Sunday Times 2
A two-thirds majority: Magic wand or crown of thorns?
Most Lanka’s political leaders, yearn for a two-thirds majority in parliament. They probably recall JRJ’s description of the potential constitutional power he wielded with his 5/6th majority such as making a man a woman and vice-versa. But constitutional sex changes and many other powers that a two-thirds majority vests with an executive president apart, it burdens the holder of the office with an impossible load which an electorate expects him to carry.
This ‘burden’, of course, is of their own making—rash, reckless and knowingly impossible promises made—collectively called the party mandate—which they presented to seduce voters.
Winning an election convincingly even when a two-thirds majority is not required may cause problems because of false notions entertained by voters on powers bestowed on the winner on his election.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa polled 52.25 percent of the total number of votes in his convincing victory in November last year, but some voters are of the opinion that he should have got cracking on the job from Day One on his own even though he needs parliamentary sanctions for many such actions.
The 100th Day of his presidency is now over and farmers are demanding from him the free fertiliser promised. Apart from free fertiliser, there is no fertiliser in the market, they say while Rajapaksa’s Pohottuwa party supporters are saying that the UNP-led regime had not paid fertiliser companies for massive amounts of fertiliser supplied to the government.
Passing the buck to their predecessors for their impotence—however genuine the excuse may be—is laughed out of court as old hat. Rajapaksas can blame Chandrika, Chandrika will say it was the work of the UNP—Premadasa and JR— and they said it was the fault of Mrs. B and N M Perera and so on till the time of Independence.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa wants a two-thirds majority to bring alive his Vistas of Splendour and Prosperity—the title of his manifesto. A vision for a resurgent and prosperous country, the manifesto says is a result of a series of discourses, interactions conducted in 25,000 villages throughout the country during the past one year.
Requirements of housing, electricity, drinking water, access roads and irrigation facilities in every village have been identified. Specialist Committees consisting of 540 persons covering 28 subject areas considered all these proposals and prepared this document, states the manifesto. And to implement these proposals he needs the Pohottuwa (Flower Bud) Party to win two-thirds of the seats in parliament.
What he has not said loud and clear is that he needs, money—hard currency-to pay off a multibillion dollar debt before or while he embarks on his Visions or Splendour and Prosperity. With enough votes in parliament and overhyped Pohottuwa legislators, they can pass laws even to build Sigiriya type palaces on the mountains of the Sea of Tranquility on the Moon but to build even concrete Premadasa models houses back at home billions of rupees are called for. Gotabaya doesn’t even have the rupees.
Where is the money to come from? Xi Jingping once he gets rid of the CORVID-19 virus may oblige. But he is obsessed with building a string of pearls round India’s sea routes in the Indian Ocean and will want more pearls from Lanka—Trinco, Colombo North Dockyard, Colombo City in addition to Hambantota and Mattala that China has already built. Maybe, they will leave Sooriyawewa playgrounds for Namal and his brothers to play. No more gifts such as the BMICH and Nelum Pokuna will be forthcoming. China gave up ping pong diplomacy quite a while ago.
The new Lanka Pearls searched for will naturally annoy New Delhi, our Big Brother who has always considered Sri Lanka his backyard that no one else can enter. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa in his recent visit to India said that while ‘China is our friend India is our relation’ and followed it up with request for a three-year moratorium on loans taken from India.
Nothing has been heard from New Delhi about that slender Sri Lankan touch for the Indian purse but Narendra Modi is having severe setbacks with its ‘fastest growing economy in the world’ dropping from a growth rate of 6 percent to around four percent. Some Indian economic analysts have postulated that earlier calculations were based on wrong assumptions.
Indians and Sri Lankans claim endearing relationships to each other at opportune times for each side. Right now Sri Lankans want to warm the relationship. Five years ago, the Rajapaksas were furious, claiming a coup was staged by Indian intelligence that ousted them from power. All that bad blood has been lost in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean in the past five years, Rajapaksas will hoping.
But relations between the big brother and small brother could sour if Sino-Lanka relations warm up.
Other political leaders in the forthcoming parliamentary fray too will hope for a two-thirds majority. The UNP is still the biggest and oldest political party in the country despite the internal political strife. There is Sajith Premadasa threatening to lead a new coalition. But if Sajith scores a victory with a two-thirds majority he will be in the same boat as Gotabaya having gone on a bidding spree trying to out beat his rival during the presidential election campaign.
‘Anything you can do I can do better’ was the Premadasa refrain in the campaign. For example when Gotabaya promised free fertiliser for paddy farmers Sajith promised the same for farmers of all varieties of crops: vegetables, fruits and even some unmentionables for women.
But how will Sajith be able to keep to the promises he made during the presidential election campaign? Where will he find the hard currency? Sajith the home grown politician will find a home grown solution it being that that the interest shown by the big powers and regional ones are not inspired by the Rajapaksas or Wickremesinghe but because of Sri Lanka and what it is worth for.
What of Ranil Wickremasinghe, the UNP leader?
He, too, will be contesting the parliamentary election. Remember he always polled the highest number of votes whether his party won or lost.
Ranil seems not to be worried about winning a two-thirds majority. He probably has one already and that is why he is hinting at a national government with the Pohottuwa.
But will that National Unity government last long? Wouldn’t the SLFPers who joined the Pohottuwa say: ‘We did not break up our party to unite again with the UNP?’ Besides would those fiery extremist Sinhala Buddhists, the anti-Ranil pro-nurses leaders who are forever threatening to stage hunger strikes move into action once again?
A leading intellectual from a new think tank, Atharamaga, summarised: A two-thirds majority without money to keep to the pledges made will only lead to you being lambasted by your own supporters. So why not go for a bare majority and tell the critics it’s their fault for not producing a two-thirds majority?
Quite a ‘Mallung’ no? Gridlocked I say, said an Atharamaga think-tanker.
Much more than that. It’s No Hellung Pol Mallung added another think-tanker from Jampacked Maga.
(The writer is a former editor of the Island )