, will just be above the 113-majority required in a 225 seat Parliament. The thinking here is to ensure that none of their allies could hold them to ransom when there is a working majority. This would mean that in the event of constitutional changes, it will require the support of other political parties.

In the past, there has been only two such occasions. One was under President Ranasinghe Premadasa when the United National Party (UNP) won 125 seats at the

1989 parliamentary elections. The other was at the 2010 parliamentary elections under President Mahinda Rajapaksa where the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) won 144 seats.

Changing ground realities

A far more significant political development where the SLPP will contest with its allies without the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) is highly likely. This is particularly in the light of what the SLPP leadership at the highest level refer to as the “changing ground realities.” Ahead of the presidential election, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the SLFP and the SLPP. In terms of this, then President Maithripala Sirisena was designated as a co-leader of the alliance. This was together with Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has since become Premier. It is pointed out that the joint level leadership was because Sirisena was then President of Sri Lanka. “Such an equation no longer exists,” said one leader who pointed out that like other allies, Sirisena also simply heads another political party. Therefore, his right to claim special status does not exist.”

That is not all. The SLPPers are insistent that every candidate under their umbrella should contest under their party’s ticket. In the case of the SLFP, senior leaders say, they would have no objections to SLFP candidates contesting under the Betel Leaf symbol. However, they are categoric that candidature would have to be from the SLPP.

In real terms, the SLPP wants to raise the bar and leave SLFP to clear it or go its own way. The reasons are many. The most important one revolves around Maithripala Sirisena over whom there is much more than an element of doubt. Firstly, it was his decision to back the candidature of Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the presidential election and later back out on the grounds that he wanted to remain “neutral.” During that period, SLPP leaders confessed, they have reason to believe he ‘flirted’ with the idea of backing Sajith Premadasa. “In fact, there was considerable interaction where the two sides exchanged views during meetings arranged by two key intermediaries,” said one source.

The SLPP leaders also want to avoid a scenario, though not likely, as a precautionary measure. That is the fear, should the SLFP win a certain number of seats, Sirisena could retain the possibility of crossing over to the opposition. Hence the demand of the SLPP to contest under its aegis is partly due to this. In reality, that means a mistrust on Sirisena due to his past performance. There are fears over his credibility.

During the presidential election campaign, an eleventh-hour development, however, forced Sirisena to put a halt to his trysts with Premadasa. It came immediately after the first rally of the UNP led New Democratic Front (NDF) at the Galle Face Green on October 10, last year. There, Premadasa announced that, if elected, Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka would be his Defence Minister. The move angered Sirisena. He had previously rejected calls by then Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe to place the Police Department under Fonseka. He declined. Nevertheless, SLPP leaders alleged that he tacitly backed Premadasa in “the belief he would win.”

The reality of the new line of SLPP thinking is clear. If Sirisena agrees, he would have to serve under Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is the leader. That is after the SLFP accepts that it would be part of the SLPP and contest the parliamentary elections under its name. Both are difficult demands for Sirisena and his party.

As reported in the Sunday Times (political commentary) last week, “in what appears to be a significant move, former President Maithripala Sirisena convened a meeting of the People’s Alliance (PA), a precursor to the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA). The PA has among its members those who are now with the SLPP. At this meeting it was decided to re-name the People’s Alliance as the Sri Lanka Podujana Nidahas Sandhanaya (SLPNS).

“Nimal Siripala de Silva, senior Vice President of the SLFP, said “Thirteen political parties are in this alliance. In this Constitution, the power of the Executive Committee will be shared with 51 percent for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), 31 percent to the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the rest to the other parties. The Secretary, the Treasurer and the Vice President positions will be for the SLPP. There will be joint leaders Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa……”  This in fact was a repetition of the contents of their MoU.

Even the equations set out by Minister de Silva are expected to change. Once again, this is at a time when a handful of SLFP MPs are set in two different directions — some to join the SLPP and others to the New Democratic Front (NDF) or the new name it would assume soon. The political reality of these developments would mean that the SLFP would be further emaciated. An alliance with Premadasa under a new name is not possible. That would be anathema for them since Ranil Wickremesinghe will still remain the leader. Sirisena thus finds himself boxed in. On the other hand, for the United National Party (UNP), too, the crisis has taken a different turn.

Premadasa’s broader alliance

Though Premadasa and his loyalists boycotted the last Working Committee meeting, they have veered around to accepting Wickremesinghe’s leadership. The terms have been spelt out. Ranil Wickremesinghe will remain the leader of the UNP. He will allow the UNP to join hands with former New Democratic Front (NDF) and other parties to form a “broader alliance.” That has been agreed upon and will be endorsed by the party’s Working Committee at its meeting tomorrow (Monday). The opposition parliamentary group this week endorsed the appointment of Moneragala District parliamentarian and former minister Ranjith Madduma Bandara as the General Secretary of the new alliance.

Interesting enough, such an alliance would function under a different name. Premadasa and his close supporters have had offers from three different persons holding registered political parties. They have picked one of them and are holding it a closely guarded secret. There are discussions on how the name and symbol of the one they acquire should be changed. It is under such a new party and symbol that the “broader alliance” will contest the upcoming parliamentary elections.

There are both pluses and minuses in the arrangement. The pluses for Premadasa and his loyalists are somewhat substantial. With no UNP candidate in the fray on their ticket, it is the new party that will campaign during the polls. Hence, from now onwards till the parliamentary polls are over, it is that new party and not the UNP that will be consolidated. Therefore, the question is how much of a strong footprint could Premadasa and his loyalists make on the country’s political firmament. If the new party is successful and ends up with the backing of its allies, it is not the number of seats it wins that would count. It is the degree of grassroots level support it receives to emerge as a new political entity and the popularity base it would develop.

Conversely, that would impact not only on the image of the UNP but also on its existence as a major political party. Though Wickremesinghe has won by resisting moves to oust him as the UNP leader, a new political party and a new political alliance would come as a tremendous challenge for him. The more the latter grows, the more such a challenge would grow. The name UNP will not be known for five years, until the next parliamentary elections. Contesting local and provincial polls also becomes an issue. That is notwithstanding the close support many Wickremesinghe loyalists are extending him. There is already some unease. One of them, a former controversial Minister and arch-rival of Premadasa asked leader Wickremesinghe to name him as Deputy Leader of the new “broader alliance.” However, his request did not meet with success.

Thus, the country’s two major political parties – the SLFP and the UNP – are both at crossroads. Their future journey will no doubt be dictated to by the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections. It could also see a polarisation of ethnic groups though not on party lines.