Wait-and-see
View(s):Whew! What a week and we are only at the beginning of the biggest-ever wait-and-see that the world has experienced in modern history.
The ‘choon paan karaya’ was erratic with his bread and savouries’ delivery during curfew hours. Mobile bakers have been allowed to distribute items during the curfew.
For the very first time, the regular under-the-margosa tree conversations were not happening, as Kussi Amma Sera, Mabel Rasthiyadu and Serapina have been in lockdown in their work-homes due to the curfew. There was absolute silence this bright Thursday morning except for the welcome chirping of the birds.
There was order in some areas and chaos in others when the curfew was lifted for a few hours on Tuesday. There were disciplined lines of shoppers outside supermarkets, while at other shops and vegetable vendors, crowds gathered, some wearing face masks, some without.
By the way, what is the real story behind face masks? While health authorities insist that a face mask is not necessary unless you are sick and don’t want to infect another person, even politicians attending an all-party meeting this week convened by Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa wore face masks.
As I looked at the deserted margosa tree this Thursday morning seeking inspiration for this Sunday’s column, the phone rang. It was Pedris Appo, short for Appuhamy, a retired agriculture expert who now does a little farming.
“Hello Appo, nice to hear from you after a long time,” I said, glad to talk to him after many weeks, and finding a reason to get over the boredom of this prolonged curfew.
“Yes, it has been a while. The lifting of the curfew and long lines outside supermarkets and other shops are a reminder of the 1970-1977 period when there was a shortage of food due to reduced imports and the crisis we went through during that period,” he said.
“Yes I recall as youngsters how we cycled to the bakery and waited patiently to get that loaf of bread. Today, the queue era comes with a difference when people come in their cars, motorbikes or three wheelers and wait patiently in queues,” he said, adding: “The biggest worry is the daily wage earner who doesn’t have the money to buy food as their source of income has dried up.”
“Yes it’s unfortunate,” I said, adding that in some households, daily wage workers affected by the curfew were being paid – as a kind gesture – irrespective of whether they worked or not.
According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), daily wage workers are the worst affected. The ILO estimates that as many as 25 million people globally could become unemployed, with a loss of workers’ income of as much as US$3.4 trillion and that these numbers may be an underestimation of the magnitude of the labour crisis.
Continuing the conversation, Appo said that the uncertainty and wait (for some positive news) were the biggest problems in the crisis. “No one knows when the crisis would end and what to look for,” he said.
“I think we might be in a 21-day lockdown with next week also likely to be a curfew week with the curfew relaxed for a few hours on one day for people to get their essential food and medicine,” I said.
We ended the conversation after discussing many issues connected to COVID-19.
Meanwhile, while the government’s initiative to seek the support and assistance of opposition political parties in the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic is welcome, the best example of working together irrespective of political differences, came from the Netherlands where a new Health Minister from the opposition was appointed in the battle against the new coronavirus. That country, however, is in a worse state than those in Asia, barring China. In the Netherlands, 5,560 cases have been reported while 276 have died.
The pandemic has battered the Sri Lankan economy in imaginable and unimaginable ways. The worst hit are the factories and workers, particularly those in the free trade zones. With most factories employing daily wage workers through manpower agencies, no work and a continuing curfew mean these workers don’t have a daily wage and cannot return to their homes in faraway villages due to the curfew. It’s a terrible struggle for these workers living mostly in overcrowded accommodation in Katunayake and Biyagama, among other areas. Unions are urging the government to grant some relief to these workers.
The US dollar is nearing the Rs. 190 mark, with a shortage of the currency in the market. The Central Bank intervened with a stoppage of non-essential imports including motor vehicles in a bid to reduce demand for the dollar but to what extent this would work remains to be seen.
The tea market, Sri Lanka’s main commodity export, is in the doldrums hit by the prolonged curfew affecting the auction, a drought that has disrupted production amidst crashing oil prices that would reduce tea demand in West Asian markets.
Exports have been affected due to disruptions in the supply chain of raw materials required to produce finished goods. Trade and industrial chambers have urged the government to get Sri Lankan missions abroad to find new sources of raw material for Sri Lanka’s export sector after the disruption in China, one of the main sources of raw material. The worst hit in this case is the apparel industry.
Another source of concern is the hundreds of West Asia-bound workers who are unable to go back or start new jobs overseas, while with the number of tourists dwindling by the day, hotels are expected to shut down resulting in an uncertain future for thousands of hotel workers, particularly contract staff.
As I wind up my column, Kussi Amma Sera – who was snoring away a while ago in her room – walks into my office room bleary-eyed with a cup of tea, asking, “Sir, me loku karadara kavada evara weida (Sir when will this crisis end)?”
“Wena kattiya wage, mama danne ne (Like everyone else I am also not sure),” I reply, looking out of the window at the blue skies, wondering whether the gods have an answer.